1)      Duke’s basketball team hasn’t had a truly great point guard since Jason Williams, but Duke’s football team has a great one this season in QB Thaddeus Lewis, who has 62 career touchdown heaves and a Duke Chapel full of confidence right now. UNC quarterback TJ Yates, who’s taken almost as much flack as former Duke point guard Greg Paulus, is playing his best football of the season after a stunning victory at Virginia Tech. While neither of these players is the caliber of a Ty Lawson or a Jason Williams, both of these gridiron point guards are more experienced and productive than their basketball team counterparts, Nolan Smith of Duke and Larry Drew III of UNC.

2)      I love college basketball as much as the next North Carolinian, but (other than the NCAA tournament) it doesn’t have the same tension as college football games like this one. If UNC loses to Duke in basketball during the regular season, the Tar Heels can still go on to win the conference or the national title. If UNC loses to Duke in football on Saturday, then the Heels’ bowl hopes likely go the way of the toilet bowl. Making matters worse, a win for Duke would make the Blue Devils bowl eligible for the first time since 1994 which would make losing the game a bit like driving three hours out of your way to buy your arch enemy their favorite type of cupcake.  For 100 dollars.

3)      No one likes watching a movie character with too many super powers or no personality flaws (This is why Batman is ten times better than Superman), but fortunately for us, interesting ineptitudes abound in this in-state showdown. Duke’s fatal flaw is its atrocious running game. If you take away the Devils’ backyard beating of neighboring NCCU, Duke is averaging less than two yards per carry, good for dead last in the entire country. Enormous Duke basketball player Brian Zoubek could literally tip over like a felled tree at the line of scrimmage (or “take a charge” as Duke basketball fans would say) and average more yards per carry than Duke’s football team has this season. UNC’s weakness is its shorthanded passing game, which has averaged just 5.65 yards per attempt, good for 112^th in the nation. UNC’s outlet passing on the hardwood is better than its downfield passing on the gridiron, but that’s part of why they’re so interesting to watch. How many different types of reverses can UNC Offensive Coordinator John Shoop call to overcome the lack of a Tar Heel passing game? Tune in to find out!

4)       Duke and UNC certainly do not exude football traditions the way that Notre Dame, Michigan, and Ohio State do. However, both teams’ coaches have seen glory days on the gridiron and are hiking their way back up to the top. Chief Blue Devil David Cutcliffe coached Peyton Manning at Tennessee to a 2^nd place finish in the Heisman voting while Boss Butch Davis led Miami to a #2 final ranking in 2000. If you watch this game, you can say that you started liking Butch Davis before he hit it big, which would be sort of like seeing Blink 182 in a small venue in their first show of the comeback tour. Or something like that. In that same vein, now’s a great time for fair-weather UNC and Duke fans to appear out of the tobacco fields at just the opportune time. Be the first (more like second…) one on the bandwagon, and watch this game Saturday!

5)      Lastly, the prestigious Carlyle Cup is at stake, and for the first time ever, UNC could keep Duke from earning a single point in the series. The Tar Heels currently lead 3.5 to 0. If they win Saturday, they’ll still have to beat Duke 4 times in basketball, once in volleyball, wrestling, rowing, and fencing— and twice in cross country, golf, lacrosse, swimming,  tennis, track, and baseball—in order to achieve the feat. It seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened, like Duke starting this season 5-3 in football…

Yes, we are used to this sort of thing when UNC plays Duke in basketball.  Galaxies are moved. NCAA seedings decided. ACC titles settled. In football all that has even been at stake is a bell and a whole lot of grief saved for UNC by not losing to the laughingstock of the ACC. Despite the rivalry nature of the game, it had become so meaningless, especially where TV was involved that this season it was decided that UNC would play NC State during the final weekend of the season which is normally the weekend rival schools across the country meet on the field.

So irony of ironies that this season, after this eschewing of a tradition that has been in place for years, do we see UNC and Duke set to meet with both teams sporting winning records. On top of that, Duke is still tied in the loss column with Coastal Division leader Georgia Tech. All of the sudden this game will have an impact on how the Coastal Division unfolds with the Tar Heels stepping into the role as spoiler.  Regardless of that, both teams are fighting for bowl eligibility.  UNC needs two wins in their last four to secure a bowl bid. Duke actually needs three more due to the win over NC Central not counting.  Instead of a game devoid of all meaning save what can be mustered in terms of hatred between the two schools, we will get a contest with multiple storylines.

For my money, it is a nice change of pace to get some mileage out of this game besides the normal rivalry business. For UNC it is simple.  Build on the huge win over Virginia Tech by taking this game to hear and knocking Duke off the little pedestal they have manged to crawl up on. At any rate, UNC and Duke playing in a game worth more than the paper the tickets are printed on? Whatever shall we do with ourselves?

