So far, the Hardwood Heels have a smooth 6-1 record that includes a win against then #15 Ohio State.

In Blacksburg or Charlottesville or Winston-Salem, this would probably be enough to energize the fan base and inject the home arena with the electricity of expectation. But in Chapel Hill, we expect more. Last year’s unbelievable quartet of NBA draft picks—Danny Green, Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, and Tyler Hansbrough—has set the bar higher than ever before. And so the fan base this season has been quite critical of the Tar Heels’ often sloppy performances in the first quarter of the season.

However, it appears that things are looking up in Tar Heel town, towards a Carolina blue sky above.

Here’s my scouting report of the Tar Heels’ first 7 games, including all the positives, negatives, and in-betweens.

Best Quote:

“i also really got disturbed with my team… the ball’s loose laying on the floor and he’s (the gardner webb guy) about 18 feet away, and we got four guys doing the mexican hat dance deciding who’s going to get the dadgum hat off the floor.”

- Roy Williams

Positives:

- Larry Drew II and Marcus Ginyard (both at 47% from 3PT range) appear to have smoothed out their shooting strokes. Neither one will light you up like an Ellington or a Green, but they can both hit the open trifecta which is a necessity in today’s game.

- Deon Thompson (17.9 points per game) looks comfortable as the team’s primary scoring option. His mid range game and free throw shooting (80%) have improved markedly.

- This is a very unselfish team. Larry Drew II (6.7 assists per game) and Marcus Ginyard (4.1 assists per game) have been generous in the backcourt while Deon Thompson (note the beautiful backdoor feed to Ginyard in the Nevada game), Tyler Zeller and Ed Davis continue to impress with their crafty interior passing.

- Last year, the Tar Heels could score from anywhere. Lawson, Ellington, Green, and even Hansbrough could and often did shoot confidently from the land of milk and honey. UNC Version 2009.2010 has avoided the temptation to launch a lot of long range shots, instead choosing to constantly feed the saints of the paint, Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, and Tyler Zeller. This team knows its offensive identity, and that’s a major plus at this point in the season.

Negatives:

- This year’s team is shooting just 66% from the free throw line (last year the Heels were 75% at the line)! Surprisingly, the guards and small forwards have dragged down the team average, combining for a woeful 56% from the stripe. Poor free throw shooting almost cost us the Ohio State game, and it could cost us again later in the season.

- In my opinion, Ed Davis has not been nearly aggressive enough on the offensive end of the floor. Will Graves has taken more shots than Ed Davis, despite the fact that he’s played 43 less minutes and shot a much lower percentage (35%). Davis is an excellent passer, but when he catches the ball in the lane against a zone, he often forces the dump down pass to the low block instead of shooting the high percentage mid range shot. We need Ed to be our secondary scorer, but he’s got to want to score for that to happen!

- Speaking of Will Graves, what happened to the big guy’s stroke? Graves used to hit about 70% of his three point attempts in warm ups—while standing out of bounds! Maybe the regulation court size is just too small for him, but unless he improves his shooting numbers (35% from the floor, 27% from 3 PT), he’ll learn that perhaps his performance is too small to get off the bench.

- UNC is averaging 17.3 turnovers per game so far, and that’s simply unacceptable. Only 5 of those are coming from freshmen, so youth is not entirely to blame here. As usual, a large portion of these turnovers have come when our big men take unnecessary dribbles in traffic, allowing opposing guards free swipes at the rock. For the first time in his career, Ginyard (2.6 turnovers per game) has been particularly sloppy with the basketball. This comes as quite a shock given that Ginyard has never averaged more than 1.6 turnovers in a game before.

- Five star recruit and McDonald’s All-American Dexter Strickland just doesn’t look like a point guard to me. He’s averaged almost 2 turnovers per game in very limited action, and has appeared awkward and unsure of himself in a primary ballhandling role. Similarly, it’s not quite clear what John Henson’s role on this team really is, although he did have a solid outing against Nevada Sunday night.

- Our height has been great for rebounding (and free throw shooting), but it appears to be a liability on the defensive end of the floor. Teams have routinely attacked Thompson, Zeller, Davis, and the Wear twins off the dribble, and so far, we haven’t responded well to that.

- North Carolina’s new student ticket lottery only gives winners one ticket. In the past, students received two tickets and could take a friend with them to the game. This new policy has been an abject failure, as a glance towards the half-empty student section will tell you.

OUTLOOK:

In upcoming games against Michigan State, Kentucky, and Texas, our weaknesses will be exposed because that’s what top 10 teams do. With any luck, we can magnify our strengths, hold onto the basketball, and earn a couple marquee wins in the early going.

If we lose a couple (or all) of those games, don’t fret, faithful fans! As bad as we have looked at times in non-conference play, the ACC is down this year, and I think we will finish in the top 2 in the conference.

North Carolina State

Last Meeting: 2008- NCSU won @ UNC 41-10

Head Coach: Tom O’Brien (86-59 career; 15-24 at NCSU)

Famous Alumni: Bill Cowher, John Edwards

Fun Facts:

1)      Tom O’Brien, when he coached at Boston College, never defeated a Butch Davis Miami team.

2)      Butch Davis, as UNC’s head coach, has never defeated an NCSU team coached by O’Brien.

3)      Former VT quarterback Sean Glennon threw interceptions on 3.2% of his career passing attempts. NCSU backup quarterback (and brother of Sean)Mike Glennon has thrown interceptions on 5.1% of his passing attempts this season. The sequel’s never better than the original…

4)      NCSU is one of two teams in the ACC without a 30+ yard rushing play. The other team is Duke.

5)      NCSU allowed 24 total points in its first three games. Since then, NCSU has allowed 24+ points in a HALF four times, in games against Duke, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Florida State.

6)      NCSU running back Jamelle Eugene saves his best performances for UNC. Eugene averages 3.7 yards per carry against everyone else, and 5.0 yards per carry against UNC. Five of his ten career touchdowns have come against UNC.

7)      In the last two games vs. NCSU, UNC has averaged 23 carries for 34 yards (1.5 ypc) and 4 turnovers. Simply offensive.

