Meineke Car Care Bowl Preview: #17 Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina

All-Time Series: UNC leads 4-2 (last meeting: UNC won 20-17 in 2000)

Pittsburgh Head Coach: Dave Wannstedt (34-25 in 5 seasons at Pitt; 0-1 in bowls)

Famous Pitt Alumni: Gene Kelly (Academy Award Winner), Senator Orrin Hatch (R- Utah)

Fun Facts:

1)      Pitt went 4-2 against bowl teams with an average score of 29 to 22; North Carolina went 5-2 against bowl teams, with an average score of 23 to 20. Expect a close one in Charlotte…(see #4)

2)      Pitt has 10 senior starters; UNC has 13 TOTAL seniors on the roster, only 5 of whom start. The experience factor is definitely on Pitt’s side, which might be a slight advantage for Pitt in a close game.

3)      Pitt Coach Dave Wannstedt is 10-13 all time in games decided by 8 points or less; Butch Davis is 8-12 in such games since coming to Chapel Hill. In Pitt’s last two close games, they lost in Morgantown to WVU and blew a 21 point lead at home vs. Cincinnati.

4)      54% of UNC’s games in the Butch Davis era have been decided by 8 points or less. 39% of Pitt’s games under Wannstedt have been decided by 8 or less.

5)      Pitt had a whopping 10 first team all-Big East selections this year, including the Offensive Player of the Year (Lewis), the Rookie of the Year (Lewis), and the Co-Defensive Players of the Year (Romeus and Williams). Looking at the Panthers’ accolades, it’s hard to see how they lost to lowly NC State.

6)      While he didn’t win Big East Coach of the Year, Wannstedt’s mustache was rated as the 7^th greatest in NFL history in an article on Yahoo Sports.

7)      Wannstedt and Davis both worked on the Cowboys’ defensive staff under Jimmy Johnson in the early 90’s taking home a trio of Super Bowls in that span. Both coaches also had unsuccessful stints as head coaches in the NFL.

8)      The University of Pittsburgh’s “Cathedral of Learning” is the tallest educational building in the Western Hemisphere, standing 535 feet high.

Pittsburgh Offense:

185 rushing (29^th) + 215 passing (62^nd) = 400 total yards (45^th)

I haven’t watched a lot of Panther football this year, but I do know this: Pittsburgh’s offense is about power and efficiency. In many ways, they remind me of Alabama’s offense. They use a lot of two tight end sets, and their primary goal is to establish the running game.

Quarterback:

6’3 215 lb SR QB Bill Stull (2470 passing yards, 62.5% completions, 21 TD 8 INT; QB rating of 152.4; 1^st team All-Big East

Kinda like… Greg McElroy, Alabama

Bill Stull has been around since the beginning of the Wannstedt era, and he’s improved a lot in that time. In his first season as a starter in 2008, Stull didn’t know how to stick shift (get 1^st downs) this Panther offense, leading to a lot of 3 and outs, Stull stall-outs, and a Stull breakdown in the Sun Bowl (7 of 24 for 52 yards, INT, 3 sacks). This year, he’s thrown the ball well, transforming this Panther offense into a more balanced and effective unit. Stull has a good arm and throws a nice deep ball, but he’s not a dangerous runner or a particularly talented playmaker. After throwing 11 TD and 1 INT in his first five games, Stull slowed down at the end of the season, throwing a mediocre 10 TD and 7 INT in his final 7 games.

MATCHUP:

Stull will play as well as his offensive line does. If he’s under pressure, I expect Stull to crumble. He has not faced a defense anywhere near as good as this Tar Heel stop unit. If the offensive line holds up, he should have a solid, but unspectacular afternoon.

Running Backs

5’8 195 lb FR RB Dion Lewis (1640 rush yards, 5.5 yards per carry, 16 TD; 190 receiving yards; 1^st team All-Big East)

Kinda like… Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech

Simply put, Lewis is a beast. He’s shifty, powerful, and blessed with exceptional vision. He’s rushed for at least 110 yards in 9 out of 12 games, including an unheard of 47 carry performance against Cincinnati.

MATCHUP:

Lewis is a dynamic talent. Carolina has the front 7 to limit Lewis, but they’ll have to tackle well to slow him down. I expect Lewis to finish with 100 yards or so, on 25-30 carries.