If UNC fans were not already wandering down the path towards basketball before this past Thursday night then they are likely doing so now.  UNC missed a golden opportunity by losing to Florida St. at home on Thursday night and given the program a shot of relevance with their own fans. Now facing what stands to be a brutal thrashing at the hands of Virginia Tech this Thursday on the road coupled with no discernible answers for poor QB and offensive line play forthcoming, it is easy to declare this season lost.  Especially when you look over in Durham and see Duke is 2-1 in the ACC.  Excuse me but I just threw up in my mouth a little just thinking about that.

Of course, the math says UNC is not done yet.  At least three winnable games remain on the schedule and a sweep of those would put UNC at seven wins and into a bowl somewhere.  While most of us expect UNC will lose at Blacksburg on Thursday and most likely drop a home game against Miami, the Heels still have a chance to beat Duke, Boston College and NC State.  Not a good chance but still a chance since the defense, despite what happened in the 2nd half versus FSU is still pretty good. It also should be noted that Butch Davis has owned Miami for two straight seasons and who knows how Miami will come out seeing that they had their dreams of a BCS Bowl dashed by Clemson on Saturday.

For my part, I am not giving up hope that this team can win those three games and still go bowling.  After all the ACC has all these bowl bids lying around and someone has to fill them, right?

Since Butch Davis’ arrival at UNC before the 2007 season, UNC has lost 16 total games. Out of those games, 11 were decided by a touchdown or less—most by 2-4 points.

So do the rumors that Butch Davis is not a good “game coach” have any basis in reality?

If last night’s any fair measure, then yes.

Let’s just skip to the end of the game. Florida State has scored to take a 30-27 lead, and UNC has the ball on the FSU 44 yard line, 4th down and 5. There are 4 minutes 15 seconds left. The Seminoles’ offense has slap chopped the UNC defense on 4 consecutive possessions, including a 98 yard touchdown pass that scalped the life out of the Kenan Stadium crowd. FSU quarterback Christian Ponder has completed 16 consecutive passes and looks like the reincarnation of Tom Brady. UNC cornerback Jordan Hemby is injured and so our defense does not have its nickel package to work with, meaning that on any upcoming FSU possessions, Tar Heel linebackers will have to cover smaller, much quicker Florida State receivers, something they were unable to do on Florida State’s last joy ride down the field.

If you’re not too busy looking at the road map, it’s pretty clear then that all signs in Chapel Hill pointed towards one conclusion: the offense must score here and now, or they won’t get another chance.

At the time of the decision, the Tar Heels were 2 for 2 on 4th down conversions in the game and 7 for 9 on the season. Additionally, they were playing the 102nd best defense in the country, a defense playing without its best player, Dekoda Watson. If the Tar Heels moved the ball just 15 more yards, then kicker Casey Barth would have a chance to tie the game at 30 with a 46 yard field goal. And that’s assuming that UNC won’t punch it into the end zone (for the win), as they have been able to do on three occasions already this evening.

Remarkably, Butch Davis decided to punt and put the game in the hands of a defenseless defense playing an overwhelming offense. With any luck, or so Butch Davis thought, a good punt would pin FSU back inside their own 10 yard line where a quick stop by UNC would give the Tar Heels great field position, possibly even inside FSU territory, with about 2-3 minutes left in the game. Wait…what?

The offense has traveled to the Florida State 44, and is in a 4th and 5 situation down 3 points. And then, instead of going for it, we punt the ball back to the Seminoles, in hopes of maybe, in the best possible scenario for our outmanned defense, getting the ball back at about the FSU 44 again—only this time with 2 or 3 minutes left on the clock? Of course, Grant Schallock then punted the ball into the end zone, giving the ball to Florida State at the 20 yard line. We surrendered possession of the football in the closing minutes of the game for a 24 yard change in field position, which we quickly gave up. That’s just plain stupid.

There are times when traditional, conservative, “old school” football decision making has its place in the modern game. If it’s 4th and inches from your own 10 yard line, I can understand punting the ball away. If it’s 4th and 20 from the opponent’s 40 yard line, I can understand trying to pooch pin them deep into coffin corner. But what I can’t understand is why you wouldn’t go for it on a totally manageable 4th and 5 at the opponent’s 44 yard line in the situation that we saw last night.

Our passing game played terribly (in other news, Israel and Palestine are mad at each other), but why not challenge them to pick up 5 yards? Or, if you fear an ugly pass attempt by TJ Yates, run another end around or gadget running play! We had already converted a 4th down on a direct snap to Shaun Draughn, and our receivers had combined for 100 yards rushing at this point in the game.