8)      Tar Heel safety Deunta Williams had 3 INT last week, and Kendric Burney had 3 INTs the week before. The entire, starting NCSU secondary has combined for 3 career interceptions. Two Tar Heel defensive backs have had more interceptions in the last two weeks (4) than the combined careers of NCSU’s entire starting defensive backfield.

Quotables:

“When you look at it, it’s probably an NFL defense. They have half a dozen guys that are NFL guys. Looking at them, they are very similar to the NC State defense of about seven years ago, or whenever they had all those guys end up in the NFL.”

-          NCSU Coach Tom O’Brien, on UNC’s 2009 defense

Unrelated, hilarious UNC quotable:

“I also really got disturbed with my team… the ball’s loose laying on the floor and he (the Gardner Webb player)’s about 18 feet away, and we got four guys doing the Mexican hat dance deciding who’s going to get the dadgum hat off the floor.”

-          UNC basketball coach Roy Williams, on his team’s lack of hustle vs. Gardner Webb

Offensive Preview

125 rush yards (88^th in the nation) + 274 pass yards (19^th in nation) = 399 total yards/game (50^th in nation)

NC State might have a 4-7 record, but they’ve got a 7-4 offense. Quarterback Russell Wilson is outstanding, and this year, he’s surrounded by experience and talent at the skill positions. State boasts 4 solid wide receivers and a tight end, all of whom are 6’3 or taller and quite experienced. WR Owen Spencer (24.4 yards per catch) might be one of the nation’s top deep threats while WR Jarvis Williams is one of the nation’s best red zone dangers.

Schematically, NC State is a multiple offense, using both one back and shotgun sets as their base formations. They like to do a lot of rollout passing, and a lot of short passing to the backs and tight ends.

The offense’s problems, as in years past, are the running game and turnovers, although the running game has improved this year.

Additionally, the offense this week will be worrying about Offensive Coordinator Dana Bible, who was diagnosed with leukemia earlier this week and will not be at the game.

Quarterback

5’10 201 lb SOPH QB Russell Wilson (2768 yards; 58.1% completions, 27 TD 11 INT; 143.5 QB rating; 276 rushing yards, 4 TD)

Despite throwing 10 more interceptions this season than last season, Wilson is an improved ACC quarterback, as evidenced by his increased QB rating. Wilson has thrown the ball very effectively down the field this season, even against solid ACC defenses. Additionally, the Richmond native might be the third best running quarterback in the ACC behind Tyrod Taylor and Josh Nesbitt. Wilson does a great job of hitting the sideline when a play breaks down, either throwing the ball away to avoid a turnover or scurrying out of bounds to pick up a few extra yards. In last year’s 41-10 blowout of UNC, Wilson played beautifully, completing 17 of 29 passes for 278 yards and 2 TD, while adding 50 yards on the ground.

6’6 211 lb FR QB Mike Glennon (248 yards; 61% completion; 1 TD 2 INT; 113.2 QB rating)

Mike Glennon was one of the most highly touted high school quarterbacks in the nation. However, his lackluster performances this season (quite comparable to brother Sean Glennon’s lackluster career) have led football scientists to hypothesize that terrible pocket presence is, in fact, genetic. Glennon does have a good arm, but he’s not accurate, and certainly not mobile enough to cause UNC’s defense any problems.

MATCHUP:

Wilson is a spectacular talent whose mistakes are more a function of pressing to score points than poor decision making. When your defense gives up 40 points a game in ACC play, you have to try to fit some Sidney Lowe size passes into some Mugsy Bogues’ size holes. Otherwise, you’re just not trying. I think that the improved speed of UNC’s defensive line will limit his rushing yardage compared to last year. I still fear that Wilson could have a big game against this UNC defense though, ala Christian Ponder.

Running Back

5’10 225 lb SR RB Toney Baker (711 yards, 6 TD, 5.0 ypc; 312 yards receiving, 3 TD)

Baker, like the NCSU program, has received a lot of preseason hype—and a lot more athletic tape. Fortunately for Baker (perhaps the most highly recruited RB ever in North Carolina), this year has been injury free. Baker is a very tough runner, and an effective receiver as well. At 225 lbs, he’s tougher to bring down than NCSU’s low basketball expectations. All joking aside, he racked up 152 total yards and 2 TD against now 9^th ranked Pittsburgh, so we know he’s capable of baking up a dozen (or more) first downs against the Tar Heels. Baker doesn’t break a lot of long runs (his long this year is 30 yards), but when he’s playing well, he’ll kill a defense with 5-8 yard carries.

5’10 195 lb SR RB Jamelle Eugene (277 yards, 3.2 ypc)

Jamelle Eugene is living proof of how big the NCSU-UNC football rivalry really is (at least in the Triangle). Eugene averages over 1.3 yards per carry better against UNC than against other teams, and half of his ten career touchdowns have come against the Tar Heels. On Senior Day, I expect Eugene to run extremely hard in hopes of matching his 2007 performance against the Heels (32 carries for 159 yards, 3 TD).

MATCHUP:

Baker and Eugene both play their best football against UNC, and that worries me a bit. Given the fact that UNC allowed 138 yards last week to Montel Harris of BC, the Tar Heel front 7 could be in trouble. Due to their running styles, however, I don’t expect the two backs to combine for 90 yards or more.

Wide Receiver

6’3 185 lb JR WR Owen Spencer (26 catches for 635 yards, 24.4 ypc, 4 TD)

Spencer is speedy, if also inconsistent.

6’4 213 lb JR WR Jarvis Williams (38 catches for 497 yards, 13.1 ypc, 9 TD)

Jarvis Williams is a beast on jump balls near the end zone.

6’4 204 lb JR WR Darrell Davis (23 catches for 362 yards, 15.7 ypc, TD)

Tight End

6’5 265 lb SOPH TE George Bryan (40 catches for 422 yards, 10.6 ypc, 6 TD)

Bryan is cruising towards becoming the 1^st team all-ACC tight end as a sophomore. He has soft hands, and a massive frame to shield opposing linebackers and defensive backs from the ball.

