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Bitter Fan’s Preview of Saturday’s Dook Game

Friday, March 5th, 2010

I haven’t written any basketball game previews this season, but this game is special, so I’ll make an exception and chalk up a position-by-position breakdown of Saturday night’s matchup with the Devil Worshiping Dukies from Durham.

Where the prose turns perilously acidic, remember: 1) I’m a suffering Tar Heel fan rooting for a team that might not make the NIT 2) Aside from the cheap shots, I have done my best to remain objective and reasonable in my analysis of Duke’s roster.

Guard- Jon Scheyer (only 39% FG in ACC play; 3 or more 3 PT made in 6 straight ACC games and 10 of 14 ACC games overall)

While his shooting percentages have dropped like Greg Paulus on a fast break, Scheyer has significantly improved as a basketball player this season. He’s a clutch shooter who creates for his teammates and doesn’t do anything stupid with the ball. And in a matchup with Larry Drew II and the young Tar Heel backcourt, that’s a huge advantage for Duke.

Guard- Nolan Smith (33% FG over last 6 games)

Smith has also earned my respect this season. He’s a crafty scorer who can fundamental-you to death with fifteen footers and short runners in the lane. And of course—since Smith’s one of the 3 S’s (spoiler alert: Expect Dick “Duke” Vitale to refer to Duke’s talented triumvirate as the 3 S’s at least 29 times during the broadcast), you know he can shoot the trifecta, to the tune of 41%.

Forward- Kyle Singler (25 of 50 from 3PT over last 8 games; 8 turnovers in 8 games; 48 TO in previous 21 games)

When Singler can stroke it from downtown, watch out. He also moves exceptionally well without the basketball. I’d tell the young people out there to watch Singler closely and mimic his sharp cuts without the ball, but I’m afraid that they might also mimic his Doug Funnie hair cut as well. I weep for the future.

Forward- Lance Thomas (shooting career high 79% FT this year; season high is only 13 pts. vs Clemson)

Thomas doesn’t get enough credit for his role on this Duke team. He’s always been important as a screener and an offensive rebounder, and this year’s no different. But in 2010, Thomas has improved his mid-range jump shot and also his free throw percentage, making him much more of a scoring threat than in years past, when the Lance-a-Lance strategy punished the Devils by putting the Brick-tacular Thomas on the charity stripe. In February’s matchup vs. Carolina, Thomas snagged 4 offensive rebounds, giving Duke 4 more shot opportunities in very close game.

Center- Brian Zoubek (7.8 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 1.2 blocks over last 5 games; never played more than 11 minutes in a game against UNC)

I’ve probably been one of Zoubek’s most outspoken critics over the years. He came into Durham as a five-star recruit, and since, has exhibited approximately five decent post moves…total (I don’t mean that he has five moves in his repertoire. I mean that he has literally made five post moves EVER in games, without traveling). I’ll admit that he’s as good as he’s ever been this season. (Miraculously, he had 16 points and 17 boards against Maryland!) Still, he’s slow, clunky, and almost never a factor against the Heels. Expect Brian to be on the bench for most of Saturday’s game, picking at his cave-man beard.

BENCH

Forward- Mason Plumlee

Mason Plumlee might be Duke’s best athlete, an accolade comparable to being McDonald’s healthiest dessert option or the fastest kid at fat camp. Still, Mason had a huge outing in Chapel Hill earlier this year in which he threw down an enormous two-hand reverse dunk and tipped  number of long rebounds into the wiry hands of Jon Scheyer. These offensive rebounds are more crucial this season than ever because Duke has tended to play low-scoring, low-possession ACC games in which every shot attempt is critically important.

Other Duke players not described (”If you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all”): Guard Andre Dawkins, Forward Miles Plumlee, Forward Ryan Kelly

CAROLINA WINS IF…

1) Duke finishes with five or less offensive rebounds…

2) Carolina holds Duke’s big three to less than 6 made three pointers.

3) Carolina forces 15 or more turnovers AND outrebounds Duke.

4) Tyler Hansbrough parachutes in during introduction of starting lineups, starts at center.

WHAT TO DO IF THE GAME GETS UGLY

1) Drink every time Vitale says “3 S’s,” “Dukies,” or “spectacular.”

2) During commercial breaks, have “Scheyer face” staring contests. First person to laugh has to hold the Scheyer face until the next commercial.

3) Drink every time Zoubek gets a foul. That is to say, drink every 2 minutes that Zoubek is on the court.

SCORE PREDICTION:

Duke 73 Carolina 68

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As Drew II Goes, So Go the Heels

Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010

As the Tar Heels have trekked through a very stormy 2009-2010 season, fans have pelted point guard Larry Drew II with an onslaught of verbal snowballs and blustery boos, as if he were TJ Yates or something.

