Heading into Tuesday night’s game at NC State, the stakes are extremely high for Roy’s Boys.
A loss in Raleigh could not only sap the team’s draining confidence, but also push the Tar Heels one step further down the postseason plank. For the first time in the Roy Williams era at UNC, the Tar Heels might be playing their postseason hoops on ESPN the Ocho in the NIT, aka the Not Invited Teams tournament or the Noobs’ Invitational Tournament.
In light of this impending disaster, I thought it would be good to take a look at both the Tar Heels’ NCAA resumé and their remaining schedule.
CURRENT RESUMÉ
RPI Ranking: #73
“Big” RPI Wins: #14 Michigan State, #46 Ohio State, #70 Virginia Tech, #65 Marshall, #71 Nevada
Road Wins: Zilch. Literally. Zero.
Outlook:
UNC is ranked 15 spots behind two different Ivy League Schools (Cornell and Harvard), as well as William and Mary, Northeastern, and Northwestern. In other directional college news, the Heels have played just barely well enough to outrank Western Carolina in the RPI; Western Carolina checks in at #74 in the rankings.
The selection committee loves neutral/road wins, and the Tar Heels have only one, a victory in Madison Square Garden over Ohio State. UNC must win at least a few true road games in order to make the tournament. For this young team, this could be quite a challenge.
Remaining Schedule:
GottaWannaNeedaGettaHavtaWin Games (unofficially sponsored by Bojangles) in bold
@ NC State- The Pack always play us tough. Without Ed Davis, who scores inside? L
Virginia- Virginia might be 3-1 in the ACC, but they’re still Virginia. In Chapel Hill, the Heels can’t let this one slip away. W
@ VT- Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg will be filled with angry Hokie fans trying to scream their team from its NIT destiny. W
@ MD- Maryland’s 1-2-1-1 full court pressure will terrorize our young guards. L
#8 Duke- This would be an enormous win for the Heels’ NCAA chances. L
NCSU- This game is a true, win-win situation. If the Heels win, they’ll improve their NCAA chances. If they lose, Sidney Lowe gets a contract extension! W
@ #22 GT- UNC dominated the Jackets in the 2nd half last time. Two halves like that and this one’s in the bag for UNC. L
@ BC- Boston College is a good matchup for Carolina. W
FSU- The ‘Noles hoopsters play better defense than their football counterparts. I have visions of a turnover fest for the Tar Heel backcourt. W
@ Wake- If Ish Smith and the Deacs go cold from outside, UNC prevails. W
Miami- Miami trailed by 35 points to VT…in the first half…W
@ #8 Duke- I’d pay hundreds to watch Jon Scheyer and Brian Zoubek leave Duke without a single home win vs. UNC. I wouldn’t bet hundreds on it, though. L
Predicted Outcome:
19-12 (8-8 in the ACC); 8 seed in the NCAA tournament
Tags: potw
Great title to article! NITcanreallyhappen. It should happen. Your prediction of unc’s regular season record makes sense. However, at 8-8(ACC) and 19-12 it would be a travesty for unc to get an NCAA bid when much better VT teams have been spurned. Frost
I think a 19-12 (8-8 ACC) UNC team would have a pretty good argument for the NCAA tournament. Here’s why:
We do have two good wins (#5 Michigan State and #21 Ohio State). If we got to 8-8, we’d probably also have wins over some good ACC teams. With a win over #7 Duke and an 8-8 record, we’d be in the tournament for sure.
Even if we finish 8-8 in ACC play without another “signature” win, you have to think we will still make the tournament. The committee has to reward teams who have the balls to play a tough non-conference schedule. When you guys (VT) were playing Bowling Green and Idaho Southern, we were playing #4 Syracuse, #1 Kentucky, #5 Michigan State, and #6 Texas.
Sports Illustrated! ESPN Sports! Have you see the way this Tarheel kid writes? Amazing. He knows everything about sports. A real walking encyclopedia. Great sense of humor, too. Sign the man up!