There is no place for conservatism in offensive decision making anymore, not even in the ACC Coastal Division. Georgia Tech has hired an intelligent, risk-taking triple option mastermind to run its quirky offense. Miami hired NFL offensive innovator Mark Whipple to inject some life into a formerly ineffective Hurricanes’ passing game. Virginia hired spread “guru” Gregg Brandon to rework its Hummer of a 2008 offense into something more like a sports car. Even Duke has implemented a cutting edge passing attack and an aggressive offensive style that tries to win, instead of trying to beat the spread like Blue Devils past.

Last night, UNC was handicapped by conservatism in all aspects of the game. We punted on 4th and 5 at the end of the game. We gave Christian Ponder time to ponder (and possibly discover) the meaning of life while making his progressions, thanks to our girl-scout aggressiveness in defensive playcalling. I’ve seen more blitzes in a German phone book. Additionally, TJ Yates (aside from his costly interception in the 3rd quarter) seemed afraid to try some deep shots down the field, even in a hail mary situation at the end of the game.

This football team showed a few good things Thursday night. Shaun Draughn and the receivers ran quite well behind a seemingly improved offensive line, while Grant Schallock and the punt coverage teams continued to help us out on special teams. TJ Yates, as poorly as he played, threw two beautiful deep balls, one of which was called back by a holding penalty and one of which was dropped.

Nonetheless, if this team doesn’t play more aggressively in all phases next week, it will soon be 4-4 and 0-4 in the ACC.

Hello, Bowl America. Goodbye, bowl game.

UNC doesn’t play this week, and frankly, I’m glad. I need a break from the unpredictability of this year’s Tar Heel squad. Since I don’t have a UNC game preview to write, I decided to take a look at the most interesting game this weekend—a showdown between Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech in Atlanta. Enjoy.

GAME TIME

When #4 Virginia Tech rolls into Atlanta on Saturday, they’ll basically be playing for a spot in the ACC Championship game. Having already knocked off Coastal Contender Miami, the Hokies can all but wrap up the division with a win against the pesky Wreck from Georgia Tech.

You (and certainly Frank Beamer) might find that a ridiculous statement to be making at this point in the season—after all,  we’re only 3 games into conference play— but barring a major injury to Tyrod Taylor, it’s all but certain. Virginia Tech closes its romp through ACC mediocrity with trips to miserable Maryland, who has yet to beat VT in ACC play, and Virginia, who has lost to Virginia Tech in 9 of the last 10 seasons.  Sandwiched in between, they’ll host a weaponless UNC team that hasn’t defeated Virginia Tech since 1998 on a Thursday Night Home game, (aka the worst time for a visiting team to come to Blacksburg) and NC State, who hasn’t beaten VT since 2004 and appears outmanned after a 21 point home loss to Duke.

You have to figure that the Hokies will be favored by at least 10 points in each of those showdowns—only 3 of which they will have to win to clinch the Coastal Division Title if they can knock off Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Which brings us back to this weekend…

Georgia Tech

When Georgia Tech’s option offense chose the lackluster option in Coral Gables a few weeks ago, I thought that maybe the system had peaked, like Barry Bonds jersey sales or Al Groh’s salary. In the embarrassing 34-17 loss to the Canes, it seemed that the only option for option ringleader and QB Josh Nesbitt was which offensive player he wanted to get pounded for a loss: either he could get blasted himself, or he could pitch to Roddy Jones to get blasted. Offensively, the team looked confused and predictable. I could have sworn that I saw Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl vultures circling the Georgia Tech huddles in the fourth quarter, dreaming of a Georgia Tech-Idaho matchup on a blue field this December. Can you say ESPN the Ocho?

Not so fast my friends!

Coach Paul Johnson must have sprayed some pheromones in the locker room the next day though, because after that, these Jackets got angry. The next week, they steamrolled #22 UNC 24-7. Then, they put up 42 and 49 points in shootout victories over Mississippi State and Florida State, improving their record to 4-1 and buzzing themselves right to the center of the ACC title discussion.

After seeing these games, I remembered why I so staunchly defended Georgia Tech’s offense in my preseason preview (http://tarheeltds.wordpress.com/2009/07/10/know-your-enemies-2-coastal-georgia-tech-preview/). These guys are unbelievably good on the offensive side of the ball. Still…

Death by a thousand stings

Watching Georgia Tech play can be agonizing. It’s like watching death by Chinese water torture as they drip and drop and drip and drop down the field on 8 and 9 minute touchdown drives*. If the Jackets are controlling the game on offense—as they often do—it’s like they’ve put Lunesta in the opponents’ Gatorade. Defensive players just lose energy, hope, and focus, counting not sheep but Georgia Tech first downs as they doze off to a big loss.

*(Note: that’s not to say that they don’t also beat you with the big play—they have had plays of 53, 56, 56, 60, 65, 69, 73 74, and 82 yards this season. Damn.)

Just because we hate their offense though, doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t respect it.