Still, it’s undeniable that Drew II has played a critical role in each of the team’s five ACC wins.

Don’t believe me? Check out the numbers.

In UNC’s five ACC wins, Drew has averaged 12.6 points,  7.2 assists and just 2 turnovers. Those exceptional numbers (more assists and a better assist to TO ration than Ty Lawson had last year) become even better when we look at his shooting percentages in those wins: 54% shooting from the field and 50% shooting from 3 PT range.

In the Heels’ 10 ACC losses, Larry drew blank time after time, averaging just 7.4 points, 5.1 assists and 4 turnovers while shooting 31% from the field and 26% from 3 PT range. Gross. And those 3 PT numbers are drastically inflated by his uncanny ability to hit trifectas with the game well out of reach.

So what can we learn from this interesting, statistical tidbit?

Not much. We could probably find some similar trends for other Tar Heel players, since (this just in) teams put up better statistics when they win.

The important thing to remember though is this. Love him or hate him, Larry Drew II is a very important part of this basketball team. When he plays well, the Heels look great, I smile a lot more, and life just seems more fulfilling. When he doesn’t, the team looks awful and the cries for football season to start get a little bit louder.

During the team’s last few games, cheer your hearts out for #11 Larry Drew, regardless of how much you’ve disliked his play so far this year. If he can play well against Duke and in the ACC tournament, there’s a damn good chance UNC will end the season on a high note.

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Making an Effort to Make an Effort

Friday, February 26th, 2010

All season long, we’ve heard a thousand reasons why this basketball team full of McDonald’s All-Americans has gotten Whoppered night in and night out by less talented teams. They’re young, inexperienced, scared, and tense. They haven’t learned the playbook, defended well, or communicated effectively. All of these excuses (though they are just that—excuses) are at least reasonable.

Other reasons? Well…the transition from high school to the ACC paralyzes plenty of freshmen while the burden of replacing Hansbroughs and Lawsons would weigh down even the most experienced seniors. Along with a terrible case of the injury bug (more like the injury Ebola virus), these are also pretty legitimate explanations as to why this year’s team won’t be playing in the big boy tournament come late March.

However, the real pickle in my UNC-fan burger (I asked for NO PICKLES) is this team’s  lack of effort.  But don’t take my word for it…

In many of the Tar Heels’ flat-line post game press conferences, players have cited effort and energy as factors in the Heels’ losses and that should never, ever happen.

Graves (after GT loss in January):  “Honestly, I just feel it’s lackadaisicalness. We’re just too lax on the court.”

Thompson (after UVa loss in January: “…the intensity wasn’t there as a group. I don’t know why it wasn’t there.”

Roy Williams (after the Duke loss): “They seemed to be more hungry.”

Drew II (after GT loss in February): “The minute a team makes a run on us, if we’re not able to respond to that run, we just kind of shut down.”

Henson (after GT loss in February): “I think we started to play with a sense of desperation once we got down.”

If you’re getting a free education and a chance to play basketball for a Hall of Fame Coach at the best basketball school in the nation, you should come out intense every night…no exceptions.

Even if we lose every one of our remaining games, I want to see a fiery effort from the players. That means diving on the floor AFTER warmups and getting angry at big deficits. I’m certainly not advocating that we lose our composure, but I’d love to see some players on this team look ANGRY (not drained or apathetic!) when faced with a ten point deficit.

Roy Williams has recently bemoaned the relative lack of crowd support at the usually packed Dean Dome. It’s hard to defend our fan base’s spotty attendance record(can you say fair weather fans?), but it’s not hard to present a simple solution to the problem. WIN GAMES.

And winning games starts with consistent effort every night.

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2010-2011 Tar Heels: An Early Glimpse

Sunday, February 14th, 2010

I’m proud of the way the Tar Heels pulled out a double digit. 74-61 win today against the NC State Wolfpack.

Once again, our rivals of the red and white reminded us that rock bottom in Raleigh is (Sidney) Lower than anything we’ve experienced this year in Chapel Hill.

Still, this season—this past week in particular—has left me feeling empty inside. Every time I turn on ESPN, I see NCAA tournament projections, and a host of analysts blabbing about bracketology and bubble teams. And for the first time in my life**, I envy those teams bouncing around outside the big dance, but in view of the ticket booth.

As sports fans, we love obsessing over the near future, and this year’s UNC squad has almost deprived us of that bracket-filling pleasure. I’ve never dreamed of NIT game winners, or CBI slam dunks, but those (like it or not) are our brightest possible postseason destinations this year.

So it’s time for a way, way, way too early glance at the 2010-2011 North Carolina Tar Heels basketball squad.

(**Well, not exactly the first time. Before I came to UNC, I was a Virginia Tech fan, by blood. In that NIT-hungry basketball culture, being on the NCAA bubble (and on ESPN) is like being shown on the JumboTron at a huge arena. You wave, smile, and maybe drop your popcorn until the camera pans to someone else. But at least you had your moment, right?)