MATCHUP:

NC State’s wide receivers are all very big, but I don’t expect that to be a problem for Kendric Burney and Charlie Brown. Both of these Tar Heel cornerbacks have had great seasons against wide receivers of all sizes. That being said, if Russell Wilson buys a lot of time and creates a lot of scrambling situations, the size advantage of the Wolfpack wideouts could become more of a problem for UNC.

Offensive Line

6’5 315 lb JR OT Jake Vermiglio

6’7 325 lb SR OT Jeraill McCuller

6’5 309 lb SR OG Julian Williams

6’3 310 lb SR OG Andy Barbee

6’2 296 lb SR C Ted Larsen

MATCHUP:

I’m convinced that UNC has the best defensive line in the conference and one of the top 5 lines in the country. I expect this line to take away the NC State running game and force Wilson into a lot of passing situations. In that case, the improved speed and depth of the defensive line will pay dividends, allowing the Heels to sack Wilson at least a few times.

Defensive Preview

137 rush yard allowed (56^th) + 213 pass yards allowed (54^th) = 350 total yards allowed/game (52^nd)

NC State’s defense has suffered an incredible amount of season ending injuries this year, most of which have affected their already porous back 7. Only one of NC State’s starters in the secondary was listed as a starter in August, and three of the back four are untested freshmen.

Consequently, the Wolfpack defense has allowed 435 yards per game in ACC play. While State has seen a lot of turnover on the depth chart, the defense hasn’t forced very many turnovers, causing only 12 thus far this season.

Defensive Line

6’5 265 lb SR DE Shea McKeen (26 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks)

6’4 250 lb SR DE Willie Young (49 tackles, 12 TFL, 8 sacks)

Young has an astonishing 43 career tackles for loss. He is probably the third best defensive end in the ACC behind Robert Quinn of UNC and Derrick Morgan of Georgia Tech.

6’1 290 lb SR DT Leroy Burgess (21 tackles, TFL, sack, INT)

6’1 291 lb SR DT Alan Michael-Cash (52 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 2 sacks)

Michael-Cash is very active for a defensive tackle. He could make it difficult to run up the middle.

Also: DE JR Sweezy (6.5 TFL, 3 sacks)

MATCHUP:

The line is without question the strength of the NCSU defense. Young is one of the most productive ACC defensive linemen in recent memory and Michael-Cash is an extremely active run stuffer in the middle. Mentally, State has the edge here over a Carolina offensive line that has been manhandled in the last two editions of this rivalry. I expect this to be a dead-even matchup, and one that will go a long way in determining the outcome of the game.

Linebackers:

6’5 239 lb SOPH Audie Cole (62 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks)

6’2 237 lb SOPH Dwayne Maddox (40 tackles, 3.5 TFL, sack)

6’0 227 lb SR Ray Michel (41 tackles, 2 TFL)

MATCHUP:

This unit has never really recovered from the preseason injury to star linebacker Nate Irving—the “full moon” that brought out the meanest WolfPack defense on game days. Audie Cole has done a decent job of creating negative plays, but there are just not a lot of other positives to say about this group of linebackers.

Secondary:

5’11 180 lb FR CB Jarvis Byrd (14 tackles, 0 INT)

4 star recruit class of 2009

5’11 177 lb FR CB CJ Wilson (20 tackles, TFL, 0 INT)

6’2 200 lb FR S Brandan Bishop (30 tackles, TFL, 0 INT)

6’0 200 lb SR S Clem Johnson (55 tackles, 2 TFL, INT)

MATCHUP:

Coming into the season, this was a weak secondary. Then, almost all of the best players from that secondary suffered injuries or left the program, leaving Tom O’Brien with the least experienced defensive backfield in the country (probably). If UNC can throw the ball effectively on anyone, it will be this NCSU secondary. Compounding the problem is State’s inability to tackle well, which does not bode well for them as they face elusive receiver Greg Little.

Special Teams:

KR Clem Johnson (20.5 yards per return) and Donald Bowens (23.5 yards per return)

PR Clem Johnson  (13.2 yards per return)

K Josh Cjajkowski (10-12 FG; 4-4 from 40-49 yards); 0 touchbacks on 60 kickoffs; average distance of 58 yards (aka the 12 yard line)

P Jeff Ruiz (38.3 yards per punt; 1 punt blocked on the season)

MATCHUP:

I expect Special Teams to be a draw in this game. Neither team is particularly impressive in the return game or in the kicking game. Casey Barth has made his last 13 kicks for the Heels, but he’s been notoriously shaky on the road in his young career.
NCSU Game Plan

NC State must control the lines of scrimmage to win this game. UNC’s defense is way too good to defeat just with the passing game of Russell Wilson. The Wolfpack must establish some semblance of a running game (FSU only had about 70 yards rushing against UNC, but it was enough in the second half to keep the Heels off balance) in order to do so.

On the other side of the ball, NC State must stop the run. If they don’t stop the run, UNC will just pound Ryan Houston up the middle over and over again, setting the tone and attitude for UNC domination. State needs to pressure Yates into making quick decisions, which he has been incapable of doing well lately.

UNC Game Plan

Similarly, the UNC defense needs to take away the run and keep Russell Wilson inside the pocket. The Heels were able to do this successfully against Tyrod Taylor, so I expect they will be able to do so against Wilson as well.

Offensively, UNC has to establish the reverse game (end-arounds to Greg Little and Jheranie Boyd) and the middle running game (Ryan Houston). If UNC is forced to throw like last week, the energy and tempo of this rivalry game could cause the struggling UNC passing game a lot of problems. State DE Willie Young will undoubtedly be playing his hardest in his final game as a Wolf (?), and if UNC has a lot of long third downs, he could tear us apart.

This game will be as mental as it is physical.

UNC absolutely must approach this game as a real rivalry. If the last two years aren’t motivation enough for this team, I don’t know what is. NC State, despite injury problems and consistently mediocre results, has dominated a vastly talented Tar Heel team in the last two seasons. For this to be a successful season in my book, we have to come out and assert our will on an ailing NC State football program.

NCSU Wins If…

-          Sidney Lowe announces his retirement just before the game. Carter Finley Stadium erupts in joy and the loud stadium gives UNC’s offense all sorts of problems.

-          UNC does not run for 100 yards.

-          Russell Wilson throws for 300 yards with 1 or less turnovers

-          UNC turns the ball over 3+ times.