My roommate’s girlfriend asked me during UNC’s loss to Georgia Tech something to the effect of: “isn’t it cheap or unfair that they run this weird/gimmicky offense?” It’s easy to think that way, especially when you’ve been on the itchy, swollen end of the stinger, but I don’t think that’s the right way to look at what Paul Johnson has achieved at Georgia Tech.

Her comment reminded me of something from my junior tennis background. In junior tennis, players who simply bunt the ball back into play without much pace or risk are known as “pushers.” Their serves are so slow that their opponents cannot help from trying to smash them—and they end up blasting the ball out of bounds. Game, set, match: Pusher.

Being called a pusher is like being called a pansy or a wuss in that it’s derogatory and disrespectful. But—and this totally relates to Georgia Tech’s offense—it’s a claim you can make only if you’ve overcome that person. You can only call someone a pusher if you beat them, which at least for this season, silences all of the complaints from Tar Heel nation about Paul Johnson’s much more sophisticated, “pusher” offensive scheme.

Why you should watch this game…

As a UNC fan, you should care about this game for two reasons. First, if Virginia Tech wins, that thread of UNC- ACC championship hope hanging in the corner of your brain gets snipped. If Virginia Tech wins, then UNC would have to win out in ACC play—which would include a victory in Blacksburg—AND Virginia Tech would also have to lose to UVa, NC State, or Maryland. (Also—Georgia Tech would still have to lose again to finish 5-3 in the ACC since they hold the ACC tiebreaker over us).

Secondly, this game is  the ultimate clash of football geniuses. Turkey vs. Yellow Jacket, aside from sounding like a Thanksgiving SciFi Channel Movie Special, includes one of the greatest coordinator matchups in all of college football this season.

In one corner, there’s Bud Foster—the VT defensive coordinator who has guided and schemed his Hokie defenses into the top 6 nationally in 7 out of the last 10 seasons. He’s famous for his fiery temperament on the sideline (In 2001, he broke a clipboard on the sideline after the Hokies gave up a touchdown in the 4^th quarter. At the time, Virginia Tech was up 31-0) and his crafty defensive adjustments and schemes which leave quarterbacks more confused than Sean Glennon against a big blitz.

Last year, Foster’s defense surrendered 378 yards (104 more yards than the Hokies gave up on average last year) to Georgia Tech in a 20-17 victory in Blacksburg.

They basically were able to escape the game with a win because of 3 Yellow Jacket turnovers and a strategic move that has become the blueprint for defeating Georgia Tech: the elimination of fullback Jonathan Dwyer. Virginia Tech’s defensive tackles keyed on the dive play—in other words, the first option of the triple option—and forced QB Josh Nesbitt to hurt them on the perimeter. If your defensive tackles have the ability to take that option away, you can limit Georgia Tech to a double option, which is slightly easier to defend. Dwyer, who went on to win ACC Player of the Year Honors, finished the game with just 21 yards on 10 carries, but Nesbitt rushed for 151 yards on 28 carries.

Interestingly, Foster’s defense did not allow stud wide receiver Demaryius Thomas to catch a pass. However, they did allow Georgia Tech’s second fullback—powerful Lucas Cox—to rush for 63 yards on just 5 carries. Knowing Paul Johnson’s tendency to keep pounding away at something until the defense stops it, I’d expect some more Cox carries this year as well. Which leads me to Paul Johnson again…

Paul Johnson might be the best offensive mind in all of college football. He’s almost always received criticism for his offensive style, but his offense has always worked. He turned Hawaii into a power running team, and took Navy to bowl games every year. Before that, he won multiple FCS national championships with Georgia Southern. Last week, he diced up a super-talented Florida State defense for 400 rushing yards running entirely out of the same flexbone trips formation. You can bet your bottom dollar he’ll find something to attack in this Virginia Tech defense as well.

Johnson vs. Foster is like Ali and Frazier, fought on the sidelines. You’d be crazy to miss out on watching these two duke it out, this year and in the years to come.

JUST SAYING

If you’re the owner of the hapless Cleveland Browns, tell me why you wouldn’t want to hire Paul Johnson and try to translate this genius triple option offense to the NFL. All you’d have to do is trade for Pat White, Felix Jones, and Owen Schmitt. Then you pull some former Nebraska and Georgia Tech offensive linemen out of the woodwork and plug them right into the system. Voila.

Go ahead. Echo the sentiments of every washed up ESPN analyst. The option will never work in the NFL. The defensive players are too big and too fast and too strong and too mean…

All of the boring NFL offensive coordinators told us that the Wildcat was just a trend, and look what’s happened to that prediction…

It really wouldn’t take much for the Heels to beat most of the teams on their schedule.

I’m serious.

With the offense looking to be become the lowest ranked offense in the country how can I possibly say that? Well, I just look at how good our defense is playing. And if the offense can just muster a few more first downs, maybe 1-2 more yards on a running play then they can increase their time of possession and give the defense a rest.