Projected Starters:

PG- Larry Drew II- People forget that in our 3 ACC wins this year, Drew II has averaged 16 points 7 assists and 2 turnovers. He’s shown a much improved outside stroke and has averaged 6 assists for the season, despite a relative lack of scorers around him. He’ll never be an ACC superstar like Ty Lawson, but with offensive talents like Reggie Bullock and Harrison Barnes around, he won’t ever have to be.

SG-Dexter Strickland- Strickland will make the switch back to the 2 position in 2010. Expect a more confident shooting stroke and a lot more transition points from Dexter in 2010-2011. He’s the fastest player on the team and a force defensively, so Roy will have a hard time keeping him out of the starting five.

SF- Harrison Barnes- Barnes, rated as the #1 overall recruit in the country by ESPNU, combines natural scoring ability with a chiseled, 6′8 frame. He’s a great passer, a horse in transition, and a smooth shooter. Judging from his signing day press conference, Barnes is all business—and shouldn’t have a problem learning the Roy Williams system. Chalk him up for 12-15 points per game next season.

PF- John Henson- With starter’s minutes, Henson could average 3-4 blocks per game. His jump shot, free throw stroke, and well, body, weight could use some bulking up before 2010. Still, his offensive rebounding and versatility will make him a guarantee first round pick and an indispensable part of next year’s Tar Heels.

C- Tyler Zeller- Tyler Zeller’s teased us all over the past two seasons, throwing down thunderous slams—but mostly just sitting down, due to ankle and wrist injuries. He’s a steady offensive presence and a powerful rebounder who should thrive in a full season.

Bench

PG- Kendall Marshall- Marshall does a super job of finding creative passing angles and running a fast break offense. He’ll be a high-energy guy off the bench who plays 15-20 minutes per game. Sometimes, offenses merely tread water without their starting PG in the game. That will not be the case with Kendall Marshall and this UNC offense.

SG- Reggie Bullock- Reggie’s an exceptional shooter who will give this team a legitimate scoring threat off the bench. Think Wayne Ellington with more size and strength, and a bit less consistency from outside the arc.

F- David Wear- Wear has a Hansbrough-esque jump shot that stretches beyond the 3 PT line, and solid defensive versatility.

SF- Will Graves- This year, Graves has shown more offensive aggressiveness than just about anyone else on the team. He hits the offensive boards hard and has a knack for hitting big shots. Barnes will replace him in the starting lineup, but he’ll still see a lot of game action.

PF- Travis Wear- Like his brother, he’s a decent inside scorer and rebounder who will find a way to contribute to the 2010-2011 UNC squad.

Early, early 2010-2011 Postseason Projection: 2 seed, Final Four appearance

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And the Scheduling Gods Smiled Upon Us

Saturday, February 6th, 2010

Sep. 4- LSU (Atlanta)

Butch Davis couldn’t have asked for a better season-opener than this one. LSU represents the perfect blend of program prestige and  vulnerability. It’s extremely early, but I really don’t think that this year’s Bayou Bengals will match up well against North Carolina. For starters, they lose their best running back (Scott), their best receiver (LaFell), and their best offensive lineman (Ciron Black). Defensively, they lose 5 of their front 7 as well as their most experienced cornerback.

What they won’t lose, thanks to stripes earned in recent seasons, is the weight and prestige of a top program. A North Carolina win would mean major respect for Butch’s Boys in the rankings. Given the Tar Heels’ experience and the Tigers’ losses, it’s certainly a possibility.

WATCH OUT FOR:

Bryn Renner, RS-freshman QB from Springfield, VA. If Yates starts throwing erratically like he’s tossing candy at a Homecoming parade, expect Davis to pull the plug and insert mobile, former 4-star recruit Bryn Renner. Two years ago, LSU clawed VT QB Sean Glennon out of the game, and it led to the debut of QB Tyrod “T-Mobile” Taylor, who would go on to play quite a bit the rest of the season. If this happens, it might be a blessing in disguise for North Carolina.

Sept. 18. Georgia Tech

In Chapel Hill, the stars aligned. In Atlanta, the stars departed. Georgia Tech loses its best four players from 2009 in Jonathan Dwyer, Demaryius Thomas, Derrick Morgan, and Morgan Burnett—all of whom left early for the NFL. In the third week of the season, who knows how well their replacements will have adjusted to their increased roles, let alone the switch from a 4-3 to 3-4 defense under former Virginia Head Coach Al Groh? On top of that, the Heels will have a bye week to prepare for the Jackets’ nightmare of an offense.