-          Toney Baker rushes for 100 yards.

Outcome:

There are a lot of things that worry me about this game.

First of all, NC State’s defense seemed to make some strides last week against Virginia Tech. They tackled better, and for the most part, they kept explosive Hokie RB Ryan Williams from breaking any big plays.

Second of all, as bad as State’s defense is, its strength is its defensive line, which could take away our life source, aka the running game. All four Wolfpack defensive linemen are seniors who will be extremely intense in their last games at NC State.

Third of all, NC State has seemed hungrier against UNC in each of the last two meetings, dominating both lines of scrimmage. In 2007, they jumped to a quick 17-0 lead. In 2008, they won 41-10 in Chapel Hill, appearing more intense and physical throughout the entire game. Offensive Coordinator Dana Bible’s shocking leukemia diagnosis will give this team another reason to get riled up for this season finale.

Fourth of all, Russell Wilson’s 11 interceptions in the last 7 games seem to be a result of having to play from a few scores behind in shootouts. In those games, State has surrendered an average of 41 points per game. In the previous 13 games, Wilson threw 0 interceptions, largely because his own defense was giving up just 22 points per game. If NC State can somehow limit UNC’s atrocious offense in the early going, Wilson won’t have to force tight passes into coverage, and probably will not turn the ball over. That would force UNC’s offense to manufacture full field drives, which I’m just not sure that it can do right now.

This game will be a watermark for this UNC program. If we don’t play as hard as NC State does, I will be extremely disappointed in Butch Davis and in the players. This year, I expect that (finally)this team will take it to the Wolfpack. NCSU will make it very, very interesting though.

#24 North Carolina 23 NC State 20

Raise your hand if you thought the Wear twins would play much for the Tar Heel basketball team this year.

I know I didn’t.

With all the other high profile freshmen coming in I assumed the Wear’s were just a couple of tall guys to help in practice. But from what I have seen, these guys should be playing all the time.

They move well on the court, they seem to defend pretty good, they can make the short and midrange shots. ( they do make some crazy passes at times )

To me, they look like they are more comfortable with what they are supposed to do on the court than some of the other freshmen. It will be interesting to see if Roy plays them more in the next month. Even more interesting to see if they play a lot during the ACC season. With a team this young anything is possible. We could suddenly see John Henson and Leslie McDonald contribute points, defense, and good passes during games…but not yet. We could see Ed Davis and Deon Thompson PHYSICALLY dominate opponents on the interior…but not yet.

That’s what will make this season so special. Lots of players with potential. Which ones will show that they can make good contributions during games and earn playing time? So far, it’s the Wear twins in my book.

Could we be seeing a similar Justin Watts blog post in the future? We just might….

MrTarHeel
www.mrtarheel.com

Boston College

Head Coach: Frank Spaziani (8-3 career; 1-0 in bowls)

Last Meeting: UNC defeated BC 45-24 in 2008

Famous Alumni: John Kerry

Fun Facts:

1)      Boston College QB Dave Shinskie sure likes playing the much weaker, Atlantic Division of the ACC. In games against Atlantic Division opponents, he has 7 TD and 1 INT. Against Coastal Division foes, he’s thrown 1 TD and 4 INT.

2)      And speaking of Atlantic Division home cooking—BC is 6-0 at home this year and 0-3 on the road. Unfortunately for the Tar Heels, this one’s in Chestnut, not Chapel, Hill.

3)      Boston College is 31-4 in its last 35 home games.

4)      North Carolina is 10-25 in its last 35 away games, although the Heels are 5-3 in the last two seasons.

5)       But—Boston College is 0-6 all time against Butch Davis coached teams.

6)      Coming into this season, Frank Spaziani led the nation in career winning percentage at 100% (1-0 career record). After Tom O’Brien’s departure a few years ago, he led the Eagles to a bowl victory in his only prior game as head coach.

Quotable:

“They have very good players and they have a good professional scheme on defense.”

-          Boston College Coach Frank Spaziani, on the UNC defense

Hopefully, Tar Heel talents Bruce Carter, Quan Sturdivant, Marvin Austin, Deunta Williams, and Kendric Burney won’t take this quote to heart and leave early for the NFL after this season.

Offensive Preview:

146 rushing (61^st in nation) + 189 passing (92^nd in nation) = 335 total (95^th in the nation)

The Boston College offense has suffered some major losses from last year’s unit. Their only quarterback (Dominique Davis) with returning experience transferred before the season started, while second string tailback Josh Haden decided to transfer just a few weeks ago.

Indiana Jones once said, “I’m like a bad penny. I always turn up.” This BC offense always seems to turn up too, despite the departures of NFL studs (OT Gosder Cherilus, QB Matt Ryan) and offensive masterminds (Jeff Jagodzinski) alike.

Speaking of turning up, veteran offensive coordinator Gary Tranquill, who’s coached at Virginia, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina over his 35+ years of college football experience—leads the BC offense. His steady hand, combined with a typically powerful Eagles offensive line and a mature (if also mistake-prone) quarterback, has made this offense pretty respectable this season. After gaining just 54 yards in an early game at Clemson, the Eagles have gone on to average 407 yards per game in 5 home outings.

Quarterback

6’4 220 lb FR Dave Shinskie (1503 yards, 53.4% completion, 12 TD 9 INT; QB rating of 125.9)

I ripped on Shinskie’s inexperience in my preseason preview of Boston College, but I failed to point out an obvious advantage he brings to the Eagles: maturity (Note: Shinskie is a 26 year old freshman). Statistically, I’m not so sure he should have stopped playing baseball, but his steady hand has guided the Eagles to a 7-3 start when a lot of folks predicted the extinction of the Eagles’ long streak of bowl appearances.

That being said, Shinskie has only played 2 respectable defenses all season long: Virginia and Virginia Tech. In those two games, he has averaged going 6.5 of 19 for 76 yards .5 TDs and 2 INTs, good for a QB rating of 55. Other than that, he’s played against a bad FCS team, two MAC opponents, and NC State, FSU, Wake Forest, and Notre Dame—none of whom could stop a stray grocery cart from running into the team bus (let alone, an ACC offense).