I believe the UNC defense is playing great, could be playing even better, and should hold most teams below 14 points. And, if they were more rested, would get 1 to 2 turnovers per game.

All it takes is for the offense to get 3 yards on a run. Not 1.7 yards. Move the chains. Throw short passes for 3-5 yards. Move the chains. Run the “Wildcat” and get 4 yards. Move the chains and keep possession.

UNC has lost time of possession the last 2 games.

Only getting about 9 1st downs the whole game.

That’s the big problem. Just a few more yards would solve that and tip the balance in UNC’s favor.

UNC fans should have no illusion that suddenly the offense will figure out how to score 3 or 4 touchdowns per game. I don’t think that is going to happen. And probably shouldn’t. This team needs to learn to grind it out, keep the ball, score a little bit, and let the defense win the game.

As painful as it is some years to watch Beamer Ball up at Va Tech, that philosophy is what the Tar Heels should be adopting this season. Commit to the run. Throw short passes. Let the defense give you good field position. Grind it out. Control the game. Punish the other team.

Just a few yards here and there is all it would take to save the season.

MrTarHeel
http://www.mrtarheel.com

Georgia Southern Preview

Head Coach: Chris Hatcher (92-23 overall; 16-11 at Georgia Southern)

Famous Alumni:  Daniel Cathy (President Chick-Fila)

Fun Facts:

1)      Ga. Southern has had winning seasons in 25 of the last 27 years.

2)      They have won 6 FCS national titles during that span—more than any other program.

3)      The Eagles have averaged 27.5 points in Hatcher’s two games against FBS teams, including a bout against #1 Georgia last fall.

4)      But the Eagles have surrendered 43.5 points per outing in those two games.

5)      In Hatcher’s 27 games at GS, 18 have been decided by 8 points or less ; In Butch Davis’ 30 games at UNC, 18 have been decided by 8 points or less

6)      GS is 13-4 over the last 3 seasons when scoring first; Carolina has allowed its opponent to score first in the last 4 games

Quotable: “There’s no doubt about it. We’re outmanned at every position. Our goal this week: get better at what we do.” —Georgia Southern Coach Chris Hatcher

Georgia Southern Offense:

87 rushing yards/game (97^th in nation); 215 passing yards/game(43^rd in nation) = 302 total yards per game(73^rd in nation)

Coach Randy Gillepsie is at a crossroads with this young offense. In 2007, Georgia Southern’s offense centered around a mobile quarterback (Jayson Foster—the Walter Payton Award Winner in 2007) and a power running game. In 2008, QB Antonio Henton rushed for nearly twice as many yards as any running back on the team.

This season, however, their identity has changed. QB Lee Chapple is not a running threat, and frankly, neither are the Eagles’ running backs. Fortunately for Offensive Coordinator Randy Gillepsie, the Eagles do feature a lot of talent at the wide receiver position, a position coached by former Florida State star (and 1999 National Champion) Ron Dugans. But will that young talent be the wind beneath their wings? I think not.

Strategically, this unit is a far cry from the Paul Johnson triple option offenses of Georgia Southern’s storied past. Gillepsie employs a no-huddle, short passing attack. In theory, it should be an attack that’s equally dangerous on the ground and in the air. On the field, it’s an offense that’s struggled to do either effectively.

Quarterback:

6’1 200 lb SOPH QB Lee Chapple (67.8% completion; 991 yards, 6 TD, 6 INT; 117.5 rating)

Chapple has a very high completion percentage, but he’s a very low risk, low reward kind of quarterback who relies heavily on short routes and dump offs to the backs. In his career, he’s completed only 2 passes over 40 yards in 302 career attempts. Unlike the two Georgia Southern QBs before him, he’s not mobile. He’s taken 14 sacks in the Eagles’ two losses this season.

MATCHUP:

Chapple will have all sorts of problems with this UNC defense. He’s not mobile, he’s turnover prone (6 INT in 5 games), and he can’t hurt a defense downfield. If Chapple gets hurt, his backup Russell DeMasi will take his first career snaps against the Heels.

Running back

5’8 190 lb SOPH RB Adam Urbano (282 rush yards, 5.1 ypc, 2 TD; 24 catches 192 yards)

Urbano is a solid player who ended up at Georgia Southern because of concerns about his size and speed coming out of high school (where he scored 70 career TDs by the way). He’s a small, shifty runner who’s been more of a third down, “scat” back in his career than anything else. He’s got great hands (24 catches) but he’s never seen more than 17 carries in a game.

5’9 172 lb FR RB Darreion Robinson (213 yards, 4.8 ypc, TD; 20 catches for 42 yards!)

Georgia Southern does not have the luxury of a Ryan Houston type, power backup. Robinson is built just like Urbano. He has caught a lot of passes (20), but he hasn’t done much with them (42 yards), indicating his role as the safety valve in the passing game—and also his lack of explosiveness.