In his two years at Georgia Tech, Paul Johnson is 2-4 when opponents had extra time to prepare for his option attack, losing in those games by an average score of 30 to 18. (He’s 18-3 when opponents don’t have extra time). One of those losses came when North Carolina stormed out of a mid-October bye week in 2008 and dominated the Jackets 28-7.

WATCH OUT FOR:

To quote dontfirealgroh.com (if you haven’t checked it out, you’re really missing out), ACC offenses facing GT in 2010 won’t have a going problem , they’ll have a Groh-ing problem. The Heels have had a Groh-ing problem over the last six years, averaging just 11 points per game against his 3-4 defensive scheme. Will this year be different? Will TJ Yates and an experienced group of playmakers finally move the ball on the man, the sweater, the legend?

Sept. 25 @ Rutgers

UNC stomped Rutgers in 2008 by a score of 44-12. The Scarlet Knights rebounded and have been pretty successful since then, posting a 9-4 record in 2009.  However, Rutgers loses its top receiver in Tim Brown, a weapon they will dearly miss when facing this dominant Carolina defense. I like our chances here for a road win and a resumé builder.

WATCH OUT FOR:

Mohammed Sanu, WR, Rutgers. Sanu had 639 receiving yards as a freshman in 2009, but he really exploded in the last few weeks of the season as a runner, in the new “Wild Knight” formation. It will be very interesting to see how UNC’s defense reacts to one of many curveballs they will see from fearful opposing offensive coordinators in 2010.

Oct. 2 East Carolina

ECU’s heartbreaking bowl loss to Arkansas marked the beginning of an offseason of upheaval in Greenville. Skip Holtz left town to coach at USF, and a number of key players have graduated as well including 6th year QB Patrick Pinkney, 1000 yard rusher Dominique Lindsay, 3 starters on the O-line, 3 starters on the D-line, 3 starting linebackers, and first team all-CUSA safety Van Eskridge. The Pirates also lose their kicker, although after his 1-5 performance in the bowl game, this might be good for the program. All in all, it appears that North Carolina’s full house of talent will be too much for these unarmed Pirates.

WATCH OUT FOR:

In case you didn’t know, Skip Holtz was replaced in the Captain’s Seat by former Texas Tech Defensive Coordinator Ruffin McNeil. McNeil plans to loot former skipper Mike Leach’s playbook and bring it with him to East Carolina. That means a lot of 5 wide receiver sets, a lot of passes, and a whole lot of miserable opposing defensive coordinators. If McNeil can find a quarterback before this game, this could be a very interesting match-up.

Oct. 9 Clemson

The 2010 Clemson Tigers lose a lot of offense from the ‘09 team, including leading receiver Jacoby Ford, NCAA All-Time Total Yardage leader CJ Spiller, 2nd leading receiver TE Michael Palmer and highly projected draft pick LG Thomas Austin.  On defense, they lose five starters as well, 3 of which come in the secondary. The Tigers aren’t a great road team (4-5 over the last two years), so I definitely like this match-up for UNC.

WATCH OUT FOR:

Clemson RB, Andre Ellington. Ellington won’t be the next Spiller, but he’s a great back who averaged 7.2 yards per carry as a freshman in 2009. The Heels will have to stop him to pick up a win in this game.

Oct. 16 @ Virginia

North Carolina has lost an astonishing 14 consecutive games in Charlottesville. The Heels’ last win in the land of sophistication came in 1981, 7 years before my birth and one year before my parents’ marriage. It’d be one thing to sport a losing streak like that against Texas or Florida but Virginia? Come on, now. It’s no consolation (at all) that 7 of those losses have come by just 3 points or less. If the streak continues in 2010, I might just find myself a new job. UVa loses its top 4 rushers, 3 of its top 4 receivers, and 5 defensive starters from last year’s magical 3-9 team. THIS IS THE YEAR, TAR HEEL FANS. IT HAS TO BE.

WATCH OUT FOR:

UVa QB, Marc “Vertical” Verica. Vertical Verica led the mighty Cavaliers on a storied 80 yard TD drive in the final minute the last time UNC came to town. Does the flashy signal-caller have what it takes to cook up another last minute masterpiece?

Oct. 23 @ Miami

UNC has won 3 consecutive games against Randy Shannon and the Miami Hurricanes. Suffice it to say that Swagger University will limp into this game with more Hurricane Humility than endzone dancing debauchery. Carolina forced 4 Jacory Harris turnovers in 2009, and I expect more of the same in 2010.

WATCH OUT FOR:

Graig Cooper’s ACL. Miami RB Graig Cooper scorched the Heels for 100+ yards in 2008, but just 63 yards in 2009. Will he recover from his ACL tear in time for a last opportunity at Tar Heel payback?

