Archive for the ‘Football’ Category

« Older Entries

LSU GAME PREVIEW – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

Thursday, September 2nd, 2010

LSU

Head Coach: Les Miles (51-15 in 5 seasons at LSU)

Famous LSU Alumni: Pete Maravich, Shaq, James Carville, Hubert Humphrey

Fun Facts:

1)      UNC’s not the only team in this matchup with a mascot derived from American military history. LSU’s nickname—“the Tigers”—comes from the name of a “rowdy” Confederate Brigade known as the Louisiana Tigers. But there’s a surprisingly un-Confederate beginning to the LSU story. The first Superintendent of LSU (in 1860) was actually William Sherman—the Union General infamous for his ruthless destruction of the Confederate States at the end of the Civil War.

2)      Both LSU and UNC feature some big-time “receiver underachievers.” North Carolina’s two, former five-star recruits at wide receiver—Greg Little and Dwight Jones— combined for just 5 receiving touchdowns in 2009, all by Greg Little. On the other hand, LSU’s three five-star recruits at wide receiver—Russell Shepard, Terrance Tolliver, and Rueben Randle—also combined for just five scores through the air in 2009, despite the fact that all three players were ranked as the #1 overall player at their position in high school!

3)      LSU’s “Tiger Stadium” holds 32,400 more fans than UNC’s Kenan Stadium, and once registered on the Richter Scale during a particularly loud 1980’s home game. But UNC filled its traditionally tame stadium with 6,790 more fans at its 2010 Spring Game than LSU, which brought just 22,710 fans to its final Spring scrimmage.

4)      The original LSU mascot—Mike the Tiger—cost just 750 dollars, but Mike VI, LSU’s current live Tiger mascot, lives in a 3 million dollar habitat on campus constructed in 2005.

5)      Mike VI eats approximately 15 pounds of meat daily—the equivalent of approximately 300 Chick-Fila chicken nuggets.

6)      Les Miles has gone 3-0 vs. the ACC since he came to Baton Rouge with wins against #9 Miami (2005), #9Virginia Tech (2007), and #14 Georgia Tech (2008)—two of which have come in Chick-Fila sponsored games. In these three southeast showdowns, the Bayou Bengals have Cool-Wrapped ACC opponents by an average score of 42 to 4, holding the ACC teams to an average of 205 yards of total offense.

7)      BUT! If the Tar Heels can somehow turn the tables and pick up a big lead on LSU, we’ll have the Georgia Dome to ourselves. The last time the Tigers trailed by 4 TD was against Troy in 2008. LSU rallied for an improbable 40-31 home victory, but did so with almost no Tiger fans remaining in the stadium. What was that about faithful SEC fans? And speaking of faithfulness and loyalty…

8)      The last time an LSU Coach lasted more than 5 seasons (other than Les Miles, who’s entering his 6th year under fire) was Charles McClendon who coached from 1962-1979.

Quotable:

“Last year was the most improper use of a freshman class i’ve ever seen. Les better wake the hell up.” —Isaac70065, posted on a YouTube video of Rueben Randle highlights

After back to back disappointing seasons, Les Miles isn’t on the hot seat; he’s in the tiger cage, covered in wounds (clock- management disaster at Ole Miss) and running out of time. But, “improperly used” sophomores Rueben Randle and Russell Shepard—as well as heralded redshirt freshmen Michael Ford, Sam Montgomery, Barkavious Mingo, and Kevin Minter—might have the talent to lift Les “Mad Hatter” Miles out of the cage and back into the good graces of LSU fans. A win against North Carolina would certainly help…

LSU Offense: Coordinator Gary Crowton

2009 Stats: 122.8 rushing yards/game (90th in the nation) + 181.8 passing yards/game (97th in nation) = 304.5 total yards per game (112th in the nation)

Scheme: Gary Crowton has been a part of some exceptional offensive teams, starting with Louisiana Tech’s explosive passing offense of the late 90’s. As Head Coach of BYU in 2001,       he presided over an offense that racked up 7,000 total yards and 80 touchdowns. He then helped turn Oregon’s offense into a top ten unit in 2004 and 2005. At LSU, Crowton has      engineered two of the four highest scoring seasons in Tiger history, including an unbelievably balanced offense in 2007 that won a national championship and, perhaps more impressively, racked up over 600 yards against a Bud Foster Virginia Tech defense early in the year. Schematically, Crowton’s offense reminds me of the Jimbo Fisher Florida                State offense we saw in Chapel Hill last season. It’s a multiple offense—meaning a lot of looks from the shotgun and I-formation—with a variety of wrinkles. Crowton relies on lots of pre-snap motion and misdirection to confuse defenses and get his skill players on the perimeter. Since he’s been at LSU, he’s busted out read-option, Wild-Tiger, and plenty of trick plays. Everett Withers will have lots of work to do to prepare for Crowton’s unit.

Quarterback:

JR—Jordan Jefferson (2166 passing yards, 62% completion, 17 TD, 7 INT; 137.2 passer     rating; 171 rushing yards, TD)

At 6’5 235 pounds, Jefferson looks like an NFL quarterback. He’s pretty mobile, too,  although sometimes his mobility hurts him more than it helps him. Jefferson’s been known to hang on to the football too long (leading to unnecessary sacks), due to his passiveness and his problems locating safeties in coverage. He doesn’t take a lot of risks (8 INT in 369 career attempts), but he doesn’t create a lot of big plays either. After a dreadful 8/23 performance in the LSU Spring Game, it’s still unclear whether the big 6’5 QB will be much better in 2010 than he was in his mediocre sophomore campaign.

JR—Jarrett Lee (16 of 40, 197 yards, TD; 92.9 passer rating)

Lee might be the most hated quarterback in the country (by his own fans), and not because of his unrivaled success on the gridiron. Jarrett “Pick 6” Lee set an NCAA record in 2008 for the most interceptions returned by opponents for touchdowns. If he ‘s forced into the game by a Jefferson injury, LSU will go into its offensive shell and probably not take many aerial shots at Carolina’s talented secondary.

MATCHUP:

UNC has struggled over the past three years to contain mobile quarterbacks such as       Christian Ponder (395 yards, 3 TD), Pat White (385 total yards, 3 TD), and Russell Wilson                  (539 pass yards, 6 TD, 0 INT in 2 games). Jefferson lacks the explosion and quickness that these quarterbacks had, but he’s mobile—and crafty—enough to cause UNC’s zone-heavy      defense problems in this game. If Carolina can knock Jefferson out of the game, Lee will struggle mightily for LSU, given his past troubles and his inability to throw on TULANE in            2009.

Running Back:

JR—Stevan Ridley (45 carries for 180 yards, 3 TD)

Ridley is a 5’11 235 lb former fullback with no 20 yard runs in 57 career carries. He got the bulk of the LSU carries towards the end of 2009, but was largely unable to capitalize on the     chances that he got, finishing with just 61 yards on 26 carries against Arkansas and Penn State combined. Much like Ryan Houston for UNC, Ridley doesn’t quite have the explosion to outshine poor offensive line play—which could be a big problem for LSU again in 2010.

SR—Richard Murphy (44 carries for 186 yards, 0 TD in 2008; long of 12 yards)

Murphy’s had a lot of injury problems over the years at LSU, and it’s kept him from emerging as anything more than a brief substitute for Jacob Hester, Charles Scott, or                           Keiland Williams. I don’t expect him to contribute much in this game, given that he’s never had more than 6 carries in a game during his LSU career and he’s recovering from his 2nd       ACL surgery. Still, Murphy wears #18, an honor at LSU reserved for the best all-around Tiger in the program (Jacob Hester and Richard Dickson were the last guys who had it) and he’s gotten a number of first team repetitions in practice this summer.

FR—Michael Ford (19 carries for 139 yards in LSU Spring Game)

Ford enters the season as the Tigers’ most interesting option at tailback. Rivals.com rated him the #59 overall recruit in the class of 2009, and it’s easy to see why. He’s an explosive    athlete who put up 100 yards in each of LSU’s 3 spring scrimmages while also posting a 42 inch vertical leap and bench pressing 425 pounds—more than anyone on LSU’s offensive line. Ford could be the guy to inject some life into a stagnant LSU running game, but I’m not sure that he will emerge as the number 1 guy this early in the season. He once rushed for 443 yards and 6 TD in a high school game.