MATCHUP:

No more, Mister Nice Guy! These young Eagle tailbacks will be feeling the heat all day. Unlike the Eagles in Rescuers Down Under, they will not be saved against a mean, head-hunting defense poaching for prey.

Wide Receiver

6’1 200 lb FR WR Jamere Valentine (265 yards, 10 ypc, 4 TD)

6’3 184 lb FR WR Mitchell Williford (162 yards, 10 ypc, 0 TD)

6’1 170 lb FR WR Patrick Barker (121 yards, 9 ypc, TD)

MATCHUP:

These guys have great size and pretty decent talent. All three made first team all-state at WR in high school. Unfortunately, that was last year. Valentine, Williford, and Barker are all freshmen so they have a combined 15 starts between them. No one they’ve seen so far will prepare them for 2^nd team all-ACC CB Kendric Burney and CB Charles Brown.

Offensive Line:

6’3 305 lb SR OL Cole Fountain (2^nd team all-SoCon Preseason; 17 career starts)

6’1 280 lb SR OG Jon Loving (15 career starts)

6’0 255 lb FR C Blake DeBartola (1 career start)

6’5 325 lb SO OG Jared Flowers (5 career starts)

6’2 258 lb SO OT Brandavious Mann (1 career start)

MATCHUP:

This is a matchup nightmare for the Eagles. At Left Tackle, Brandavious Mann has just one career start. He will be facing UNC DE Robert Quinn (8^th in the nation with 9.5 TFL)—who outweighs him by 15 pounds and outruns him by at least .3 seconds in the 40. At Center, DeBartola also has just one career start—it’s hard to imagine him being able to block UNC DTs Austin (300 lb), Thomas (330 lb) at just 255 lb. Making matters worse, Georgia Southern hasn’t been able to run on anyone this year—and they’ve allowed 14 sacks in their two losses. This looks like a major mismatch in favor of the Tar Heels.

Defense (coached by Ashley Anders)

142 rush yard allowed/game (61^st in nation), 182 pass yards allowed/game (55^th in nation)= 326 total yards allowed/game (50^th in nation)

Ashley Anders’ Eagle Defense doesn’t have great numbers this year, but they could pose some problems for UNC’s offense. (In other news, Monacan high school’s defense could pose problems for UNC’s offense). His team runs a very unusual 3-3-5 stack defense, a defense that the Tar Heels have seen just once in the last 3 seasons—in a loss to West Virginia. This defense, like most FCS defenses, is short on size, but you know what they say: it’s not the size of the Eagle in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the Eagle. Or something like that.

Georgia Southern’s defense certainly takes the fight to opposing offenses. Thanks to the return of 4 players who made the All-Southern Conference freshman team last fall and a blitz heavy scheme, this unit ranks in the top 26 in the nation in tackles for loss and sacks. If these guys play well, that could mean a lot of 2^nd and 3^rd and longs for UNC.

Defensive Line

6’2 250 lb SR DE Harland Bower

6’0 272 lb SR NT Markeith Wylie

6’2 300 lb FR DT Brent Russell

Linebackers

5’11 200 lb SO Tarvaris Williams

6’0 217 lb SO Dion DuBose ( Preseason 2^nd team all Southern Conference)

6’0 210 lb SR Terrione Benefield

Secondary

6’0 190 lb FR ROVER Darius Eubanks

6’1 175 lb SO FS Derek Heyden

5’9 175 lb SO BANDIT KR Snipes

5’9 175 lb SO CB LaRon Scott

6’0 170 lb SR CB Darrell Pasco

Special Teams

PK- Adrian Mora (8 of 10 FG; hits from 46, 48, 50; 1^st team all Southern Conference)

P- Charlie Edwards

PR- Urbano or Valentine

KR- Pasco or Wiggins

MATCHUP:

Mora is an exceptional kicker who could decide the game if it gets close. Their returners are mediocre, and almost certainly worse than UNC’s returners. I’d give the edge here to UNC.

Georgia Southern Game Plan:

Notice how I write basically the same opponent game plan in here every week. Why? The general concept—stop the Heels running game—will be a constant this fall in Chapel Hill.

Georgia Southern needs to show as many different looks as possible out of their strange, 3-3-5 alignment. (Among major conference teams, West Virginia is the only other 3-3-5 team that I can think of). It will confuse an already confused offensive line, and with any luck, hold UNC under 100 yards rushing.

If I get the ball first, I play it safe with lots of screens and NOTHING that could result in a turnover. After I see how my defense matches up against a struggling UNC offense, I make the next move. If UNC is not moving the ball, I try to take a deep shot downfield early—it won’t be expected and it could put the Eagles in front early. If that doesn’t work, I run a conservative, time-milking UVa style game plan with nothing fancy and nothing that could result in a turnover. I want to make this UNC offense sustain a drive down the field in order to win!