Oct. 30 William and Mary

I’m thrilled that the Tar Heels have a nice, FCS break before traveling to Tallahassee to take on Florida State. The only problem? William and Mary’s no joke, having advanced to the FCS Final Four in 2009. According to the Transitive Property of Football, the Tribe would have dominated North Carolina last fall. They defeated Virginia 26-14 on the road, and we lost to Virginia 16-3 at home. Ergo, we would have lost to William and Mary by 25 last fall.

Additionally, the Tribe scored 38 points in their 2004 trip to Chapel Hill in a shootout. Somehow, I still feel pretty confident about this one, mainly because…

WATCH OUT FOR:

Former UNC QB Mike Paulus! Paulus transferred to the Tribe after the fall semester and looks like the early favorite to win the starting QB job. After single-handedly blowing UNC’s 2008 opportunity to beat Virginia Tech, I’d be surprised if Paulus leaves Kenan stadium with feeling in his arms, let alone a victory. Expect more than a few “roughing the passer” penalties in this blood bath.

Nov. 6 @ Florida State

This game definitely scares me more than any other game on the schedule up to this point.  This offseason, Jimbo Fisher finally took the dadgum reins from Bobby Bowden and began steering this program in the right direction. The Seminoles have the best QB in the ACC in Christian Ponder who tomahawked the Tar Heel secondary to the tune of 395 yards and 3 scores in 2009.

WATCH OUT FOR:

TJ Yates, UNC QB. If Yates has a strong outing in Doak Campbell Stadium, he’d earn a lot of respect in Chapel Hill and become one of few quarterbacks to lead their teams to wins in Blacksburg and Tallahassee.

Nov. 13 Virginia Tech

I expect this game to be the de-facto ACC Championship Game. Virginia Tech has been by far the best ACC football program over the past 6 years. If North Carolina can dominate the line of scrimmage again like last year, the Tar Heels will be one step closer to supplanting the Hokies at the top and earning a trip to the BCS. Virginia Tech Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster will have to deal with the losses of DE Jason Worilds, LB Cody Grimm, CB Stephan Virgil, and S Kam Chancellor, probably the four best defensive players from 2009. Shockingly, Stinespring’s offense might have to carry this Virginia Tech team to a win in Chapel Hill.

WATCH OUT FOR:

Running Back Rhythm. When RB Darren Evans returns from a torn ACL, will he regain his starting job? Will he take carries—-and rhythm—from sophomore stud Ryan Williams?

Nov. 20 NC State

All I want for Christmas, Hannukah, Kwaanzaa, Easter, and my birthday is a victory over NC State. We’re 0 for 3 since I came to UNC, and I’d be devastated (though not at all surprised) if we finished 0 for 4. The bottom line in this game might be the lines: North Carolina returns a host of key players along both lines while NC State graduates its whole defensive line and 4 of its 5 offensive linemen.

WATCH OUT FOR:

NCSU QB Mike Glennon. It’s possible, although not probable, that QB Russell Wilson will enter the MLB Draft and miss out on this upcoming football season. If that’s the case, let’s just hope that pocket-presence is genetic and that this Glennon struggles with pressure as much as his older brother, Sean.

Nov. 27 @ Duke

I like it when we play Duke last. It’s a lovely way to end the season on a high note and send the Devils reeling into the offseason. Hopefully, we’ll have an opportunity to end their bowl hopes in this Battle for the Victory Bell. Without Thaddeus Lewis and Vince Oghobaase, I’d say UNC will be ringing Duke’s bell all day long.

WATCH OUT FOR:

Jon Scheyer, Duke QB (?). Scheyer’s had a superb senior season, but I just can’t picture him making it to the NBA. It makes perfect sense then that the Duke of Scheyer would follow in the footsteps of oft-trampled Duke PG Greg Paulus, who used a final year of eligibility to quarterback Syracuse to a 5 win season in 2009. Scheyer might not have the arm strength to launch it downfield, but in the end, it’s Duke football. Who really cares anyway?

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Positives in a Firestorm of UNC Negativity

Thursday, February 4th, 2010

This season, our basketball team has received a fair share of icy criticism—not unlike the recent weather in Chapel Hill—and deservedly so. They’ve been firefly-erratic, flashing brilliantly at times (Michigan State, NC State) and other times (read: most times) fading into the night.

I’m tempted to spew out another rant (there’s no shortage of material) at their poor play, but I think it’s more useful to take a brighter glimpse at the Tar Heels. As high and mighty as I may feel from the comfy confines of my couch, I’m rows away from bench, or even walk-on status. My harsh criticisms of help defense, shot selection, and poise echo loudly (and perhaps truly)—but only in the confines of my home.

It’s easier being the avalanche, pouring down relentlessly with the force of gravity, than it is to be a climber, trekking uphill against doubt, fear and the paralysis of expectation.

So for today at least, let’s halt the downward storm, and appreciate the climbers and some of their better treks this season.