MATCHUP:

Shinskie has played well at home this season, but he hasn’t played a defense anywhere near as talented as the Everett’s Eleven. I expect UNC to hit Shinskie a lot, forcing him into some costly turnovers. If BC cannot establish the running game, Shinskie will spend Saturday on the turf and Sunday in an ice bath, wishing he was icing his elbow in the minor leagues.

Running Back

5’10 192 lb SOPH Montel Harris (1081 yards, 4.9 yards per carry; 13 TD)

If Shinskie is the old bus driver of BC’s proverbial team bus, Harris has the keys. Harris is an explosive back with power and quickness that remind me of Ryan Williams of Virginia Tech. In BC’s 7 wins, Harris has averaged 141 yards per game, 5.6 yards per carry, and almost 2 touchdowns per outing. In their losses, however, Harris averages just 31 yards (the approximate 3 point range of former BC Eagle Point Guard Tyrese Rice) on 2.1 yards per carry.

MATCHUP:

Harris has some great numbers, but it’s hard to tell how much of that stems from his talents and how much comes from playing terrible defenses. Against Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame, he’s gained just 31 yards per game. North Carolina’s powerful defensive tackles are equal, if not better, than Clemson’s, so I expect Harris to get pounded on Saturday.

Wide Receiver:

6’5 196 lb SR Justin Jarvis (168 yards, 12.9 ypc, 2 TD)

Jarvis is one Boston College receiver who hasn’t shown much progress in his four years. He’s never had more than 276 yards in a season, and despite his obvious size advantage, has never developed into a dangerous red zone threat.

5’11 196 lb SR Rich Gunnell (648 yards, 15.1 ypc, 5 TD)

This Eagle has flown under the radar for four seasons, but I guarantee you the UNC defensive staff knows all about him. He’s averaged 129 yards per game over the last 3 outings against Virginia, Central Michigan, and Notre Lame. Since his 931 yard, 7 TD sophomore season (under Matt Ryan), he’s had to deal with pretty fowl Eagle quarterback play under Chris Crane, Dominique Davis, and now Shinskie, which has deflated his numbers a bit. Still, Gunnell is an exceptional route runner with a penchant for the big play.

6’3 196 lb SOPH Colin Larmond Jr. (462 yards, 20.1 ypc, 4 TD)

Larmond has done a pretty good job of stepping into the #2 receiver spot in Chestnut Hill. He’s a big target at 6’3, but he’s actually scored 3 of his 4 TDs from well outside the red zone (57, 59, 47).

Tight End

6’5 238 lb FR Chris Pantale (168 yards, 8.8 ypc, TD)

Pantale has the body of a freshman tight end at just 238 lbs. He is a steady possession receiver. Think Zack Pianalto in his freshman season.

MATCHUP:

After successfully defending Miami’s receivers last week, the Carolina defense shouldn’t have a lot of trouble with these guys. Gunnell could punish the Heels down the field, but other than that, I don’t really see anyone too scary in this unit.

Offensive Line:

6’7 287 lb JR OT Anthony Costanzo

6’8 322 lb SR OT Rich Lapham

6’6 284 lb JR OG Nathan Richman

6’3 323 lb SR OG Thomas Claiborne

6’4 294 lb JR C Matt Tennant

MATCHUP:

As usual, Boston College has an outstanding offensive line. They average 6’5 ½ 302 pounds, which makes them one of the biggest lines that UNC has faced all season long. They only allow 1.2 sacks per game, which ranks 27^th in the nation. I expect UNC’s defensive line to limit the Eagles’ running game, but I don’t think the Heels will get too many sacks against this experienced offensive line of BC.

Defensive Preview:

110 rush yards allowed (29^th) + 217 pass yards allowed (61^st) = 327 total yards allowed (30^th)

It’s never easy to run on Boston College, and this season’s no exception. Despite losing LB Mark Herzlich to cancer and bulky defensive tackles BJ Raji (Green Bay Packers) and Ron Brace (New England Patriots) to the NFL, BC has the 29^th best run defense in the nation this season.

Their pass defense, however, has struggled, surrendering big games to Riley Skinner (354 yards), Christian Ponder (341 yards), Tyrod Taylor (7-10, 126 yards 2 TD), and Russell Wilson (243 yards). I don’t kid myself—TJ Yates is probably not in the same league as these quarterbacks, but this could be a secondary for the Tar Heels to attack. The lack of pressure from the defensive line (103^rd in the nation in sacks) has made it a lot easier on opposing quarterbacks, though.

Defensive Line:

6’5 248 lb JR DE Alex Albright (29 tackles, 7.5 TFL, sack)

6’4 247 lb SR DE Jim Ramella (21 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 sacks)

6’3 291 lb JR DT Damik Scafe (23 tackles, 1.5 TFL)

6’3 278 lb SR DT Austin Giles (22 tackles, 5.5 TFL, sack)

MATCHUP:

Last year, the Eagles defensive tackles combined for 24 TFL. This year’s starting pair has just 7 combined TFL. These guys are very well disciplined, but they’re smallish, and they won’t dominate your offensive line. I expect UNC’s offensive line to get a pretty good push against this front four, possibly allowing Ryan Houston to hit the 100 yard mark.

Linebackers:

6’2 219 lb JR LB Mike Morrissey (31 tackles, 6 TFL, sack)

6’0 245 lb SR LB Mike McLaughlin (33 tackles, .5 TFL)

6’3 225 lb FR LB Luke Kuechly (107 tackles, 10 TFL, sack, INT)

MATCHUP:

The Eagles lost 2008 ACC Defensive Player of the Year Mark Herzlich to cancer in the preseason. 2^nd leading tackler from 2008 Mike McLaughlin returned midway through this season. Still, this unit has become the strength of the defense. McLaughlin (89 tackles, 12 TFL, 4 sacks in 2008) hasn’t produced quite as well this season after the Achilles injury, but he’s seen it all and might not be confused by the Tar Heels myriad misdirection on offense. Freshman linebacker Luke Kuechly has received serious ACC Rookie of the Year talk, which is serious business considering how dominant Virginia Tech RB Ryan Williams has been all season long.