North Carolina Game Plan:

Theoretically, we should be able to go out there with our bigger offensive linemen and just run the ball right at them, but practically, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Georgia Southern will almost certainly stack the box at the beginning of the game to take away the run, and rather than scurrying right into their talons like blind mice with predictable running plays, I think we should throw on first downs! We have talent at wide receiver and a solid, if inconsistent, quarterback. Also, I’d probably give Ryan Houston some more carries this game because he has at least 30 pounds on every one of Georgia Southern’s linebackers and almost 70 pounds on all of their defensive backs.

Defensively, I don’t think that I try anything too fancy. Georgia Southern doesn’t have the playmakers to threaten us downfield or the hosses up front to open up the running game. I’d like to see some more blitzes than usual to stymie the conservative, game-shortening offensive plan that Georgia Southern will likely employ.

Score Prediction:

Interestingly, I think both teams feel great about the timing of this game on Saturday.

Georgia Southern must feel lucky because the Tar Heels seem to be playing their worst football of the season, due to a crippling blend of inexperience and injuries. There’s a chance that UNC LT Kyle Jolly won’t be able to go, and that’d be a huge plus for the Eagles’ chances. Additionally, the Eagles’ strange 3-3-5 defensive alignment will be the 3^rd defensive set that the Tar Heels have faced in the last 3 weeks, which could pose additional problems for the QB bouncers up front.

On the other hand, UNC must feel relieved to be playing an FCS opponent this week. If the Heels had to play another ACC team this week with a decimated lineup, they’d be staring down an 0-3 conference record and a free trip to nowhere this bowl season. This game will give the Heels a great chance to simplify the offense and gain some confidence heading into the much needed bye week next week.

Georgia Southern’s offense will be completely ineffective in this game. UNC’s offense will  only be slightly better.

North Carolina 17 Georgia Southern 3

In one of my last posts here on the Raycom site I talked about the necessity of a change in the coaching staff. Just to be clear, I am definitely not looking for a change at the top. I believe that head coach Butch Davis is the right man for the job and should not be anywhere close to the “hot seat”. The change I was referring to is the offensive coordinator job, there I would like to see a change. After having talked to several people that bleed carolina blue like me, if not more, about this same subject I have finally come up with who I would like to see at that position. I picked a single person and probably not the one most people would think of, but then again this is the fun, we all have our own thoughts. My choice would be, from the University of Wisconsin, Paul Chryst.

Why this choice? Chryst has a pretty interesting background, having coached in the NCAA, the NFL and the CFL. With the highlight of it all maybe being the 2003-04 season, where at Oregon State he had the 10th best offense, with a 4,000 yard passer, a 1,500 rusher and two 1,000 yard receivers. There is no denying that Wisconsin’s OC can get the job done on the ground, with last year’s 211.2 yards per game being the best the Badgers had since 1999. That coming after two season of back to back 1,000+ yard rushing from P.J. Hill. Proven as an offensive coordinator, having worked at the next level, having sent players to the NFL, Chryst would be good for both the program and to lure in the recruits to Chapel Hill.

I’d like to see North Carolina go back to the days where having a 1,000 yard back was the norm. Something that has not happened in twelve years at Chapel Hill, and will not happen again this season. I want to have the opponents calling North Carolina “Tailback U” because of what the Heels do on offense. This coordinator has been able to get a good running game going at Wisconsin, and if he could duplicate his success at UNC he would put the football program in the fast lane to being one of the top teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Call me old fashioned but I still believe that if you can run the ball well and stop the opponent’s running game you will win a lot more games than you will lose. We know we have the talent to stop the run, with Chryst as the OC we could have the running game as well. Of course that also means that we need to bring in good recruits on the offensive line, but that is something that is needed whether you want to throw or run the ball.

In a college game where the big names are becoming the men behind center I like to think that the Heisman trophy is still representing a running back going in for six points. With all the defenses trying to get quicker on the corner and speedy at the line backers to stop the pass happy offenses, having to shift gears in order to face a tough running game would put many defensive coordinators in a tough spot and hopefully having sleepless nights. Again, I am not asking that UNC become a run only team, I am saying that with Chryst it could become a good run first team that would wear down the defenses, would make them a lot more vulnerable to play action and would control both the ball and the tempo of the game. I know it’s just a post, a dream of mine, but imagine being the coach of the opposing team, watching the Tar Heels march down the field, eating up minutes and yards a bit at a time and after they score having to face a defense like UNC has right now.

I have said my piece, now, as the readers of this site, say yours and tell me in the comment section who you would like to see as the next OC. I will be looking forward to reading all the suggestions!