Guard

PG- Larry Drew II

Against Michigan State, Larry Drew II demonstrated an artful ability to dissect defenses. Most notably, he had a gorgeous running bank shot that embodied relaxed confidence. Also, it’s important to note that Drew II is shooting 44% from 3 PT land. Although many of those trifectas have come in the final minutes, they show that his stroke has improved and will continue to improve, a la Ty Lawson.

PG/SG- Dexter Strickland

When Dexter goes to the hole, he really goes to the hole. Against Michigan State, he hit a huge trey at the halftime buzzer while also adding a few sprint-layups reminiscent of Lawson. In the 75-60 loss to Virginia, Strickland demonstrated his insane leaping ability, reaching his hand above the top of the square to swat away a Cavalier lay up. The play was (incorrectly) called goaltending, but it was still an exceptional display of effort and athleticism.

SG- Marcus Ginyard

Marcus played an outstanding defensive game against NC State. He continually bothered offensive players and looked quite comfortable in that role. Combine that with his smooth perimeter shooting from early this season, and Marcus has had some good moments this year as well.

SG- Leslie McDonald

Call me a purist, but this guy’s stroke just looks good.  I know that McDonald can make jump shots, and it will show soon enough.

Forward

SF- Will Graves

Graves has averaged 2.8 triples per game over the last ten games, at a percentage of just over 50! Graves is a fearless shooter, as evidenced by his second half explosion against Georgia Tech earlier this year.  If anyone has tried to step up and become a top scoring option, it’s been the Gravedigger.

SF- John Henson

We’ve all seen Henson’s arms swoop down from the sky like strings of spaghetti to send an opponent’s shot into the bleachers. However, when I think of Henson and his immense potential, I think of two plays in particular. Against NCSU, Henson beat his man off the dribble and drove beautifully to the hole, where he missed a layup. The second play I want to point out is a pull-up jump shot that he popped in the face of All-ACC forward Sylvan Landesberg of Virginia. 273 burgers from now, this guy’s going to be a scorer.

PF- Deon Thompson

Deon played a magnificent game against NCSU. He asserted himself in the post, and punished the Pack with a series of 10 foot jump shots.

PF- Travis Wear

Wear has had a solid, if unspectacular season. In the Heels’ blowout loss to Syracuse, T-Wear dropped 8 points (all on mid-range jump shots, if I remember correctly) in 10 minutes.

PF- David Wear

Wear showed a bit of range against Texas, draining two triples in a 103-90 loss. He’s got a pure jump shot, and a bright future for Carolina.

Center

C- Ed Davis

Ed demanded the ball in games against Michigan State and Virginia Tech. When he’s fighting for post position inside, he’s the best post-player in the ACC. Let’s hope we can see some more of that as the season goes on.

Coach

As hard as this season as has been, Roy Williams has never made excuses. He hasn’t taken the bait from callers on talk radio, and he hasn’t thrown anyone under the bus. He’s taken full responsibility for this team, and he has handled this losing about as well as anyone could.

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I Was Lost But Now Am Found

Wednesday, January 27th, 2010

Did you notice it?

Or was it just me?

I think I saw the Tar Heels playing basketball with confidence against NC State. I think they for the most part knew what they wanted to do and where they were supposed to be. ( Roy knows better as he already said that often guys weren’t executing the right defensive sets,etc ).

They passed the ball to each other. And not to the guy in the 3rd row.

Maybe, just maybe they are starting to play the game without having to think about how to play the game.

We will know more this weekend as the Heels take on Virginia. No question that the Wolfpack played poorly against Carolina…that helped a lot. But hopefully a lot of the little things are starting to become second nature to the Heels.

I have been wondering when players would start doing what they are good at. John Henson is one long and lean guy. Did you see him blocking shots against the Pack? Yes! That’s what he should be looking to do. Ed Davis, Deon Thompson…did you see them getting rebounds? Yes! That’s what they should be doing. Will Graves…can he shoot? Yes! When he is open he is great. He took his time for the most part against State and waited until he was open to take a 3 pt shot.

We possibly could see the Heels win a few here over the next 2 weeks. The Heels can compete well against teams like Virginia, Va Tech, and NC State. Hopefully they can get at least 1 win against Duke, Maryland, or Ga Tech in the next few weeks.

I have no doubt that the Heels will get blown out again soon…that’s the way it goes with freshmen.

They will also have their share of good wins against ACC teams. ( Hopefully they can get one against the Blue Devils!)

And I will continue to pay attention to how “natural” the Heels look as they play. They have been “lost” but I believe they might now be “found”.

Go Heels!

MrTarHeel
http://www.mrtarheel.com

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CaNIT really happen?

Tuesday, January 26th, 2010

Heading into Tuesday night’s game at NC State, the stakes are extremely high for Roy’s Boys.