FR—Spencer Ware (5 star recruit in class of 2010)

Ware is a phenomenal athlete and a tough runner. Rumor has it he might see some snaps out of the Wild-Tiger formation to rejuvenate the LSU offense. Since he’s a former QB,             UNC will have to respect his ability to pass in those situations.

MATCHUP:

Murphy and Ridley don’t scare me at all, though Ridley’s power could pose problems for the inexperienced defensive tackles of UNC. Ford, on the other hand, has apparently been          pretty impressive after redshirting in 2009. Given the Tar Heels’ exceptional front 7, you’d have to give the edge to UNC against the LSU running game, which finished 90th in the              nation last fall. That being said, I sure hope that Crowton and Miles lean on unspectacular    experience—meaning Murphy and Ridley—early and often vs. UNC because Ford looks            like LSU’s best chance at establishing the running game in 2010.

Wide Receiver/Tight End:

6’5 206 lb SR—-Terrance Tolliver (53 catches, 735 yards, 3 TD; former 5 star recruit)

Tolliver has played second fiddle to Brandon LaFell over the past two seasons, and in 2010 will be expected to emerge as the Tigers’ top receiving option. He hasn’t scored much (3  TD in 2009, 1 TD in 2008) at LSU given his enormous frame and strong leaping ability. Still, he’s a pretty dangerous receiver against UNC’s dominant, but diminutive defensive backs.

6’4 201 lb SOPH—Rueben Randle (11 catches, 173 yards, 2 TD; former 5 star recruit)

Randle underachieved a bit in 2009, catching only 11 passes after being the nation’s #1 recruit at wide receiver. Like Shepard, he played QB in his senior year of high school and                  struggled to adjust to the receiver position at the SEC level. He elevates well and started to come on later in the season with two crucial touchdown receptions against Ole Miss.

6’1 188 lb SOPH—Russell Shepard (5 catches 34 yards; 45 rushes 277 yards, 2 TD; former 5 star recruit at QB)

Shepard came out of high school in 2009 as the nation’s top quarterback, according to Rivals.com, but was converted to wide receiver last fall. Gary Danielson has called him a        “Percy Harvin-type athlete,” so it’s fair to expect him to get 10 touches per game in Gary Crowton’s offense in 2010. Surprisingly, Shepard has yet to throw a pass at LSU, but he                    has run the read option (as both a running back and QB) as well as a variety of QB draws  and sweeps. He’s extremely fast, but unproven as a downfield wide receiver, so expect most of his action in the passing game to come on middle and jailbreak screens. That’s not to say that Shepard won’t be a deep threat as well though, given his speed (4.36 in the 40  yard  dash) and leaping ability (41.5 inch vertical leap).

TE 6’4 240 lb JR—DeAngelo Peterson (5 catches 82 yards, 2 TD)

Peterson was a receiver coming out of high school—and a good one at that—-but he’s not yet proven himself as a blocker. Still, he scored against Alabama last year and has the            route-running skills to cause lesser linebackers a bit of a problem in coverage.

TE 6’5 265 lb JR—Mitch Joseph (2 catches 18 yards)

Joseph is a powerful blocker without a lot of speed or smooth route running skills. Most likely, Joseph won’t get too many targets vs. UNC, but he could be LSU’s answer to Robert  Quinn. Watch for LSU to use Joseph to chip Quinn at the line of scrimmage to slow down his relentless pass rush.

MATCHUP:

This group has underachieved in the past, but I wouldn’t expect that trend to continue this year. Tolliver is a huge receiver with proven talent while Randle has similarly intimidating      stature and an increasing comfort with the LSU offense. New receivers coach Billy Gonzales, fresh from U of Florida, has experience using multi-purpose athletes at receiver               (Percy Harvin) and should be able to turn Russell Shepard into a more important part of the LSU offense. My main concern with this group is its size—both Tolliver and Randle will           have 6-7 inches of height on Tar Heel cornerbacks Kendric Burney and Charlie Brown.

Offensive Line

LT- Joseph Barksdale (SR)—26 career starts

LG- Josh Dvoraczyk (JR)—13 career starts

C- P.J. Lonergan (SOPH)—2 career starts

RG- Will Blackwell (JR)—no career starts

RT- Alex Hurst (SOPH)—no career starts

MATCHUP:

LSU ranks 10th in the SEC with just 41 returning starts along the offensive line. The Tigers lose a four year starter at left tackle in Ciron Black, a 2nd team All-American, as well as                 starting center T-Bob Hebert. Experienced RT Joseph Barksdale slides over to fill in for Black, but that means the right side of the line will feature zero returning starts, which is                  a bad, bad sign when lining up against Carolina defensive ends Robert Quinn, Quentin Coples, Donte Paige-Moss, and Michael McAdoo.

Offensive Game Plan:

Bad offenses tend to limp to the huddle, barely getting plays off and giving defenses a perfect chance to jump the snap and disrupt plays. (We Carolina fans know this from                          experience). LSU OC Gary Crowton wants to speed up the Tiger offense in 2010, and that means Jefferson getting out of the huddle faster. Crowton will try to use quick snaps, as                  well as some speed option plays from Shepard to resuscitate LSU’s lifeless running game. In passing situations, LSU will try to chip Robert Quinn with tight end Mitch Joseph and                 whatever running back is in the game at the time. Chances are, we’ll see Murphy, Ridley, and Ford carrying the rock for LSU.

LSU Defense: Coordinator John Chavis

2009 Stats: 133.4 rushing yards allowed/game (46th in the nation) + 194.2 passing yards   allowed/game (29th in the nation) = 327.6 total yards allowed per game (26th in nation)

36.7% 3rd down conversions allowed (8th in the SEC)

Scheme: 4-3

“We’re going to stop the run with numbers, we’re going to get more people in the box than they can block. And we’re going to rush the passer with speed.”

Defensive Line:

DE- Kendrick Adams (JR) and Barkavious Mingo (r-FR)

DT- Lazarius Levingston (SR) and Michael Brockers (r-FR)

DT- Drake Nevis (SR) and Josh Downs (SOPH)

DE- Lavar Edwards (SOPH) and Sam Montgomery (r-FR)

DL- Ego Ferguson (FR.)

MATCHUP:

If you’re looking for an explanation of LSU’s defensive drop off since the 2007 season, look no further than the defensive line, which finished 9th in the SEC in sacks in 2009. This              year’s unit returns some solid defensive tackles in Nevis (50 tackles, 11 TFL) and Levingston (8 TFL), but will depend on smaller, quicker and younger defensive ends to spark the pass rush. Sam Montgomery (4 star recruit, UNC target), Barkavious Mingo (4 star recruit) and Michael Brockers (4 star recruit) could very well be up to the challenge, especially when you consider how UNC’s offensive line struggled with smaller front fours(UConn, Florida State) in 2009.

Linebackers:

MLB- Kelvin Sheppard (SR) (110 tackles, 8 TFL, sack, INT; All-SEC first team); has played all three linebacker positions and is, according to Chavis, one of the smartest players he’s ever coached

OLB- Ryan Baker (JR) (17 tackles)—BROKEN JAW (might be back for this game)

OLB- Stefoin Francois (JR) (8 tackles)—former safety

Also: LB Kevin Minter (FR)—14 tackles in the Spring Game

MATCHUP:

Both of UNC’s outside linebackers—Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter—have more  consecutive starts than LSU’s outside linebackers have combined tackles in 2009. LSU                    loses Coleman, Riley and Cutrera (combined 260 tackles, 20 TFL, 5 sacks), and will have  a tough time replacing their experience. John Shoop might try to capitalize on LSU’s young LBs by using even more misdirection than usual, although Sheppard is fantastic at diagnosing run or pass.

Secondary:

CB- Morris Claiborne (SOPH) (only appeared in 7 games in 2009)

Claiborne doesn’t have a lot of game experience at cornerback, but he’s blessed with top end speed, and an All-American mentor at CB in teammate Patrick Peterson. A former 100            meter dash state champion (10.76), Claiborne will get picked on quite a bit when opponents choose to pass.