I know that for many fans North Carolina not doing too well is because of the offensive coordinator or the quarterback or the offensive line. That could all be true, but in this small post I am going to give you something to ponder that maybe few are thinking about. A stat I doubt most anyone, from the passerby fan to the analyst/expert, would have thought would happen in the 2009 season.

After five games last season the Carolina D was at plus six in turnovers, having lost the TO battle only once, in the game against Virginia Tech, where T.J. Yates went down and Mike Paulus threw two interceptions stepping into the game. Fast forward to this season and the UNC defensive unit is at minus six in turnovers, that is a huge swing in my opinion, especially when last year’s offense was a lot better. In the last two games the UNC defense has created exactly zero turnovers, not what you need from this unit when the offense is struggling. I am not using the defense as an excuse for the weak showing of the offense, but what T.J. Yates and company could use is a short field to punch in a score and get them going. Last year that happened a lot more often that it has this season.

We all believed that the defense was going to be what would push North Carolina to victory. Well, being minus six in turnovers is not going to push much, especially when the offense is not helping on the other side of the ball. Maybe this team would still be 3 and 2, but especially against Virginia, had the defense been able to get the Cavaliers to cough up the ball a couple of times it might just have been the way to win the game. If we check the game stats, the drive that put the game out of reach for UVa began with about 10 minutes left in the game, meaning that the UNC defense had 50 minutes and 10 drives to find a way to get a turnover.

In other words with a team that could not muster more than 174 yards (39 on the ground) a touchdown would have put them in the lead after the opponent has had the ball ten times. For a defense many believed could be as good as you will see in the conference this should have been a fighting call to get a turnover. I keep hearing/reading the offense cannot get a first down or the running backs cannot get a good run, or whatever else. Let’s say it the way it is, the defense cannot get a turnover to help its offense.

Am I saying that a turnover against Virginia would have won the game for North Carolina? No, but what I am telling you is that the UNC defense needs to play a lot more like last year if they hope to be what people thought they were.

That is UNC’s present rank in total offense among 120 FBS schools.  Were it not for ECU and The Citadel, UNC would be dead last in total offense. It is so bad I am not sure where to begin trying to figure out if it can be fixed.  The Tar Heel fan base went into full blown panic mode shortly after the Heels fell to a bad UVa team.  Following the standard form for this type of meltdown, the message boards in particular asked for John Shoop to be terminated as soon as HR could process the paperwork, T.J. Yates to be benched in favor of two guys who probably stand to be worse and Ryan Houston to be the starter.

Of those demands, only Houston moving into Shaun Draughn’s slot has any real chance of happening in this reality.  Even then I would not bet money you might need to pay bills on it.  Butch Davis made it clear following the debacle in Atlanta that he loathed to make personnel changes since UNC was already putting their best players on the field.  Davis also did not think shifting personnel around in a nearly blind effort to grasp some random solution would work either. I tend to agree with these two lines of thought especially given the youth UNC has a certain positions along with an offensive line that could not block some high schools or so it seems.

The thing is, Davis has sort of backed himself and his staff into a position to bear full blame for what has happened.  If, as he asserts, the best players are out there then how said players get utilized means the coaches are responsible for the this epic fail in the point scoring department.  Eyes are squarely on John Shoop who has been accused of constant predictability in play calling.  I am not a major Xs and Os guy in football so I have to take the word of others on this.  The general feeling is the offense surprises no one and since UNC lacks playmakers who can rock someone’s world, the only hope you have is running plays that stand to confuse the opposing defense.  UNC is not doing that and it shows in how many three and outs they rack up in a game.

Ultimately we are talking about both a player performance and coaching issues which probably means some combination of changes in both areas stands to fix it, assuming it can be fixed.  The offensive line is what it is at this juncture and I do not have high hopes of it getting better.  Given the line issues, giving the ball the Houston more might help since he is less dependent on great blocking than Draughn. I think sticking with Yates will be the proper course given the options behind him. You can file this under the Roy Williams  “I see my team in practice and you don’t so I know who should start” proviso and trust Butch Davis when he says Yates is the best choice.  Plus, the OL is already a mess and I am not sure you want to throw a new QB out there with a bad OL that would have to add “adjusting to a new QB” to the list of things they have to worry about.

The crux of the issue is UNC has neither a running game or passing attack which makes if difficult to do anything.  If you can get one or the other going it tends to open opportunities.  For example, UNC’s running game last season was mostly owed to the fact opposing defense had to worry about two NFL caliber WRs in Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate.  Yes, the OL was better last year but if you can stretch the field with the passing game, it most certainly puts the defense at a disadvantage in covering the run.  On the flip side a strong running game will open some shots downfield not to mention chew tons of clock.  Because UNC does not have a strength just a whole bunch of suck wrapped in a ball, we are talking about creating something out of nothing.  That is not a good position to start from and puts enormous pressure on the coaches to do just that.