A loss in Raleigh could not only sap the team’s draining confidence, but also push the Tar Heels one step further down the postseason plank. For the first time in the Roy Williams era at UNC, the Tar Heels might be playing their postseason hoops on ESPN the Ocho in the NIT, aka the Not Invited Teams tournament or the Noobs’ Invitational Tournament.

In light of this impending disaster, I thought it would be good to take a look at both the Tar Heels’ NCAA resumé and their remaining schedule.

CURRENT RESUMÉ

RPI Ranking: #73

“Big” RPI Wins: #14 Michigan State, #46 Ohio State, #70 Virginia Tech, #65 Marshall, #71 Nevada

Road Wins: Zilch. Literally. Zero.

Outlook:

UNC is ranked 15 spots behind two different Ivy League Schools (Cornell and Harvard), as well as William and Mary, Northeastern, and Northwestern. In other directional college news, the Heels have played just barely well enough to outrank Western Carolina in the RPI; Western Carolina checks in at #74 in the rankings.

The selection committee loves neutral/road wins, and the Tar Heels have only one, a victory in Madison Square Garden over Ohio State. UNC must win at least a few true road games in order to make the tournament. For this young team, this could be quite a challenge.

Remaining Schedule:

GottaWannaNeedaGettaHavtaWin Games (unofficially sponsored by Bojangles) in bold

@ NC State- The Pack always play us tough. Without Ed Davis, who scores inside?  L

Virginia- Virginia might be 3-1 in the ACC, but they’re still Virginia. In Chapel Hill, the Heels can’t let this one slip away. W

@ VT- Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg will be filled with angry Hokie fans trying to scream their team from its NIT destiny.  W

@ MD- Maryland’s 1-2-1-1 full court pressure will terrorize our young guards. L

#8 Duke- This would be an enormous win for the Heels’ NCAA chances. L

NCSU- This game is a true, win-win situation. If the Heels win, they’ll improve their NCAA chances. If they lose, Sidney Lowe gets a contract extension! W

@ #22 GT- UNC dominated the Jackets in the 2nd half last time. Two halves like that and this one’s in the bag for UNC. L

@ BC- Boston College is a good matchup for Carolina. W

FSU- The ‘Noles hoopsters play better defense than their football counterparts. I have visions of a turnover fest for the Tar Heel backcourt. W

@ Wake- If Ish Smith and the Deacs go cold from outside, UNC prevails. W

Miami- Miami trailed by 35 points to VT…in the first half…W

@ #8 Duke- I’d pay hundreds to watch Jon Scheyer and Brian Zoubek leave Duke without a single home win vs. UNC. I wouldn’t bet hundreds on it, though. L

Predicted Outcome:

19-12 (8-8 in the ACC); 8 seed in the NCAA tournament

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More Thoughts on a Disappointing Start

Monday, January 18th, 2010

Coming into the 2009-2010 season, the banners were in the rafters, but the writing was on the wall. Most of us Tar Heel fans, still drunk on the fumes of last season’s spectacular national championship journey, saw just the banners, the glory, the lofty preseason rankings. We may not have expected another championship team, but we certainly imagined that this year’s younger squad would play their way into the top 10.  After all, how could they not?

Junior Olympian Deon Thompson and projected top 5 pick Ed Davis would dominate the post. Senior Marcus Ginyard would bring defense and leadership to the table. Larry Drew II would escape the shadow of Ty Lawson and calmly direct a swath of high flying McDonald’s All-Americans in John Henson, Dexter Strickland, and Leslie McDonald. Another year, another fast break through ACC play. Bring on another tournament run…Or so we thought.

Hindsight is more than 20-20. Like Ray Felton on a fast break or Ed Cota in traffic, it has a way of slowing down its surroundings and revealing the little things we may not notice the first time around. At this point, I’d like to take a hindsight glance at a few unseen hints that this team would struggle in 2010.

1) No one on this team had ever been a primary scoring option at the college level. Deon Thompson was the team’s 5th scoring option last year, and Ed Davis was probably the 6th. Being the go-to-guy is not just a responsibility; it’s a mentality. Hansbrough had it. Thompson and Davis don’t (yet?). Case in point—late in the 2nd half against Georgia Tech, the ball was on the right wing, and the entire lane was open. Ed Davis hadn’t touched the ball in a while, but the Tar Heels were creeping back into contention. With any level of effort, Davis could have seized post position and earned himself a high percentage look. Instead, he floated around the top of the key, as if waiting for Hansbrough to work his way into the open spot and take the team on his back. At that point in the game, a go-to scorer wants the ball. From my vantage point, it just doesn’t look like Ed really does sometimes.