CB- Patrick Peterson (JR) (52 tackles, 2 INT; top CB prospect for NFL draft)

At almost 220 lbs, Peterson runs a 4.2 40 yard dash and has a 39 inch vertical. Plus, he’s a phenomenal cover-corner and a great open-field tackler. In other words, there won’t be a lot of throws in Peterson’s direction.

FS- Jai Eugene (SR)—(2 starts in 2009, both at CB)

SS- Brandon Taylor (JR)—(10 starts in 2009)

S- Craig Loston (5 star recruit in class of 2008)

MATCHUP:

The secondary looks like the strength of the LSU defense. Peterson is the best cornerback in the nation, and Claiborne, Taylor and Eugene have the speed and coverage skills to        blanket UNC’s relatively young wide receivers. UNC won’t throw at Peterson, so if   Claiborne can take away Boyd or Highsmith in man coverage, the Heels will have an awful                passing performance in the Georgia Dome. If Greg Little doesn’t play, UNC will need Josh Adams or Dwight Jones to step up big time!

Defensive Game Plan:

LSU’s defense struggled in 3rd and medium situations last fall, so to avoid those situations, the Tigers need to create some negative plays on first and second down. That means run- blitzing to take away Houston and Draughn and playing tight man-to-man coverage to force Yates (or Renner) to throw down the field (as opposed to higher percentage throws like WR bubble screens). Chavis has the talent and experience in the secondary to mix up coverages, but I expect him to stick with mostly man-to-man defense, relying on the speed of his young front four, the talent of his secondary, and the play recognition of his star   linebacker Kelvin Sheppard to cripple Carolina’s offensive strengths.

Special Teams:

K- Josh Jasper (17 of 20 FG; 6-8 from beyond 40 yards; long of 52 yards)

P- Derek Helton

KR-Ron Brooks

PR- Patrick Peterson

MATCHUP:

Carolina’s special teams will benefit from the returns of co-captains Ryan Taylor and Matt Merletti, both of whom missed 2009 with injuries after starring on special teams in             previous years. LSU and Carolina both have outstanding punt return and punt coverage teams, while neither team has particularly strong kickoff units. LSU’s kicker has more             range than Barth, but the Tigers suffer two enormous losses from their 2009 units in the departures of Trindon Holliday (18.9 yards/punt return) and Chad Jones (21 yards/punt                return). Explosive star CB Patrick Peterson could bring similar skills to the return game, but it seems that LSU is getting worse on special teams while UNC, who finally has some depth   on the roster, is getting faster and better.

OUTCOME:

LSU returns All-America candidates Patrick Peterson and Kelvin Sheppard on defense, but they lose a ton of talent from the 2009 team, including:

-  4 out of their top 5 tacklers

-  11.5 of their 21 sacks

-   7 out of their 13 interceptions

-   7 out of their 10 forced fumbles

-  13 out of their 22 QB hurries

So who makes the plays for the Tiger defense in 2010? The stars (Recruiting stars, that is) say that LSU’s redshirt freshmen will , but we Carolina fans know that young, highly touted      freshmen often don’t live up to the hype in the early going. If young players don’t deliver immediate results—especially at the linebacker position—Carolina’s offense could control     the clock and the game.

Offensively, LSU OC Gary Crowton has lots of toys to play with (Shepard, Tolliver, Ford),  but can’t seem to get them to shine behind an inconsistent offensive line. Fortunately      though, he’ll be throwing his usual curve balls and trick plays at what should be a very inexperienced Tar Heel defense that could be missing its top 6 players.

PREDICTED SCORE:

LSU 23 UNC 14

Tags: , ,
Posted in Football, Uncategorized | No Comments »

Know Your Coastal Division Enemies: Duke – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

Wednesday, August 25th, 2010

When Duke jumped out to a 5-3 start last fall, I almost, almost believed that David Cutcliffe had the coaching know-how to turn Durham’s gridiron Dust Devils into a perennial—or at least occasional—bowl team. Unfortunately for Thad Lewis and Duke, an utter lack of defensive talent and overall team size and speed undid the Devils in 2009, sending them to four consecutive losses vs. UNC, GT, Wake Forest, and Miami to close Cutcliffe’s 2nd season. When the dust settled, all Duke had to show for its “breakthrough” year was a 5-7 record and another extra long, football-free winter break.

If 5-7 is a “breakthrough” season at Duke, you can imagine what “rebuilding years” are like in Durham. After the graduation of super QB Thad Lewis, DT Vince Oghobaase, LB Vincent Rey, and DE Ayanga Okpokowuruk, David Cutcliffe is about to find out first hand just how hard it is to rebuild such a perennially shanty program without the SEC lumber he’s used to having at his disposal.

But the offense, if sophomore QB Sean Renfree (4 star recruit) recovers well from ACL reconstruction surgery, shouldn’t need much rebuilding, at least in the passing game. Austin Kelly, Donovan Varner, and Conner Vernon—all of whom snagged 50 or more passes in 2009—form one of the ACC’s best receiving units—-although without Lewis tossing them the potato, who knows how they’ll play in 2010? Sustaining their 2009 success depends on avoiding injuries (all three have been nicked up in summer camp) and the development of Renfree, who almost certainly will not play at Lewis’ level. Also important will be the growth of the nation’s worst rushing offense, which averaged just 63.5 yards per game last fall.

The Devils’ pass-happy one-back offense, modeled in some ways after the Colts’ offense, doesn’t need a 1,000 yard, or even a 500 yard back, to be an effective ACC attack. What it does need, however, is a running game that can break open just enough draws, stretches  and counter plays to keep a defense honest the way Donald Brown and Joseph Addai—who averaged a meager 3.5 to 4 yards per carry in 2009—have been able to do for Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts. In 2009, Duke’s longest run after 8 games (not including their game vs. 2-6 FCS squad, NC Central) was 17 yards, which is to say the Devils couldn’t run on a treadmill, let alone an ACC defense. When they faced tougher Coastal Division foes, this lack of balance sent them careening down the stairs towards the ACC Coastal Division cellar, where, thanks to Virginia, they landed on the second to last step.

At tailback, Duke features diminutive scatbacks Desmond Scott, Jay Hollingsworth, Patrick Kurunwune and Joshua Snead, a fleet footed freshman coming into Durham with a 4-star rating from Rivals.com. As I said last year, Duke’s running backs would all be pretty effective third down backs, but when it comes to grinding out yards against a tough defensive front 7, forget about it. Unless Snead is hiding a lot of power in his 168 pound frame, that won’t change this fall. Balance doesn’t always matter for offenses, especially in the college game, but it’s hard to imagine a first-time starter like Renfree having a good season with zero running game to fall back on.

Duke does return 4 starters on the offensive line (as well as two talented tight ends in Brent Huffman and Brandon King), but, like the tailbacks, they’re somewhat undersized and physically overwhelmed against powerful defensive fronts that KNOW the pass is coming. Center Bryan Morgan (255 lbs) and RG Brian Moore (275 lb) have been fairly effective pass blockers, but both players lack the power to make up for the 30+ pounds they will give up against elite Coastal Division defensive tackles like UNC’s Marvin Austin.

Defensively, Duke also lacks the size and power to compete for a Coastal Division title. Even with Oghobaase and Rey—two of the best defensive players in school history— the Devils gave up 164 rushing yards to unspectacular UNC tailback Ryan Houston in a 19-6 loss in Chapel Hill last fall. Without these two defensive anchors, expect Virginia Tech, Miami, UNC, Georgia Tech, Navy, Alabama (I can’t wait to watch this game), and Boston College to have similarly dominant performances against Duke’s defensive front this fall.

Cutcliffe’s Devils have certainly improved since his arrival. Not only do they have a trio of talented wide receivers that could start almost anywhere, they also have one of the best special teams units in the ACC. Still, because of their smaller, weaker lines, Duke’s talented receivers and defensive backs will not produce at the level they are capable of. When opposing defenses don’t have to honor the running game, QBs get pounded and receivers have less time to get open. When a defense can’t stop the run, defensive backs have to creep towards the line of scrimmage, opening up the vertical passing game for your opponents.