Secondary:

5’11 179 lb JR CB DeLeon Gause

6’0 189 lb SR CB Roderick Rollins (36 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 2 INT)

6’1 221 lb JR S Wes Davis (35 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 2 INT)

6’2 225 lb SR S Marcellus Bowman (50 tackles, 1.5 TFL, sack)

MATCHUP:

This unit has been erratic this season, surrendering major yardage to FSU and Wake Forest but holding pretty steady against the mighty passing offense of Notre Dame. There’s a lot of experience here, and that should give the Eagles a major advantage when the Tar Heels take to the air.

Special Teams:

K Steve Aponavicius (7 for 7 FG; long of 37 yards)

P Ryan Quigley (41.2 yards per punt; 17 punts inside 20 and only 3 touchbacks)

KR Jeff Smith (21.6 per return) and DeLeon Gause (20.6 per return)

PR Rich Gunnell (14.6 yards per return, TD)

MATCHUP:

Don’t let the percentages fool you. Apoonavicius is an atrocious (not really—it just sounds like his name) kicker whose 21-28 mark in the last two season (75%) has included no field goals of over 37 yards. Gunnell and Quigley are both weapons, though, so I’d only consider this matchup a slight advantage for UNC.

Boston College Game Plan

Until the fourth quarter, Miami did a pretty good job of bottling up bruising Tar Heel tailback Ryan Houston. They did so by stacking the box (what else is new?) and forcing TJ Yates to throw into tight spots. Priority number one for BC has to be the elimination of UNC’s running game. As I say every week in this section, if opponents can force the Tar Heels into third and long, they will have very little problem stopping UNC.

Offensively, I’d rent Tom Brady and Randy Moss from the nearby New England Patriots and throw Hail Marys every play. In all seriousness though, I’m not sure what I’d do if I’m BC Offensive Coordinator Gary Tranquill. Most importantly, BC has to establish Montel Harris on the ground because if they don’t, they will face third and longs against the ACC’s best 3^rd down defense.

North Carolina Game Plan

Offensively, I try to ram Ryan Houston up the gut to put us in a lot of 2^nd and 7’s, 2^nd and 6’s. In running situations, I’d continue to rely upon reverses and fake reverses, all of which will set up quick slants and screens if run successfully.

Defensively, I pressure Dave Shinskie, and I pressure the BC receivers. If Shinskie can throw the ball successfully on Charlie Brown and Kendric Burney, he deserves to get the win. Frankly though, I don’t think he can do it.

BC wins if…

-          Montel Harris rushes for over 100 yards; UNC rushes for less than 100 yards

-          Dave Shinskie throws for 250 yards and has no turnovers

-          TJ Yates turns the ball over 3+ times

-          John Kerry decides to run the UNC offensive campaign.

Overall Outcome:

I’ve been one of many people to underestimate Boston College in the past. I will not do it this time around. Their numbers don’t impress anyone, but they play exceptional red zone defense, and they do a good job of controlling both lines of scrimmage. They don’t commit very many penalties either, and their red zone defense is exceptional.

UNC is going to have to earn this game, especially since it’s being played in Chestnut Hill.

In 2004, John Kerry (J.D. from Boston College) and John Edwards (UNC) teamed up and produced one of the worst presidential campaigns in modern history. Let’s hope that Saturday’s performance is a bit classier than that embarrassing outing.

UNC 20 BC 13

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The North Carolina- Miami football game this weekend in Chapel Hill could be my kind of game. I’m not a big fan of games where neither team can stop the other and it becomes just an offensive show( we certainly don’t have to worry about that with the Heels offense! ). I like tough fought football games where defense is King.

Carolina can win because

1) Their Defense is very good. ( I think the Heels can get 1 or 2 interceptions on Jacory Harris )

2) The field might be soggy. A wet field could slow down the speed of Miami.

3) Ryan Houston is a beast. I would love to see Ryan punish the Miami defense all game.

4) The game is in Chapel Hill. Hopefully there is some advantage to that.

5) Butch knows a little about the coaches over at Miami. Hopefully his familiarity with their tendencies will help the Heels figure out what Miami is going to do in certain situations.

6) Miami has more to lose so the pressure is all on them. A BCS game and the Top Ten is on the line for them.

7) I believe North Carolina is starting to figure out who they are. They are not capable of scoring the way they did last year ( big play receivers, etc ). They do have to grind it out, get creative with the running game, and not turn the ball over. As long as the gameplan is something like that the Heels have a good chance to win.

3:30pm is when it all starts on Saturday.

Go Heels!

MrTarHeel

Miami!

Head Coach: Randy Shannon (17-15; 8-12 in ACC play)

Last Meeting: UNC won 28-24 @ Miami in 2008

Famous Alumni: The Rock, Sylvester Stallone, Gloria Estefan

Fun Facts:

1)      Miami tight end (and former Miami basketball center) Jimmy Graham is almost averaging as many points per game in football this season (4 TD in 9 games; 2.7 points per game) as he did in basketball last season (4.0). Looks like the big Graham finally found the right sport…

2)      After rushing for 101 yards in 2008, Miami QB Jacory Harris has rushed for -102 yards in 2009, giving him a total of -1 yards rushing on 65 career attempts. You’ve heard of one step forward, two steps back? How about 65 attempts forward, one yard back?

3)      Miami kicker Matt Bosher has converted a higher percentage of 50+ yard field goals (100%) than 20-29 yard field goals (67%) this season.

4)      Miami’s yards per completion increased from 10.8 in 2008 to 14.8 in 2009. UNC’s yards per completion has decreased from 14.2 in 2008 to 9.3 in 2009.

5)      Miami’s admissions office is slightly more forgiving than its defense, accepting 38.6% of applicants in the fall of 2008. The defense has allowed opponents to convert on 37% of 3^rd down opportunities.

Quotables:

“Welcome to Miami—Bienvenidos a Miami” —Will Smith “Miami”

Offensive Preview

137 rush yards/game (75^th in nation) + 265 pass yards/game (28^th in nation) = 402 yards/game (46^th in nation)

Yet again, there’s a new offensive coordinator in Coral Gables: Mark Whipple. This time, it appears that he’s here to stay.