5’9 185 lb FR RB Ray Graham (349 yards, 5.9 yards per carry, 4 TD)

6’2 260 lb SO FB Henry Hynoski (24 carries for 107 yards, TD)

Wide Receivers:

6’5 225 lb SO WR Jonathan Baldwin (54 catches for 1,080 yards, 10 TD; 20 yards per catch; 1^st team All-Big East)

Kinda like… Greg Little, UNC

6’3 205 lb SR WR Oderick Turner (21 catches for 227 yards, TD; 10.8 yards per catch)

*Other wide receivers include 6’5 220 lb WR Mike Shanahan and 6’1 205 lb Cedric McGee

Tight End:

6’2 230 lb SR TE Dorin Dickerson (45 catches for 508 yards, 10 TD; 11.3 yards per catch; 1^st team All-Big East

*Co-starter is 6’4 265 lb SR Nate Byham, who amazingly, made 2^nd team All-Big East at tight end, despite being on the same team as the 1^st team selection and

MATCHUP:

Dickerson, who benches 400+ pounds, and Byham will be responsible for sealing the edge on running plays and leading Lewis to the perimeter. For the first time all season, I think that Byham and Dickerson will be facing NFL size defensive ends in Robert Quinn (6’5 260 lb) and EJ Wilson (6’3 280 lb).

Offensive Line:

6’4 305 lb JR OT Jason Pinkston (27 starts; 1^st team All-Big East)

6’6 300 lb SO OT Lucas Nix (12 starts)

6’5 290 lb SR OG Joe Thomas (39 starts)

6’3 285 lb SR OG John Malecki (25 starts; 1^st team All Big East)

6’2 285 lb SR C Robb Houser (19 starts)

MATCHUP:

This offensive line ranks 16^th in the nation in sacks allowed, giving up just over 1 sack per game. I expect them to give up a couple sacks to this talented Tar Heel front four, but I still think they will have a strong afternoon against Carolina.

Defensive Preview:

108 rushing allowed (16^th) + 216 passing (56^th) = 324 total yards allowed/game (26^th)

1^st in the nation in sacks (3.75); 12^th in TFL (7.5)

I’ll make this short and (bitter)sweet. This defense is a very, very bad matchup for North Carolina.

Defensive Line:

6’4 260 lb JR DE Jaabal Sheard (39 tackles, 9 TFL, 4 sacks)

6’6 270 lb JR DE Greg Romeus (40 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 8 sacks; 1^st team All-Big East)

6’2 240 lb SO DE Brandon Lindsey (18 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 4 sacks)

6’3 285 lb SR DT Gus Mustakas (36 tackles, 9 TFL, 4.5 sacks; 2^nd team All-Big East)

6’1 280 lb SR DT Mick Williams (39 tackles, 15 TFL, 3 sacks; 1^st team All-Big East)

6’2 275 lb JR DT Myles Caragein (31 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 5 sacks)

6’5 275 lb SO DT Chas Alecxih (12 tackles, 5 TFL, 4 sacks)

MATCHUP:

This matchup must be terrifying for UNC Offensive Line Coach Sam Pittman. This unit has speed, depth, power, and oodles of NFL talent. This will be the best defensive line—-including the dominant Tar Heel line—-that UNC’s hosses face all season. Pitt will slow the Carolina interior running game, and finish with 2-3 sacks as well.

Linebackers:

6’2 230 lb SO Max Gruder (80 tackles, 4 TFL, .5 sack)

6’2 230 lb SR Adam Gunn (70 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 5 sacks; 1^st team All-Big East)

6’3 240 lb SO Gregg Williams (30 tackles, 4 TFL, .5 sack, INT)

MATCHUP:

There’s not a clear weakness anywhere on this defense, but if you want to nitpick, this unit has two young sophomores starting. Hopefully those guys will get their feet and brains crossed up by UNC Offensive Coordinator John Shoop’s constant pre-snap shifts and fake reverses. Pitt did struggle earlier in the year defending passes to the backs, and that falls largely on this group of linebackers. Watch for Houston and Little (coming out of the backfield) to make a lot of catches against this group.

Secondary:

5’11 180 lb SR CB Aaron Berry (28 tackles, TFL, INT; 1^st team All-Big East)

5’9 185 lb SR CB Jovani Chappel (49 tackles, 8 passes broken up)

6’3 230 lb JR S Dom DeCicco (85 tackles, TFL, 3 INT; 2^nd team All-Big East)

5’10 175 lb FR S Jarred Holley (45 tackles, 3 INT)

MATCHUP:

Although this unit has two All-Big East selections, I think Carolina can attack them down the field with its size and speed at the receiver position. Greg Little (6’3 225 lb) is a major jump ball mismatch with Berry and Chappel, so if Yates can throw the ball well, I think these corners can be picked on.