With a schedule that includes games vs. defending national champion Alabama, rapidly-improving Army, powerful Miami, consistent BC, and defensive-minded UNC—as well as a trip to Blacksburg (VT) and two road games vs. brutally effective triple option offenses—Anapolis (Navy) and Atlanta (GT)—Cutcliffe’s rebuilding Duke squad will be lucky to escape this fall with 5 wins.

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Football, Uncategorized | No Comments »

Carolina Football Preview Part 8: Special Teams – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

Monday, August 23rd, 2010

2009 Grade: C

2010 Grade: B-

K- Casey Barth- Barth has put up some impressive numbers at Carolina (84% FG in 2009), but he just doesn’t inspire confidence in me the way his older brother did. He lacks the leg strength to be effective outside of 45 yards (his career long is 42!), and all of his closer field goals seem dangerously low, like the one that NCSU blocked late in 2009.

P- Grant Schallock- Other than an unbelievable neck tackle on Virginia Tech’s Jayron Hosley, Schallock had a pretty forgettable season. Many of his punts turned over—horizontally—making them difficult to return (no one seemed to want to catch these wobbling attempts), but also short (average of 40.3 yards) and difficult to place.

PR- Da’Norris Searcy- Searcy finished in the top 5 in the nation in punt returns last fall, averaging 14.6 yards per return.  He also averaged 23 yards per kickoff return.

KR- Charlie Brown/Greg Little- I’d like to see the coaching staff insert some new faces   here—to try to inject some explosiveness into the return game AND to avoid a potentially  devastating injury to Greg Little or Charlie Brown. I think Jheranie Boyd and Hunter Furr (who finished 1 and 2 in the NC high school 100 m dash in 2008) could make for a dynamic          returning duo.

Kick Blocking

After blocking 4 consecutive punts (that HAS to be an NCAA record—maybe even a record for the sport of football—in general!) in 2008, Bruce Carter didn’t get a hand on a kick this past fall. One of the big defensive linemen got a paw on a field goal vs. ECU, but other than that, the Heels didn’t block any kicks in 2009.

Two of our kicks—one punt and one field goal—were blocked in 2009, although both blocks came in key rivalry games. Duke smothered a punt early against Carolina while NCSU knocked down Casey Barth’s attempted game winner in the regular season finale. I have to think that this is an area where four years of Butch Davis recruiting starts to come in handy. Better athletes, better chances to block a few kicks in 2010.

Kick Coverage:

One underrated storyline this fall will be the return of special teams captains Ryan Taylor and Matt Merletti to the punt and kickoff units. Both had spectacular 2008 seasons on special teams and should provide an immediate boost to the team. Their injuries in 2009 afforded players like Shane Mularkey and Hunter Furr (perhaps the fastest player on the team) great opportunities to develop into strong contributors on special teams as well.

Tags: , , , , , , ,
Posted in Football, Uncategorized | No Comments »

Carolina Football Preview Part 5: The Defensive Line – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

Defensive Line

2009 Grade: A-

2010 Grade: A-

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that UNC Defensive Line Coach John Blake—despite his current debacle with the NCAA—has been almost as big of a factor in Carolina’s football resurgence as Head Coach Butch Davis. Three years ago, the burly Blake hauled in some of Carolina’s key recruits including Marvin Austin and Greg Little. Since then, he’s signed a number of other key Carolina players—too many to list here—and established himself as one of the best recruiters in the country.

As defensive line coach, Blake has turned what was once a slow, out-of-shape front four into the heart of the Carolina football program. This boisterous group, often seen dancing around during pre-game warm-ups, is deep, dominant, and bursting with NFL potential.

The Carolina defensive ends might be the best in the country. Speedy, 6’5 junior Robert Quinn racked up 19 TFL and 11 sacks in 2009, good enough to earn first team All-ACC honors. At the other starting end position, junior Michael McAdoo (4 sacks, INT in the Spring Game—7 TFL in 2009) brings size and impressive athletic ability as well; his diving interception of a tipped pass in the Spring Game was incredible. Two other scary defensive ends will see plenty of work in John Blake’s substitution-heavy rotation: 6’6 junior Quentin Coples (6.5 TFL, 5 sacks), a lanky and disruptive force with quite a bit of experience, as well as sophomore Donte Paige-Moss (5 tackles, 2 sacks), a former 5 star recruit and pass-rushing specialist rated by Rivals.com as the 16thbest high school player in the nation in 2008. Quinn, Coples, and McAdoo all saw big improvements in their sophomore years (after playing as true freshmen), and I expect similar growth this year from Paige-Moss who disappointed a bit in 2009 but has added 35 pounds of muscle since coming to UNC.

The only concern for the ends could be the power running game—2009 graduate, 290 lb. EJ Wilson (12 TFL, NFL draft pick) didn’t provide much of a pass rush last fall, but he was a bigger, much more powerful run-stopper than Coples (280 lb), McAdoo (245 lb) and Moss (260 lb) have been so far early in their careers, although McAdoo and Moss have bulked up in the offseason.

At the defensive tackle position, Carolina is also strong, although not nearly as deep. Massive senior tackle Marvin Austin (42 tackles, 6 TFL, 4 sacks; Mel Kiper’s #1 rated DT) demands constant double teams, while co-starter Tydreke Powell (4-star recruit in 2007; 24 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 sacks in 2009) has loads of talent and experience as well. Powell is best known for forcing a fumble by Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams that led to the Heels’ upset win in Blacksburg last fall.

Backing up Austin and Powell will be a talented but far less experienced group, a group that will struggle to match the production of recently graduated buffet-busters Cam Thomas (5th round pick) and AlericMullins, who successfully plugged the middle of the field over the past few seasons. The loss of Mullins and Thomas is undoubtedly a big blow to the defense; if Carolina also loses Marvin Austin to NCAA violations, defensive tackle could go from a position of extreme strength in 2009 to a liability in 2010—much like Roy Williams’ frontcourt. But coaches have given DE Quentin Coples, now up to 280 lbs, tons of reps at defensive tackle to prepare for a possible Austin suspension. He won’t be completely inexperienced at the position either, since coaches had already penciled him in as a pass-rushing defensive tackle in the Heels’ nickel package.

Redshirt freshman Jared McAdoo (4 star recruit—facing some disciplinary action for having a bibi gun on campus), junior Jordan Nix (3 star recruit—transfer from Oklahoma), and true freshman Brandon Willis (4 star recruit) will also see time in the nose tackle and defensive tackle positions, respectively. Willis, a former Tennessee commit who picked Carolina when Lane Kiffin left Knoxville for USC, enrolled early for Spring Practice and could be inserted as a smaller, pass-rushing defensive tackle in obvious passing situations.

There’s good news and bad news for this unit in 2010. The good news? Two out of the starting front four will likely be drafted in the first round this spring—and, most likely, due to the closing of Cluck University Chicken on Franklin St., the unit will show up at camp in exceptional physical condition. However, if Austin misses this season and Nix, Willis and Jared McAdoo don’t develop quickly— defensive tackle is one of the hardest positions to play without experience— Carolina’s all-star defense might have a bit of a problem on its hands.

Carolina returns tons of pass-rushing prowess and secondary experience this year, much like Florida’s heralded defense last fall, which returned its entire two deep from its 2008 National Title run. But, as Florida fans know, its primary strengths (pass defense, pass rush) forced teams right at its primary weakness (interior run defense), ultimately leading to the Gators’ blowout loss to power-runner Mark Ingram and the Alabama Crimson Tide. Expect teams to avoid Carolina’s speed at end and linebacker by running up the middle, especially when Austin and Powell have rotated out of the game. When Moss sees time at end, offensive coordinators will likely run at him as well, due to his slight frame and even slighter experience.

Aside from developing overall depth(in anticipation of the 2011 exodus of defensive talent), I think the most important issue for this year’s defense is developing depth, specifically behind Austin and Powell.  In a Coastal Division featuring powerful interior runners such as Josh Nesbitt, Anthony Allen, Darren Evans, and Ryan Williams, depth at defensive tackle will be hugely important.  If we don’t find some reliable defensive tackles, you can bet tougher opponents will cram the ball right up the middle, melting the clock, eliminating the risk of big plays by our talented secondary, and forcing Carolina’s offense to score without help from turnovers in the passing game.