Whipple is an aggressive coordinator who likes to call a lot of deep shots downfield. He’s pretty creative, especially for an ACC coordinator, and he runs most of Miami’s sets out of the one-back look.

Quarterback

6’4 190 lb SOPH Jacory Harris (2336 yards, 61.2% completion, 18 TD 12 INT; 149.7 rating)

Coming into this season, a lot of people (myself included) expected Miami to emerge from its hellish opening four games with no wins and little “swagger”. However, after big wins against Florida State and Georgia Tech, Jacory Harris—2007’s Mr. Football in Florida—looked to be a steady quarterback with a shot at the Heisman.  Since then, the sparkle from those wins dulled, and reality set in a little bit. Regardless of talent or poise, Harris is still a true sophomore quarterback playing his first year under Mark Whipple’s offensive scheme.

Despite his bean pole build, Harris does a great job of staying in the pocket and keeping his eyes focused downfield. That being said, he takes a lot of sacks (25 this season) and has turned the ball over frequently, tossing 12 interceptions in 9 games thus far. In other words, while he can make every throw in the book, he has a lot of room to improve—especially against top notch defenses. In games against top 50 defenses, Harris’ QB rating plummets from 149.7 to 128.5. For those of you keeping score at home, that rating would be worse than the much maligned Terrelle Pryor’s.

MATCHUP:

Harris is already good. One day he will be great. Carolina’s defense is already great, ranked 5^th in the nation in total defense. I expect a couple of turnovers from Harris and a lower completion percentage than usual. If Harris goes down, Miami will have to turn to freshman AJ Highsmith who has no relevant game experience.

Running Back

6’0 215 lb SR Javarris James (421 yards, 5.3 ypc, 4 TD; 62 yards receiving)

James has experienced a bit of a renaissance in his final season as a Hurricane. He’s finally been healthy, and that’s taken his explosiveness to a whole new level. His 5.3 yards per carry are more than he’s ever averaged. James is more of a powerful interior runner than Cooper.

6’0 205 lb JR Graig Cooper (478 yards, 5.7 ypc, 2 TD; 71 yards receiving)

Want to know how explosive Graig Cooper is? In last season’s game against UNC, Cooper picked up 72 yards on his first four carries. If any player on this offense scares me, it’s Cooper, who can score faster than you can say tropical depression. Fortunately, Carolina contained Cooper after that hot start, holding him to 38 yards on 15 carries for the remainder of the game.

5’11 217 lb JR Damien Berry (356 yards, 6.5 ypc, 6 TD)

MATCHUP:

Miami’s backs caught a lot of passes in the first few games, but since then, it appears Coordinator Mark Whipple has gotten away from the screen game. I don’t expect these backs to have much success against Carolina’s 8^th ranked run defense. If they can keep our defense honest by picking up some yardage on draws and stretch plays, it’ll make things a lot easier for Jacory Harris in the passing game.

Wide Receiver

6’4 215 lb SOPH Laron Byrd (342 yards, TD, 14.3 yards per catch)

6’3 215 lb JR Leonard Hankerson (517 yards, 4 TD, 19.7 ypc)

6’3 215 lb SOPH Aldarius Johnson (214 yards, TD, 16.5 ypc)

5’10 175 lb SOPH Travis Benjamin (428 yards, 4 TD, 18.6 ypc)

Benjamin might be the most explosive player on the Hurricanes roster. Built in the mold of former Miami great Santana Moss, he’s shifty on screens and dangerous on the downfield deep balls.

MATCHUP:

Byrd, Hankerson, and Johnson will all have big size advantages over Kendric Burney and Charlie Brown. These guys don’t just look tall on the roster sheet; they also play like it. I’ve seen Byrd and Johnson especially come down with a lot of high jump balls, and that has to be a concern for Carolina’s defense. Nonetheless, Burney and Brown have defended other tall receivers admirably, and I think they will do so again Saturday.

Tight End

6’4 253 lb SR Dedrick Epps (190 yards 2 TD)

6’8 260 lb SR Jimmy Graham (96 yards 4 TD)

MATCHUP:

Miami uses these tight ends very effectively in the red zone. Graham’s hard to stop near the goal line due to his sheer size and his posting up ability (he was a 4 year contributor on Miami’s basketball team), but his hands aren’t great.

Offensive Line

6’7 314 lb SR OT Jason Fox

6’7 307 lb SR OT Matt Pipho

6’7 318 lb JR OG Orlando Franklin

6’2 315 lb SOPH OG Harland Gunn

6’3 300 lb SR C A.J. Trump

MATCHUP:

Miami ranks 105^th in the nation in sacks allowed with 2.89 surrendered per game. The Canes have not faced a defensive line as talented as North Carolina’s line, which has combined for 47 TFL, 20 sacks, and 9 forced fumbles so far this season. If Robert Quinn doesn’t take over this game, his presence alone will allow EJ Wilson and other Tar Heel defensive linemen to go one on one with Miami’s offensive linemen. Advantage: UNC.

Defensive Preview

123 rush yards allowed (45^th in nation) + 205 pass yards allowed (42^nd in nation) = 328 total yards allowed/game (30^th in nation)

Miami has a stellar defense this season, but nothing to write home about just yet. They don’t force a lot of turnovers, and they’ve struggled with injuries in the last few games. In games against Wake Forest and Clemson, the Hurricanes played like tropical depressions, surrendering 555 and 410 yards, respectively. If there’s a good time to play this defense, it’s right now.

Defensive Line

6’3 250 lb JR DE Steven Wesley (11 tackles, 5 TFL, 2 sacks)

6’1 237 lb SOPH DE Marcus Robinson (17 tackles, 6 TFL, 4 sacks)

6’4 288 lb JR DT Allen Bailey (24 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 7 sacks)

6’0 280 lb JR DT Josh Holmes (14 tackles, 3 TFL)

MATCHUP:

Coming into this season, this defensive line looked like a Category 4 Hurricane, storming towards the beached whale offenses of the ACC. Injuries to DE Eric Moncur as well as some sophomore slumping have made this line a little bit less effective than expected. Speaking of whales, DT Allen Bailey could blow up some holes against UNC’s interior offensive line, especially if Alan Pelc is forced to start his first game ever at Center. (Centers Lowell Dyer and Cam Holland did not play in the second half of the Duke game). It will be a lot harder to run on this line than it was to run on Duke’s line (in other news, it’s harder to dunk on Shaq than it is to dunk on Greg Paulus), but I think the Heels should rush for at least 150 yards against Miami—mostly up the middle.