Special Teams:

K Dan Hutchins (19 of 24 FG; 3-7 from 40+; long of 45; 2^nd team All-Big East)

P Dan Hutchins (41 yards per punt; 16 inside the 20 and only 3 touchbacks)

KR Cameron Saddler (25.7 yards per return)/Ray Graham (22.3 yards per return)

PR Aaron Smith (6.4 yards per return)

MATCHUP:

I’d say that Special Teams is a dead draw here. Hutchins is a lot like Barth—his statistics are solid, but he hasn’t made many long—or clutch—field goals. He missed two field goals in a close loss in the Backyard Brawl vs. West Virginia. Like UNC, the Panthers don’t have a lot of spark in the return game either.

Pittsburgh Game Plan:

Offensively, Pitt wants to do what they always do: control the game with the offensive line. If they can run the ball effectively, Carolina will have a hell of a time getting the Panthers off the field. I expect to see a lot of deep balls from Stull in the play action passing game.

Defensively, Pitt wants to pummel TJ Yates. The Panthers lead the nation in sacks, most of which come from the defensive line. If the front four can create pressure, it’s going to be a long day for the Carolina offense.

UNC Game Plan:

I imagine that John Shoop is going to try to establish Ryan Houston early in the game. I think it’s a good idea, but persistence might not be good if Houston’s not finding space to run early. The Tar Heels always (okay, last year) bring bags of peppermint fresh trick plays to the bowl game, and this year will be no different. Expect some “Diesel” formation (UNC’s version of the Wildcat), as well as a fullback pass (Bobby Rome’s last game) and some Greg Little carries from the tailback position. Hopefully, all of the (jingle) bells and whistles will paralyze Pitt’s defense and lead to a big day for the Tar Heel attack.

Defensively, I expect UNC to try to stifle the running game with the front 4. If Pitt can’t run the ball, Bill Stull’s in a lot of trouble.

Predicted Outcome:

When I started researching Pitt’s team, I was a bit intimidated.  The Panthers sport at least 1 All-Conference performer at every single position group on offense and defense.

I went on to read that they lead the nation in sacks with 46, a statistic that made me feel like a Discovery Channel viewer helplessly watching seals (aka the UNC offensive line) swim their way through Great White Shark infested waters.

After some reflection, I don’t think this team is that good. (They were dominated by NC State).

There’s been a lot of talk about whether the Tar Heels can get excited about this bowl game, but I don’t buy it at all.  Six weeks ago, it looked like the Tar Heels would be Bowling at AMF this winter, and all of a sudden, they get a bowl matchup with a top 25 team in their home state. Sounds good to me.

Pitt, on the other hand, might not be feeling the Meineke muffler magic of this December 26^th Bowl Game. After cruising to a 9-1 start, they hit some pot holes, broke down, and were pushed by hand into the Meineke shop. Had they held on to a 21 point lead in their season finale against Cincinnati, they’d be in the far more prestigious Orange Bowl. You have to wonder how much those ‘what ifs’ will spoil the trip for Pitt.

Score Prediction: North Carolina 24 #17 Pittsburgh 16

You might be wondering why I decided to write an article about TCU when I write for the UNC portion of the Raycom Sports Blog.

We might not be geographically or chromatically close to the purple and black, Mountain West champions, but true Tar Heels and real ACC aficionados have a lot of respect for the nation’s 3rd ranked squad. After all, TCU traveled to ACC country twice this season, first in a blowout win at Virginia (who somehow managed to dominate us in Chapel Hill) and then, in a 14-10 victory in Death Valley over the Atlantic Division Champion Clemson Tigers.

Also, when it comes to justice in the political world of college football, we’re all Horned Frogs.

Below I have listed why I honestly, really, truly, seriously think that TCU belongs in the National Championship. After watching at least a hundred hours of college football this season, including Texas’ games against Oklahoma, Colorado, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, I sincerely believe that TCU could pose a more serious threat to Alabama than Texas would.

Before you read this article, make sure you open your mind a little bit.

Why TCU should be in the National Championship Game:

Later in the article, I want to discuss TCU in relation to other possible fits for the BCS National Title Game. However, before I get to keying Cincinnati and Texas’ championship vehicles, I’d like to start by admiring TCU’s incredibly impressive “body of work” on its own merit. After a little bit of research, I realized TCU’s  is pretty shiny.

TCU

-   TCU’s average margin of victory is 28.3 points. In other words, TCU wins by 4 touchdowns per game, while 67 teams in the nation (six teams in the ACC) score on average less than 28 total points per game.