Outcome/Predictions:

This group will be the best in the conference and possibly the best in the nation. At least one out of the three inexperienced DTs will emerge as a powerful backup. I wouldn’t be surprised if McAdoo or Coples finishes the season with more TFL and sacks than Quinn, who will face double and triple teams almost every play.

Projected 2010 Statistics (defensive ends):

DE- Quinn (50 tackles, 14 TFL, 7.5 sacks)

DE- McAdoo (51 tackles, 12 TFL, 8 sacks)

DE- Moss (25 tackles, 7 TFL, 5 sacks)

DE- Coples (40 tackles, 11 TFL, 3 sacks)

ACC Coastal DE Rankings

1)      UNC

2)      Miami

3)      Georgia Tech

4)      Virginia Tech

5)      Virginia

6)      Duke

Projected 2010 Statistics (defensive tackles):

DT- Powell (30 tackles, 4 TFL, 3 sacks)

DT- Austin (44 tackles, 7 TFL, 3 sacks)

DT- Willis (14 tackles, 2 TFL)

DT-McAdoo (11 tackles, 4 TFL)

DT- Nix (11 tackles, TFL)

ACC Coastal DT Rankings

1)      Miami

2)      UNC

3)      Virginia Tech

4)      Georgia Tech

5)      Virginia

6)      Duke

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in Football | 1 Comment »

Carolina Football Preview Part 4- The Offensive Line – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

Monday, August 16th, 2010

2009 Grade: C-

2010 Grade: C+

I haven’t heard much this offseason about the offensive line, and if last year is any proof, no news is good news.

Last summer, Carolina’s offensive line crumbled like a Cheez-It under a steamroller, losing a number of expected contributors before the season even started. Aaron Stahl, expected to bring senior leadership to the starting line, decided to give up football. Kevin Bryant, once a highly touted offensive line recruit, ran into some legal troubles and left the university. Carl Gaskins, a sophomore tackle with a good chance to start opposite Kyle Jolly, tore his ACL, requiring surgery and a year away from football.

Once the ACL popped, the injuries didn’t stop: Lowell Dyer, a starter at center, missed most of the season with nagging shoulder problems. Jonathan Cooper, who had moved to center to replace the injured Dyer (thus pushing freshman Travis Bond into the starting lineup), suffered a few ankle sprains of his own, limiting his participation and thrusting untested sophomore center Cam Holland into the mix. Tackles Mike Ingersoll and Kyle Jolly had a few minor injuries as well, meaning that freshman Brennan Williams and newly converted defensive lineman Greg Elleby saw some (ugly) game action, as well.

I honestly think the Carolina offensive line emerges from the wreckage of the 2009 season with a few things working in their favor for 2010. First of all, the injury bug cannot possibly get any worse*. Secondly, the injuries that Carolina did suffer in 2009 made the current offensive linemen more versatile, buffering the Heels against possible injuries in 2010.

Cooper, now just a sophomore, has started at both center and left guard, making him all the more valuable in the case of injuries. Alan Pelc has also played and succeeded at both positions, well enough apparently to be an early member of the 2010 Outland Trophy Watch List (along with Marvin Austin of the defensive line). Cam Holland, who never would have seen significant snaps without injuries, has emerged as a solid option at center whose improvement gives O-Line Coach Sam Pittman the option of moving Cooper and Pelc to the left and right guard spots, respectively—in case of an injury to Travis Bond. Senior Greg Elleby received “baptism by fire” against All-Big East DE Lindsey Witten of UConn, and because of it, brings playing experience to his backup tackle position— where he and sophomore Brennan Williams—as well as redshirt freshman David Collins— have the talent, size, and strength to step in and contribute this fall.

Third of all, Carolina’s talent level on the offensive line has never been higher in the Davis era** after the commitments of 4-star prospects James Hurst (the #32 overall prospect in the nation) and TJ Leifheit (recovering from ankle surgery), both of whom enrolled early and enjoyed the benefits of spring practice, where they faced some of the best defensive linemen in the country. I realize that it’s hard to contribute as a true freshman on the offensive line, but it’s comforting to know that we have talented players waiting in the wings. Lastly, I think that newcomers on the offensive line—whether we’re talking about the freshmen, a first time starter like Gaskins, or an inexperienced backup like Ellerbe—will benefit hugely from practicing against what I believe could be the best defensive line in the country. Robert Quinn and Marvin Austin could be the best players at their position in the college game , so if our linemen can corral them (occasionally) in practice, they should feel pretty confident about facing other ACC linemen.

More good news—many of our opponents in 2010 have lost key defensive linemen from 2009 to graduation or the NFL, and that should also make the offensive line’s job slightly easier this fall. All-league defensive linemen Jason Worilds of Virginia Tech, Derrick Morgan of Georgia Tech, Willie Young of NCSU, Ricky Sapp of Clemson, Vince Oghoobaase of Duke, and CJ Wilson of ECU all have moved on to the NFL, leaving less experienced and less talented players behind to fill their shoes. I’ve heard some folks predict that 2010 will be the year of the offense in the ACC, and this exodus of talented defensive linemen seems to support that theory.

All positives aside, I’m concerned about the left tackle position, where Carl Gaskins is set to take over for graduated senior Kyle Jolly. At this point, we really just don’t know how Carl will hold up in the spotlight, especially against a fired up team like LSU. One major mishap for Gaskins and the QB debate might be over—(a Yates concussion or injury thrusts Renner right into the starting job)—that’s a scary situation to be in. If Gaskins doesn’t play well at tackle, I’m not sure Hurst (who got roasted by Michael McAdoo in the Spring Game) will be ready to contribute. I imagine that Pittman will prepare Ingersoll—or even Pelc (who can play all five positions according to Davis)— to play left tackle as well, just in case one out of the group— Hurst, Gaskins, Collins and Williams—doesn’t emerge as  a solid option at left tackle.

I’ll close this preview with an optimistic quote from a reliable source, CB Kendric Burney.

“The offensive line has gotten ten times better from what a lot of people considered them last year, they went through some bumps and bruises, but they’ve definitely brought everything, plus more, to our defense this year. We (the defense) sometimes don’t win.”

*Okay—it could be worse if you’re at NC State.

**And the talent’s getting even better! Carolina has already gained commitments from offensive linemen Kiaro Holts, Landon Turner, and Jarrod James—all 4 star recruits according to ESPN.com—for its 2011 class. Jamar Lewter is also a big time offensive line recruit in the 2011 class.

Predicted Starting Lineup 2010

LT- Carl Gaskins- expected to start at RT last year before tearing his ACL; now “100%”; owns UNC record for fastest offensive lineman (4.87 in the 40 at 300 lbs!)

LG- Alan Pelc- started all 13 games last year; Outland Trophy watch list

C- Jonathan Cooper- very vocal, mobile center with NFL potential

RG- Travis Bond- HUGE freshman with starting experience

RT- Mike Ingersoll- started all of last year

Other Contributors:

LT- James Hurst—#32 overall recruit in class of 2010 according to Rivals.com

C- Cam Holland—has lots of starting experience at center

RT- Brennan Williams—lanky as a freshman…also has starting experience

G/T- David Collins

T- TJ Leifheit—4 star recruit enrolled early, but just had ankle surgery

ACC Coastal Offensive Line Rankings

1)      Georgia Tech

2)      Virginia Tech

3)      Miami

4)      Virginia

5)      UNC

6)      Duke

Tags: , ,
Posted in Football, Uncategorized, University | No Comments »

Carolina Football Preview Part 2: Running on Empty: RBs and FBs – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

Tuesday, August 10th, 2010

2009 Grade: B-

2010 Grade: B-

In my three years as a Carolina student (and Carolina football fan), I’ve witnessed brilliant blocked punts (Bruce Carter’s trifecta vs. UConn 2008), interception return laterals (Kendric Burney vs. Miami 2010), and yes, even some beautifully lofted TJ Yates deep balls.

But I only recall a few explosive runs by Carolina tailbacks—enough to count on one hand, in fact—even if that particular hand had suffered a tragic farming accident, or some sort of birth defect (Or if that hand was a giant “#1” fan finger).