Linebackers

6’3 242 lb JR Colin McCarthy (64 tackles, 7.5 TFL, INT)

6’1 215 lb SOPH Ramon Buchanan (15 tackles, 2 TFL)

6’0 235 lb SR Daryl Sharpton (58 tackles, 3.5 TFL)

MATCHUP:

McCarthy is one of the top linebackers in the ACC, and Sharpton is experienced, but this unit clearly misses Sean Spence who was a major force on defense last season and early this year. Buchanan is small and could be a target for mismatches against TE Zack Pianalto in the passing game.

Secondary

5’11 195 lb SOPH CB Brandon Harris (45 tackles, 5 TFL, sack, INT)

6’1 185 lb JR CB DeMarcus Van Dyke (19 tackles, 2 TFL, INT)

6’1 210 lb SR S Randy Phillips (31 tackles, 2 INT)

6’2 197 lb FR S Vaughn Telemaque (27 tackles, 1.5 TFL)

MATCHUP:

The Canes’ passing defense is solid, but relatively inexperienced. Telemaque is a former UNC recruiting target with great size and athletic ability. I expect this unit to effectively limit UNC’s passing attack. This matchup is a victory for UNC if the Heels do not throw any interceptions!

Special Teams

K Matt Bosher (10 of 12 FG; long of 51)

P Matt Bosher (42.3 yards per punt; 17 punts inside 20 vs. only 3 touchbacks)

PR Collier (15.3 yards per return, 2 TD)

KR Cooper (26 yards per return) and James (22 yards per return)

MATCHUP:

Bosher has a strong, accurate leg as a punter and as a kicker. Additionally, Miami has a ton of speed and elusiveness at the return positions. Although Da’Norris Searcy has done a great job returning punts this year for the Heels and Barth and Schallock have also improved, I have to give the edge here to the Hurricanes.

Miami Game Plan:

Miami’s absolute, number one, big-time, gotta-have it, key to the game—sponsored by Billy Bob’s Barbecue Bites and Midas—is putting the brakes on Ryan Houston and a Carolina running game that has been very effective against FSU, Virginia Tech, and Duke. If the Heels cannot run the ball, their offense goes the way of the dodo, the condor, or JJ Redick’s rap album—that is to say, extinct.

If Carolina faces 2^nd and 3^rd and long situations, they will get blown out of town like a trailer park in a Category 5 Hurricane. Therefore, Miami will pack the box and run blitz to put UNC in those dreaded situations.

Offensively, Miami needs to establish balance. Even if they just run for 100 yards on 3.5-4 yards per carry, it would be a great success for Miami because it would slow down UNC’s pass rush and keep them in 2^nd and 7 situations, which open up the short passing game.

UNC Game Plan:

Take away the run! The Heels easily extinguished Duke’s running game and therefore were able to sit back and attack the passing game. If UNC can make Miami one dimensional as well, their chances of slowing down Jacory Harris will increase dramatically. Additionally, North Carolina has to tackle well to keep Miami’s short, high percentage passing game exactly that—short. Collier and Benjamin can slice open a defense that misses tackles, and that cannot happen for UNC.

Offensively, UNC will try to ram some Houston right up the gut of Miami’s defense. It won’t work as well as last week, but if it keeps the Tar Heels in short yardage downs, the Heels will continue to improve upon their 54% 3^rd down conversion rate of the last two games. The Heels need to hurt Miami on the perimeter with reverses and bootleg passes in order to soften up the middle because that’s where the Hurricanes will be stacking up the proverbial plywood.

Miami Wins If…

-          UNC doesn’t pass for 150 yards or run for 150 yards

-          Miami throws for 300 yards with 1 or less turnovers

-          Graig Cooper and Javarris James combine for 150 yards or more

-          Miami scores a special teams touchdown

Prediction:

Last week, Carolina broke its defensive tendencies and played a lot of press man-to-man coverage. This tells us that Everett Withers finally has some major confidence in this defensive unit, which might be as talented as any in the country, save Alabama, Florida, and Texas.

I expect this game to be a low scoring slug-fest, (given my previous predictions, expect a shootout now that I’ve said that)with the turnover battle winner holding the edge.

UNC 16  #14 Miami 9

-  Ryan Houston was 11 yards short (164 yards) of becoming Duke’s leading rusher for the season—just counting his yardage from Saturday’s game.

-  Duke’s receivers combined for just 68 yards receiving on Saturday. Coming into the game, they had two receivers (Vernon and Varner) who each averaged more than 68 yards per game individually.

-  Duke’s leading receiver Saturday finished with 22 yards. If Duke center Brian Zoubek stood at the line of scrimmage and caught ten passes, tipping over forward after each reception, he would have finished with about 25 yards.

- Thad Lewis finished the game with 125 yards passing. He had more passing yards than that—131—in the first 16 minutes against NC State.

- The Duke loss brings the Devils to 0-4 against winning teams this season (including Richmond); Duke is now 1-9 in their last ten games against teams finishing with a winning record.

-  Two of Duke’s next three games are against teams with winning records. They must win two of those games to make a bowl game for the first time since 1994.

- NC State has finished 5-9 in its last 14 games against opponents’ finishing with winning records (assuming BC finishes with a winning record). The Pack need to win their remaining 3 games to get to a bowl, but unfortunately for the Pack Rats (NCSU fans) all 3 of those games (Clemson, @Virginia Tech, North Carolina) are against teams with winning records.

- Although NCSU defeated 2-7 Maryland 38-31 on Saturday, it marked the 6th consecutive game that the Wolfpack have allowed 31 or more points.

- If NC State wins just one of its remaining 3 games, they will finish with a losing record for the 4th consecutive season.

And if either school trash talks the UNC offense…

-  North Carolina is now 21-39 (54%) on 3^rd down conversions in the last two weeks after starting the season 28 of 93 (30%) in the first 7 games.