2) Playing with new players means learning your teammates’ tendencies, preferences, dislikes, and quirks. For example, a point guard who’s played with a teammate for a few years would know exactly where that teammate likes to catch the ball in order to get up a quick shot. This year’s squad, while it certainly doesn’t lack talent, lacks experience playing together, and that’s a huge factor in the Tar Heels’ turnover terrors. Think this doesn’t matter? In 2004, the US Olympic Men’s Basketball Team, cobbled together at the last second, lost to squads of unheralded Argentinian players who played beautifully together thanks to ample experience. Sure, some of this year’s Tar Heel passes into the bleachers come from a lack of composure, but a lot of them come from not having played together much. (More proof of this theory comes from the Kentucky Wildcats, whose unmatched talent has struggled with teamwork turnovers all year long as well.)

3) Injuries can bring any team to its knees. This year, they haven’t been terribly detrimental to the team, but they certainly haven’t helped either. Coming into the season, we knew that Ginyard might struggle with injuries, given his gimpy, gauze ridden 2009.  Zeller, while his injury last year was a bit of a fluke accident, also has had injury issues in the past. Additionally, it’s easy to see how the freshman class could struggle adjusting physically from the lolly-gagging pace of high school basketball to the uptempo, Roy Williams brand of basketball in Chapel Hill. All of these factors were major warning signs: injuries could play a big role in this team’s success in 2009-2010.

In retrospect, it’s easy to see how the current edition of the Tar Heels would struggle quite a bit this season.

All we can do now is take it in stride, enjoy the ride, and hope Roy’s Boys can break on through to the other side.

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Ball Security a Must Against #19 Clemson

Tuesday, January 12th, 2010

Heading into Wednesday night’s  Clemson game, I have a few main concerns for this UNC basketball squad.

First of all, the game is in Clemson’s raucous Littlejohn Coliseum.

(If you don’t remember what happened last time the Tar Heels ventured there:

1) Reevaluate your priorities as a UNC basketball fan.

2) Watch the following video. Ellington Tames Tigers

3) Repeat.

4) Notice Bobby Frasor tipping over at the left end of the bench

5) Repeat again.

Back to Wednesday night’s game…

In road games this season, the Tar Heels have struggled to protect the basketball, coughing up 82 turnovers and dishing out only 72 assists in those games. I’ll be the first one to tell you that those Paulus-esque turnover numbers could very well be the result of playing some of the nation’s top teams in Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio State, and Texas. However, I would argue that those turnovers also result from inexperience and an overall lack of composure. If playing in College of Charleston’s Carolina First Arena rattles you, Clemson’s Littlejohn Coliseum will REALLY rattle you. The John, as South Carolina fans may or may not refer to the arena, is no Cameron Indoor Stadium, but it’s certainly enough to send this year’s young Tar Heels into a frenzy of errant passes and off-the-foot dribbles.

My second concern is Clemson’s style of play. The Tigers use a 1-2-1-1 (Diamond) full court trap after made baskets. In effect, the defense seeks to quickly trap the first inbound pass, causing turnovers and a frenetic pace favorable to their athletic squad. In UNC’s last visit to Clemson, they turned the ball over 19 times, including five costly donations from all-everything PG Ty Lawson, who we will all agree is a stronger, more capable ball-handler than Larry Drew II or Dexter Strickland. This Oliver Purnell scheme thrives on creating big runs, something the Tar Heels have struggled with all season (Syracuse had a 22-1 run to start the second half; Kentucky had a 28-2 run in the first half).

In the half court, Clemson plays some 2-3 zone as well, a scheme that has baffled Carolina in previous losses to Texas, Kentucky, and Syracuse. When Clemson shows this look, Ed Davis needs to be very assertive in the high post so we can avoid donating a brick wing to the historic basketball arena (aka shooting a lot of 3’s).

Another common denominator in UNC’s losses (with the exception of Charleston) is a bus-sized opposing big man. Syracuse had Onuaku, Kentucky had Patterson, and Texas had Pittman. All three of those value-sized post predators pushed Ed Davis around like a John Henson in a hurricane. Clemson sports muscle-man Trevor Booker in the post, and he also could cause problems for Davis and Thompson on the low block.

The Good News

Fortunately, the Tiger press is forcing a lot less turnovers this year than last year. In Clemson’s first 6 games against big conference teams last year, they forced an average of 18 turnovers. This year, that figure has dropped to 14. Similarly, Clemson’s been pretty unproductive from downtown this season after the loss of playmakers Terrance Oglesby and KC Rivers.

Additionally, Clemson is in a major funk against UNC, having lost over 50 straight games in Chapel Hill and the last few at Clemson. Even if Clemson gets a big lead, that’s no guarantee of anything. Unfortunately for Clemson Head Coach Oliver Purnell, the Tigers have developed a reputation for letting their prey escape from seeming death grips—-Clemson has blown big leads at least a few times in the last two seasons, including this season against Illionis (up 20 at half) and 2 years ago at UNC (up 18 in the first half).

Prediction

#13 UNC 76 #19 Clemson 74

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