Off hand (pun unintended, noticed during editing, and left in), I remember ONE explosive run by a player currently listed as a back (RB or FB) on the UNC depth chart—a 39 yard TD run by FB Anthony Elzy against a hapless, hopeless, and helpless Miami Hurricanes squad that put the U in UGLY during its bowl-less 2007 season*. But it’s not just a lack of explosiveness that’s plagued the Carolina rushing attack. In the 18 games that Butch Davis has lost as head coach at UNC, there have been only 2 100 yard rushing games by Carolina tailbacks—both by Shaun Draughn in losses to UVa (2008) and FSU (2009). In the other 16 losses, Carolina has averaged a Blue-Devil-esque 78 yards per game on the ground.

As a position group, the Carolina tailbacks have struggled to make much of an impact on an unproductive offense. So who comes first in the blame game, chicken or egg, offensive line or tailbacks, ball carriers or the rest of the offense, which most certainly dropped the ball in 2009?

At the risk of sounding boring, I’ll avoid the question all together. As my volleyball coach once said, if you get a bad pass, or a bad set, your job is to make it better. The Carolina backs, above all, have lacked the explosiveness to make a struggling, patchwork offensive line look better. And for the Carolina offense to achieve the potent balance characteristic of Davis’ Miami teams (think Clinton Portis, James Jackson, Edjerrin James), one of the cars in the RB garage needs to start accelerating (or more specifically, juking, stiff-arming, steamrolling) past the troubles of what’s been an unreliable Tar Heel front five.

So will the rancid running game sweeten up in 2010?

I’d bet that it will improve—largely due to the improved continuity and experience of the offensive line—but not a lot. Since employing a committee of freshman tailbacks in 2007 (Houston, White, and Elzy), Davis and RB Coach Ken Browning have shown faith in experienced backs, keeping promising talents (think Jamal Womble) on the bench even as the running game stalled out in conference play. And experience, in this case, means Draughn (567 yards, 4.6 ypc, TD) —who converted from safety two seasons ago—and Houston, a surprisingly agile power runner with very little burst and even less upside.

Apparently, Draughn has bounced back from his shoulder blade injury in unbelievable condition—faster and more explosive than ever (do they ever NOT say that?). Most likely, he’ll still receive the majority of the carries. Possibly, he’ll become the only UNC back in the last decade to finish with 1,000 yards rushing in a single season.

Houston (713 yards, 3.7 ypc, 9 TD; long run of just 20 yards), after a successful if also unspectacular (other than a 164 yard outing vs. Duke) season (and a spring suspension), has a strangle-hold on short yardage duty, a limited but growing job in which he has excelled. The rest of the tailback carries, as far as I can tell, will be spread among explosive ‘tweeners such as Johnny White (who rushed for 83 yards on 7 carries vs. NCSU and had 17 total offensive touches in the final 3 games), AJ Blue (who took a number of direct snaps in the “Diesel” formation last fall before a knee injury) and possibly even Mywan Jackson (a backup cornerback who picked up 12 yards on a shovel pass last fall). White caught a pass out of the backfield against Pittsburgh and was a very dangerous receiver as a freshman in 2007, racking up 159 yards despite splitting time with Elzy and Ryan Houston.

I’d be lying though if I told you these speedsters will get any more than a few crumbs from the real bread and butter of the Carolina perimeter running game: the reverse, which Carolina coordinator/playcaller John Shoop almost certainly dials up more than any offensive coach in the country. Former tailback Greg Little (29 carries for 166 yards) and speedy split end Jhey Boyd (20 carries for 130 yards) will both get more carries this fall than White, Blue, or Jackson, although White could develop into a 3-4 carry per game wild card for the offense, given his speed and versatility.

If the running game gets off to a slow start, I’d love to see the staff give true freshman, 4-star recruit Giovanni Bernard a chance—his brother Yvenson was a patient, quietly productive runner for Oregon State—but Bernard tore his ACL in one of the first practices and will have to wait until 2011 to showcase his talents.

At fullback, Elzy brings a ton of speed which he has used to turn short dump passes in the flat into 15-20 yard gains while Devon Ramsey is a better blocker who also has good hands.

*UPDATE: After some research, I realized I am missing a few big runs by Draughn: a 39 yard TD vs. UConn in 2008, a 36 yard run vs. GT in 2008, a 26 yarder against FSU’s atrocious 2009 defense, and a 44 yard run vs. VT in 2009, when lined up as a slot receiver. My point, I think, is proven by the fact that these runs are not exactly memorable.*

Outlook/Predictions:

I think that we should lend Virginia Tech a few NCAA banners to hang up in their empty Cassell Coliseum rafters in exchange for one of their super-talented (and super bench-warming) running backs like David Wilson.

All joking aside, don’t expect a lot of improvement from this position group in 2010. There’s not a Ryan Williams (or even an Anthony Allen) level talent here in Chapel Hill, and no amount of experience will change that. Still, if Draughn can break a few more big runs and Houston can continue gutting tired defenses in short-yardage situations—this group can play a role in the improvement of one of the conference’s worst offenses from 2009.

Projected 2010 Statistics:

Draughn (225 carries 970 yards, 5 TD); 20 catches for 150 yards

Houston (95 carries 380 yards, 9 TD)

White (30 carries 145 yards, 0 TD); 10 catches for 120 yards

ACC Coastal Position RB Rankings:

1)      Virginia Tech

2)      Georgia Tech

3)      Miami

4)      North Carolina

5)      Virginia

6)      Duke

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in Football, Uncategorized, University | 1 Comment »

Carolina Football Preview: Part 1—Quarterback – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

Tuesday, August 3rd, 2010

Quarterback

2009 Grade: C-

2010 Grade: B-

Backup quarterbacks are like brand new action figures, still in the package—shiny, smiling, and unstained by experience. Check out the box, and you can see their gaudy high school numbers, their gossip-inflated physical traits (It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s the backup QB!), and sometimes their All-America accolades, too.

In the eyes of an impatient fan base, backup quarterbacks are invincible, unerring, and, significantly more popular around town—especially when the starters ahead of them struggle as much as Yates did in 2009.

But when the #2 QB comes into the game—(just like when children unwrap their favorite super hero from his elaborate packaging and find out that he doesn’t fly and rarely does the cool stunts from the commercial)—impatient fans often learn that backup quarterbacks (remember when Bunting unwrapped 4 star freshman QB Cam Sexton to massive cheers in 2006—only to see him throw two quick interceptions against VT?) struggle to live up to the massive expectations set for them by Lee Corso, Jim Bob Tarheel, and the hype-hungry recruiting services.

All I mean to say is that if Butch Davis takes Bryn Renner out of the box this season, don’t expect him to throw (or stop) speeding bullets, leap pylons (or buildings) and single-handedly save Carolina football in 2010, like Superman, Spiderman, or Tim Tebow might. Is Renner talented? Yes. SUPER-talented? Probably not.

With that in mind, let’s take another look at the Carolina QB controversy, which could be little more than fans finding the grass greener—much greener—-on the other, inexperienced side of the depth chart. (In other news, the grass on the field—where TJ Yates has played and defeated  some pretty good teams—is definitely greener than the practice field, where Bryn Renner has done all of his damage).

For starters, here’s a refresher on TJ’s career so far in Carolina blue. (Hint: it’s not as bad as you might think.)

As a freshman, TJ Yates threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs against both 9-win Virginia and 8-win ECU, respectively, before suffering some shoulder issues and fading down the stretch. In his sophomore campaign, once again blessed with the services of a healthy offensive line and talented wide receivers, he led the ACC in passing efficiency after 4 games (finishing the year with an outstanding 153.6 rating), including a 3 TD performance against 8-win Rutgers and 2.5 quarters of mistake-free football against 10-win Virginia Tech—before a broken ankle crippled his promising second season. Yates came back from injury and finished the 2008 campaign by throwing for 200+ yards and 2 scores against a 9 win WVU team, before a late interception ended the game. It’s also worth noting that in both of these seasons, the Tar Heels were unable to run the ball against solid defenses, another challenge that has made T.J.’s job that much harder.