-   Don’t assume that the Horned Frogs’ impressive margin of victory is just inflated by weak competition. Against bowl teams, TCU is 6-0 with an average margin of victory of 21 points.

-   The Horned Frogs are ranked #4 in the nation in total offense and #1 in total defense. No other team in the country—not Florida, Boise St., Cincinnati, Texas, or even Alabama—is in the top 10 in both of these categories. The ACC doesn’t have a team ranked in the top 5 in either category.

-   TCU QB Andy Dalton is 4^th in the nation in passing efficiency (23 TD 5 INT). You’ve probably never heard of him, but this red-headed star has a higher QB rating than Tim Tebow, Tony Pike, and Heisman hopeful Colt McCoy.

-   The Horned Frogs also boast an unsung hero on the defensive side of the ball. DE Jerry Hughes (11.5 sacks) is one of the top defenders in the nation. He was a 1st team All-American in 2008 and is a two-time Nagurski Award finalist. If you think this team lacks NFL talent, you haven’t seen Hughes bolt past offensive tackles.

-   TCU’s closest game was a 3 point win over Air Force, in which Air Force scored a TD with less than a minute left for the final margin. Other than that game and a 4 point win at Clemson, TCU won every game by at least 16 points.

-  TCU has only been down for 20 minutes the entire season; for 3 minutes against SMU and 17 minutes against Clemson.

Messin’ With Texas

Texas and TCU have one common opponent: 6-6, bowl-bound Wyoming. I don’t think we should read too deeply into the outcome of this game, but I would argue that TCU played a much better game against the Cowboys than Texas did. TCU won 45-10, while Texas won by a score of 41-10. However, the Horned Frogs outgained Wyoming by 329 yards while Texas outgained them by 271 yards. Additionally, TCU put the game away at halftime (leading 24-10) while Texas held only a slight 13-10 lead at the break in Laramie.

Where’s Texas’ big win?

Last year, Texas had a hell of an argument for a trip to the National Title. They beat #1 Oklahoma, #6 Oklahoma State, and #11 Missouri. This season, the Longhorns have no big win to speak of. They have defeated more bowl teams (8) than TCU (6), but they’ve done so by a lower average margin (19) than the Horned Frogs (21). It’s important not to assume that, just because Texas plays in a better conference, that they have achieved better wins this season.

Only two of the teams defeated by Texas are currently in the top 25 (#20 Nebraska, #21 Oklahoma State); TCU also has defeated just two opponents currently in the top 25 (#15 BYU, #23 Utah). In those games, TCU’s average margin of victory was 29. Texas’ average win over OK State and Nebraska was by 17 points. It’s easy to assume that Nebraska and Oklahoma State are much better teams than BYU and Utah due to their Big 12 affiliation, but that’s not the case at all.

Nebraska lost at home to a dreadful 6-6 Iowa State team, while Oklahoma State got spanked 27-0 against Oklahoma. #15 BYU, in case you’ve forgotten, opened the season by knocking off the Sooners who played half of the game with Heisman QB Sam Bradford. As for #23 Utah, they have a solid 9-3 record, but have won 22 of their last 25 games. Ask Alabama how tough this program is.

Why Not Cincinnati?

Cincinnati does have an impressive resume, including a 7-0 record against bowl teams and a 3-0 record vs. teams in the top 20.  However, they have surrendered 36.5 points per game over the last 4 games which makes me think that they are certainly not one of the best two teams in the country. Truly great teams, like TCU, are dominant on both sides of the ball, and for the Bearcats, that’s just not the case.

Why Not Boise State?

- Boise St. QB Kellen Moore (39 TD 3 INT, 1st in the nation in Pass Efficiency) might be the best statistical quarterback in the nation, but that can be attributed to the Broncos’ horrendous schedule and their blue-field, camouflage advantage. (Seriously, why is Boise allowed to wear blue uniforms on a blue turf field? That has to be impossible for opposing defenses!)

- Boise St. played an FCS team, a 1-11 Miami (Oh) team, 2-10 San Jose State, 4-8 Louisiana Tech, 4-8 Utah State, and 3-10 New Mexico State. UVa could have won 8 games with that schedule. TCU went on the road to play Big 6 opponents, while Boise State only played one Big 6 team all season (Oregon). They did win that game, but since then, they’ve been pretty unimpressive on defense, surrendering 30+ points to three WAC conference opponents.

- I can’t watch 20 minutes of a Boise State home game without my eyes throbbing in pain.