After those two potential-filled, injury-ended seasons, Yates played terribly in 2009—I won’t deny that. With the exception of strong outings against ECU, Miami, NCSU and VT, he played frantically, cautiously, erratically. He had 4 games with a putrid, sub-100 QB rating and went 7 consecutive games (from 10/3 to 11/28) without completing a pass of 30 yards or longer!

Still, it’s also important to note the pieces around him that contributed (notice how I did not say, caused) to his poor play—and frankly, would have dragged down just about any quarterback’s quality of play. (Ask Sam Bradford how much a bad offensive line can hurt a quarterback’s success—after throwing 50 TDs in his 2008 Heisman season, he struggled mightily behind a rebuilt offensive line in 2009). In 2009, the Carolina offensive line (“the dotted line”) suffered a ton of injuries, leading to the unit’s lack of cohesiveness throughout the season. Because of the injuries, freshmen Travis Bond and Brennan Williams as well as sophomore Cam Holland all saw action earlier than expected—against the strongest defensive linemen in the country. (Note: the ACC produces more defensive draft picks than any other conference).

Consequently, Yates and the young, inconsistent receivers (who had their share of drops) had to mount a passing game without any help from the running game, which lost its only dose of speed when Shaun Draughn broke his shoulder blade in the November win over Duke. Making matters worse, Yates’ favorite target, Zack Pianalto, was out for 6 weeks in the middle of the season after breaking his foot at the end of a dramatic comeback victory against 8-win Connecticut—one of a few impressive comebacks in Yates’ Carolina career*. Poetically speaking, Pianalto’s injury was like stealing a hobo’s food and clothes before leaving—and then turning back around and pushing his empty grocery cart off of an overpass.

In three seasons, Yates (read: the hobo) has played against ferocious pass rushers, savvy safeties and All-American linebackers. He’s seen all sorts of defensive schemes (4-3, 3-4, 4-2-5, 3-3-5 stack) and played in some of the toughest environments in the country. Miraculously, he even won a Thursday night game in Blacksburg, a nearly impossible feat to pull off with such a young offensive unit. I think that Yates should start the season not just because of his age and experience, but also because of his success, which Carolina fans tend to forget about. He’s led Carolina to wins over top 25 teams, at home and on the road; he’s led Carolina back from behind in the 4th quarter on a number of occasions, as well (see below).

When the Heels square off against LSU’s ferocious Tiger defense on September 4th, I’d rather have an experienced QB** in the game—especially since LSU D-Coordinator John Chavis has had 8 months to prepare for it. Yates has shown that he can play well (at least occasionally) against top teams. As for Renner, we just don’t know.

Still, Renner’s Spring Game performance (good, but not great…14 of 26 for 122 yards, TD, INT…against a mixed and matched defense—that didn’t blitz) showed that he’s probably ready to play and definitely ready to challenge the senior QB for the starting job. Renner’s not action-hero fast, but he’s faster than Yates, certainly, which could make him particularly valuable if the offensive line continues to struggle in pass blocking situations. Additionally, Renner showed off great accuracy in the short-to-medium range passing game, which is critical for the success of the Carolina offense. Ultimately, Renner showed us that he’s the quarterback of the future—but in my opinion, he hasn’t done quite enough yet to supplant Yates, the QB of the present in Chapel Hill.

With arguably the nation’s top defense behind him, Yates doesn’t need to have an All-America, All-Conference, or even All-State-of-North-Carolina season for this team to get to a BCS bowl game. He simply needs to play smart, efficient football, a la Greg McElroy of Alabama or Ken Dorsey of Butch Davis’ old Miami teams. McElroy, who played pretty unspectacular football in leading Alabama to the National Title in 2009, might be considered the poor man’s Ken Dorsey—who, despite his lack of elite talent, was twice invited to the Heisman ceremony in New York. If the defense (and the rest of the offense) plays up to their potential, all Yates will have to do is play like the poor man’s McElroy (the poor man’s Dorsey’s poor man) and UNC will back out from under the car, wipe off the grease, and move ahead to a future of non-muffler bowl games.

For Yates, that means limiting turnovers, not taking sacks if you can throw the ball away, and, most importantly, it means getting the ball to the playmakers on offense—Little, Boyd, Highsmith and Pianalto. Occasionally, Yates (60% career completion percentage) has had a tendency to short arm simple passes like bubble screens and quick curls and slants, and that, my friends, falls squarely on his shoulders. If this problem persists and/or Yates continues turning over the ball frequently, I’ll be the first fan to call for Renner. Until then, let’s put our eggs in Yates’ basket. He’s been key to building this program from ACC doormat (4 wins) to ACC contender (back to back 8 win seasons); maybe he can lead us to the top of the league as well.

*So Close, Yates so Far Away:

Just to prove that Yates DOES have what it takes to lead a 4th quarter charge against good teams in hostile environments, I’ve searched through the box scores and discovered that, believe it or not, Yates has had some pretty solid 4th quarter showings in his Carolina career.

If we hadn’t botched two field goal attempts at ECU and at NCSU (No, Carolina fans…you can’t blame that on Yates, too), Yates would have four 4th quarter comeback victories in his career, coming in 4 hostile environments. As it is, he has two impressive road comebacks, at Virginia Tech and at UConn—both in 2009. A few defensive stops and a few more breaks in Carolina’s way, and Yates would have a list of 6-7 4th quarter comebacks against solid, bowl teams.

2007: @ 8 win ECU—Yates drove the Heels 45 yards, set up FG attempt to win with 55 seconds left: FG was blocked, and ECU then kicked FG 50 seconds later to win 34-31

2007: vs. 9 win UVA—down 19-7 in 3rd quarter; in 4th, Yates led Heels on 85 yard TD drive in just 1:57 late in 4th quarter; 2 PT conversion attempt for the tie was deflected; UNC loses 22 to 20

2007: vs. #6 South Carolina—down 21-3 at halftime; Yates leads two TD drives in 4th quarter; Greg Little drops a perfectly thrown fade on 4th down; UNC loses 21-15

2007: @ NCSU—down 17-0 in first half; down 31-27 in 4th quarter, Yates leads UNC offense 56 yards in final 1:20 to the NCSU 7 yard line; Hakeem Nicks knocked down (pass interference) on final play of game—no call; UNC loses 31-27

2007: @ 7 win GT—down 26-21, Yates leads UNC on TD drive to take lead with 5:50 left;  defense surrenders late FG and GT wins, 29-27.

2009: @ 8 win UConn—down 10-0 in 4th quarter, Yates leads UNC on scoring drives of 78 and 76 yards to tie the game; a safety wins the game for UNC, 12-10

2009: @ 10 win  #13 VT—down 17-14 in 4th quarter, Yates leads UNC on 16 play 78 yard, FG drive which includes a 4th and 7 completion to Greg Little for 19 yards

2009: @ 5 win NCSU—down 28-27 in 4th quarter, Yates leads UNC on drive to set up Barth FG attempt for the win; the kick is blocked

Despite these impressive comebacks and near-comebacks, Yates has gone a combined 89 of 144 for 887 yards, 3 TD and 6 INT (112.09 rating) in the 4th quarters of undecided games against FBS opponents.

Because I wanted to get a sense of Yates’ performance under pressure, I did not include his statistics from games where Carolina was up by a lot—or down by a lot—heading into the fourth quarter.  By this measure, the Renner-supporters are right—Yates is by no means a clutch QB.

** (Why would I rather have an experienced QB in the game? Here’s one compelling reason: in the last three seasons, VT defensive coordinator Bud Foster—whose Hokies stand between UNC and a division title—has tormented freshman quarterbacks, going 8-1 when they start or appear in the game, allowing them to complete just 44% of their passes with 4 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. VT has won 6 of those games—all against ACC foes— by at least 18 points.)

Outcome/Predictions:

I think Yates’ chances of keeping the starting QB job depend almost as much on his offensive teammates as they do on himself—or redshirt freshman Bryn Renner. Yates has played some good games in his career, but I think he’s largely a Matt Cassell type of player—he plays to the level of his surrounding teammates and is largely unable to lift up their level of play the way Russell Wilson or Christian Ponder do for their teams.

If the receivers and backs improve their productivity and a (fingers crossed) healthier offensive line plays its best football, Yates will play more confidently, leaving Renner—the QB of the future at UNC— in the box for one more season. But if the running game and receivers continue to falter behind a porous offensive line, LSU will pummel Yates, shaking his confidence and most likely bringing a two-quarterback system to Chapel Hill.

Even if Yates plays a solid game against the Bayou Bengals, expect to see Renner for at least a series or two against the Tigers — just to throw off LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis’ game plan.

I’m predicting that Renner will see progressively more snaps as the season goes on, but he will not win the starting quarterback job outright. Yates will play better football this fall than he did in 2009, largely due to the improvement of the offensive line, and will earn his time on the field. Renner will be a situational threat that forces opposing defensive coordinators to spend extra time preparing for his mobility and, possibly even a separate package of plays that he will run.

In 2007, Virginia Tech QB Sean Glennon got blasted by eventual champion LSU, leading Frank Beamer to remove Tyrod Taylor’s redshirt and insert the five-star freshman QB into the Bayou blowout. Eventually, offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring took advantage of the situation and developed a pretty effective QB rotation—Glennon saw most of the snaps on passing downs while Taylor utilized his speed and elusiveness in running situations or open downs, such as 2nd and 1. The result? An ACC title. I’m not sure that Davis, who openly avoided the 2-QB system in 2008 when TJ Yates came back from injury (thus causing Cam Sexton to transfer), would be in favor of a similar solution, but, judging by his preseason remarks, he’s ready to give Renner a shot to make a big impact this fall.

Projected Statistics:

Yates- 60% completions; 2000 yards; 12 TD 7 INT

Renner—62% completions; 500 yards; 4 TD 2 INT

ACC Coastal QB rankings:

1)      Georgia Tech

2)      Virginia Tech

3)      Miami

4)      UNC

5)      Duke

6)      Virginia

Tags: , , , ,
Posted in Football, Uncategorized | No Comments »

Five Reasons Why This Game Might Be as Good as a Duke-UNC Basketball Game

Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009

1)      Duke’s basketball team hasn’t had a truly great point guard since Jason Williams, but Duke’s football team has a great one this season in QB Thaddeus Lewis, who has 62 career touchdown heaves and a Duke Chapel full of confidence right now. UNC quarterback TJ Yates, who’s taken almost as much flack as former Duke point guard Greg Paulus, is playing his best football of the season after a stunning victory at Virginia Tech. While neither of these players is the caliber of a Ty Lawson or a Jason Williams, both of these gridiron point guards are more experienced and productive than their basketball team counterparts, Nolan Smith of Duke and Larry Drew III of UNC.

2)      I love college basketball as much as the next North Carolinian, but (other than the NCAA tournament) it doesn’t have the same tension as college football games like this one. If UNC loses to Duke in basketball during the regular season, the Tar Heels can still go on to win the conference or the national title. If UNC loses to Duke in football on Saturday, then the Heels’ bowl hopes likely go the way of the toilet bowl. Making matters worse, a win for Duke would make the Blue Devils bowl eligible for the first time since 1994 which would make losing the game a bit like driving three hours out of your way to buy your arch enemy their favorite type of cupcake.  For 100 dollars.

3)      No one likes watching a movie character with too many super powers or no personality flaws (This is why Batman is ten times better than Superman), but fortunately for us, interesting ineptitudes abound in this in-state showdown. Duke’s fatal flaw is its atrocious running game. If you take away the Devils’ backyard beating of neighboring NCCU, Duke is averaging less than two yards per carry, good for dead last in the entire country. Enormous Duke basketball player Brian Zoubek could literally tip over like a felled tree at the line of scrimmage (or “take a charge” as Duke basketball fans would say) and average more yards per carry than Duke’s football team has this season. UNC’s weakness is its shorthanded passing game, which has averaged just 5.65 yards per attempt, good for 112th in the nation. UNC’s outlet passing on the hardwood is better than its downfield passing on the gridiron, but that’s part of why they’re so interesting to watch. How many different types of reverses can UNC Offensive Coordinator John Shoop call to overcome the lack of a Tar Heel passing game? Tune in to find out!

4)       Duke and UNC certainly do not exude football traditions the way that Notre Dame, Michigan, and Ohio State do. However, both teams’ coaches have seen glory days on the gridiron and are hiking their way back up to the top. Chief Blue Devil David Cutcliffe coached Peyton Manning at Tennessee to a 2nd place finish in the Heisman voting while Boss Butch Davis led Miami to a #2 final ranking in 2000. If you watch this game, you can say that you started liking Butch Davis before he hit it big, which would be sort of like seeing Blink 182 in a small venue in their first show of the comeback tour. Or something like that. In that same vein, now’s a great time for fair-weather UNC and Duke fans to appear out of the tobacco fields at just the opportune time. Be the first (more like second…) one on the bandwagon, and watch this game Saturday!

5)      Lastly, the prestigious Carlyle Cup is at stake, and for the first time ever, UNC could keep Duke from earning a single point in the series. The Tar Heels currently lead 3.5 to 0. If they win Saturday, they’ll still have to beat Duke 4 times in basketball, once in volleyball, wrestling, rowing, and fencing— and twice in cross country, golf, lacrosse, swimming,  tennis, track, and baseball—in order to achieve the feat. It seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened, like Duke starting this season 5-3 in football…

Posted in Football | No Comments »

UNC and Duke To Play Meaningful Game….In Football?

Sunday, November 1st, 2009

Yes, we are used to this sort of thing when UNC plays Duke in basketball.  Galaxies are moved. NCAA seedings decided. ACC titles settled. In football all that has even been at stake is a bell and a whole lot of grief saved for UNC by not losing to the laughingstock of the ACC. Despite the rivalry nature of the game, it had become so meaningless, especially where TV was involved that this season it was decided that UNC would play NC State during the final weekend of the season which is normally the weekend rival schools across the country meet on the field.

So irony of ironies that this season, after this eschewing of a tradition that has been in place for years, do we see UNC and Duke set to meet with both teams sporting winning records. On top of that, Duke is still tied in the loss column with Coastal Division leader Georgia Tech. All of the sudden this game will have an impact on how the Coastal Division unfolds with the Tar Heels stepping into the role as spoiler.  Regardless of that, both teams are fighting for bowl eligibility.  UNC needs two wins in their last four to secure a bowl bid. Duke actually needs three more due to the win over NC Central not counting.  Instead of a game devoid of all meaning save what can be mustered in terms of hatred between the two schools, we will get a contest with multiple storylines.

For my money, it is a nice change of pace to get some mileage out of this game besides the normal rivalry business. For UNC it is simple.  Build on the huge win over Virginia Tech by taking this game to hear and knocking Duke off the little pedestal they have manged to crawl up on. At any rate, UNC and Duke playing in a game worth more than the paper the tickets are printed on? Whatever shall we do with ourselves?

Posted in Football | 1 Comment »

The Season Isn’t Over…But It’s Pretty Darn Close

Monday, October 26th, 2009

If UNC fans were not already wandering down the path towards basketball before this past Thursday night then they are likely doing so now.  UNC missed a golden opportunity by losing to Florida St. at home on Thursday night and given the program a shot of relevance with their own fans. Now facing what stands to be a brutal thrashing at the hands of Virginia Tech this Thursday on the road coupled with no discernible answers for poor QB and offensive line play forthcoming, it is easy to declare this season lost.  Especially when you look over in Durham and see Duke is 2-1 in the ACC.  Excuse me but I just threw up in my mouth a little just thinking about that.

Of course, the math says UNC is not done yet.  At least three winnable games remain on the schedule and a sweep of those would put UNC at seven wins and into a bowl somewhere.  While most of us expect UNC will lose at Blacksburg on Thursday and most likely drop a home game against Miami, the Heels still have a chance to beat Duke, Boston College and NC State.  Not a good chance but still a chance since the defense, despite what happened in the 2nd half versus FSU is still pretty good. It also should be noted that Butch Davis has owned Miami for two straight seasons and who knows how Miami will come out seeing that they had their dreams of a BCS Bowl dashed by Clemson on Saturday.

For my part, I am not giving up hope that this team can win those three games and still go bowling.  After all the ACC has all these bowl bids lying around and someone has to fill them, right?

Posted in Football | 1 Comment »

« Older Entries