- Boise State’s field is so ugly, it’s used as the site for the mistakenly named Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl. What could possibly be humanitarian about sending a team to spend its Christmas away from family and in Boise on a blue field?

Conclusion:

TCU is not in the title game for a few reasons…

-   They don’t have Colt McCoy, the Texas name or tradition, or the hype…

-    They started the season with an unfairly low ranking. Last season they finished 11-2 with losses to national runner-up Oklahoma and undefeated Utah, whom they lost to by just 2 points. They returned 10 starters, and yet they were still not ranked better than 16^th during their first game at Virginia. In the preseason polls, they shouldn’t have been ranked above Texas or Alabama…However, I’d argue that they should have been top 10 from the beginning which might have helped their cause and allowed them to jump Texas at some point.

-   They suffer from a perceived lack of talent in the Mountain West. People hear the name “Big 12” and expect it to be exceptionally deep and talented. In fact, TCU played just 2 less bowl teams than Texas and the same amount of CURRENTLY ranked teams. They won their games against these teams more convincingly than Texas did.

I’m not saying there should be a playoff. That’s a subject for another article at another time.

What I am saying is this—for the BCS system to work fairly, voters need to pay closer attention to some of the under the radar teams like TCU.

For the most part, I was pleased with the energy and effort of the UNC team in today’s 68-66 loss to #5 Kentucky. Nonetheless, there are still a number of little things—things that we did exceptionally well last season—that need to improve if this Carolina team wants to make a run at a Final Four or another national title.

1) Post entries- We really, really struggled to feed Thompson, Davis, and Zeller in the post today. Frankly, Davis seemed like he was in and out of the game mentally. I don’t know if he was discouraged or what, but he just didn’t seem to be trying that hard to seal off bulkier Wildcat defenders in the block area. Making matters worse, Larry Drew and Dexter Strickland made some poor post entries into traffic, often staring down their intended targets and allowing Kentucky defenders to cheat their way into the passing lanes. On a day when Kentucky was unable to muster much offense in the half court, these turnovers were critically important.

2)Execution Turnovers- Our offensive execution was far from crisp, leaving us burned to a crisp by turnovers once again. On various occasions, we struggled to in bound the ball. At least one of these in-bound adventures resulted in a UNC turnover. There were also a lot of ugly passes in our half court sets that sent the offensive rhythm sputtering to a halt.

3) Lack of Aggressiveness Turnovers- Shoot-first, NBA style offenses receive a lot of criticism in college basketball, but sometimes, under-aggressive, over-passing offenses are just as ineffective. If you’re a scholarship player at UNC, there’s rarely a good reason to pass up a 10 foot jumper or jump hook in the lane in order to make a far more difficult pass attempt. Ed Davis has frequently committed this basketball sin from the high post, launching laser passes to the hard hands of teammates just feet away. I love the Tar Heel unselfishness, but at some point, someone on this team has to step up and decide to be a go-to scoring option. If Ed Davis wants to be a top 10 pick in next year’s NBA Draft, he needs to show scouts that he can be that man.

4) Free Throw Shooting- Not to pick on Ed, but no one should ever airball a free throw at the college level. Our team free throw percentage is pretty poor this year, and as the 2007-2008 Memphis team will tell you, that can cost you a shot at a national title.

I still see this team finishing in the top 10 in the country, but without growth in these areas, we could be a 5 or 6 seed come NCAA tournament time. They’d kill for that kind of a season in Raleigh, Blacksburg, or Charlottesville, but this is Chapel Hill. We can, and will do better.

Anything else would be disappointing to Tar Heel fans as Al Groh’s firing was to Virginia Tech fans.

Ok, there probably isn’t a Tiger Woods – Tar Heel connection but I thought it made for a great headline.

However, the Heels hopefully will “run over” the Kentucky Wildcats and keep the positive momentum going with this young basketball team.

There is no doubt that in college basketball you need great guard play to be an elite team. We just saw Larry Drew and Dex Strickland give the Heels terrific guard play against Mich State. Can they play at that level every game? I hope so. Larry Drew looked like a different player in that game….he was confident, his shot was accurate, and he didn’t turn the ball over.

I have a dream that John Henson against Kentucky will swat a couple of balls into the stands while on defense…his length is starting to affect games.

The Wear twins remind me of Tyler Hansbrough…it just makes me feel better seeing them on the court.

Deon Thompson and Ed Davis are starting to assert themselves in the lane. That is their turf and they need to own it.

Note to Players: Practice your free throws this week.

MrTarHeel
www.mrtarheel.com