Last Meeting:  2008 VT won 20-17 in Chapel Hill

Head Coach: Frank Beamer (182-91-2)

Famous VT Alumni: Jim Buckmaster (CEO of Craigslist), Bruce Smith (Hall of Fame Defensive End), Chet Culver (Governor of Iowa)

Fun Facts:

1)      UNC has 13 wins in 26 all-time bowl appearances while Virginia Tech has just 8 wins in 22 bowl games. What was that about Hokie football tradition?

2)      UNC currently has 24 players on NFL rosters, which is two more than Virginia Tech has.

3)      UNC has graduated one more mullet wearing President (James Polk) than Virginia Tech has total national championships in football and basketball combined.

4)      UNC receivers in the NFL caught more TD passes this past week (2) than current UNC receivers Greg Little, Josh Adams, and Dwight Jones have all season (1). Combined.

5)      In 2008, the UNC defensive line racked up just 30 TFL in the entire season. The Tar Heel d-line already has 36 TFL in just 7 games so far this season.

6)      In Virginia Tech’s last ten games following a loss, the defense has allowed just 234.3 yards per game and forced an average of 2.2 turnovers.

7)      Virginia Tech is currently favored by 16.5 points, despite the fact that UNC has lost to the Hokies by just 7 and 3 points in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

8)      UNC has scored just 38 first half points (7.6 per game) in 5 outings against FBS opponents while VT has scored 137 points (19.5 per game) on average in the first half this season.

Quotables:

“And you’re also a victim of your supporting cast. You could take John Elway, you could take Troy Aikman or you could take any of the great collegiate quarterbacks and if you put them with four or five freshmen in the offensive line, two or three freshmen wide receivers and a bunch of guys that get hurt and you’re playing musical chairs with your offensive line, they’re probably going to struggle a little bit.”

-          Coach Butch Davis, on the struggles of Junior QB TJ Yates

“I think we have the most talented kids we’ve ever had on those teams.”

-          Coach Frank Beamer, referring to the VT punt block/return teams

Virginia Tech Offensive Preview

204 rushing (17^th) + 176 passing (102^nd) = 380 total yards per game (60^th)

Virginia Tech offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring is silencing his critics (myself included) in 2009, after his offenses finished worse than 100^th in the nation in each season from 2006-2008. The development of the offensive line and receivers, coupled with the addition of running back Ryan Williams and the improved accuracy of Tyrod Taylor, has finally made this offense a formidable threat in the ACC.

Unlike last season, Virginia Tech is quite capable of tossing the ball down the field, and that’s a scary prospect for opposing defenses. Last year’s UNC defensive game plan predicated on the Hokies’ inept passing game, but this year, that might not be enough.

Quarterbacks

6’1 210 lb JR QB- Tyrod Taylor (58% completions; 1154 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT; 159 passer rating, 4^th in the nation; 158 rushing yards)

Last season, Tyrod Taylor’s strength was the offense’s weakness. The majority of his big plays came on the ground, when he was forced to evade the opposing defenders that almost always leaked into the pocket.  His throwing motion had a slight hitch, and his accuracy and poise were questionable at best. This summer, Taylor fixed the hitch and it’s paid off big time.

In 2009, Taylor has improved dramatically, shooting up to #4 in the nation in pass efficiency, ahead of Tim Tebow, Jacory Harris, and even FSU QB Christian Ponder, who absolutely tomahawked the Carolina secondary last Thursday. Taylor’s rushing numbers this season have been down from last year, but that’s a testament to the improvement of the offensive line as well as Tyrod’s willingness to stick in the pocket.

MATCHUP:

UNC has the fastest linebackers in the ACC, so I don’t expect Tyrod to do a lot of damage on the ground. However, Taylor now has the consistent accuracy to hit receivers in the safety-corner gap of UNC’s cover 2 schemes, and that’s a major concern for UNC D-coordinator Everett Withers.

Running Backs

5’9 205 lb FR RB- Ryan Williams (834 yards rushing, 10 TD, 6.0 ypc; 165 yards receiving, 18.3 ypc)

When Virginia Tech running back Darren Evans suffered a season ending ACL tear in practice this summer, many expected the loss to cripple an already bumbling offensive unit. Beamer’s boys in Blacksburg knew otherwise. As strong as Evans was, Ryan Williams is a serious upgrade at the tailback position. He’s known for his video game jukes and explosive speed, but Williams is also just as powerful of a runner as Evans. Additionally, he’s extremely crafty and can create yardage even when opposing defenders have broken through the offensive line. Had Virginia Tech defeated Georgia Tech last week, I’d say that Williams is a top 5 Heisman contender as a freshman. Yes, he’s that good.

5’11 207 lb SOPH RB- Josh Oglesby (226 yards, 2 TD, 5.0 ypc)

Oglesby is a steady runner who has finally broken off some big plays in 2009. He’s no Williams, but he’s no Elan Lewis either.

MATCHUP:

Williams has found seams against just about every team on the schedule thus far, including Alabama. He’s a major threat in the screen game, which Florida State and Virginia were able to use very effectively against UNC. That being said, I don’t expect Williams to rush for more than 100 yards on Thursday evening against this strong UNC front 7.

Receivers/Tight Ends

6’2 213 lb SOPH WR- Jarrett Boykin (367 yards, 3 TD, 17.5 ypc)

6’0 205 lb SOPH WR- Danny Coale (316 yards, 2 TD, 26.3 ypc)

6’1 192 lb SOPH WR- Dyrell Roberts (146 yards, 2 TD, 14.6 ypc)

6’3 287 lb SR TE- Greg Boone (52 yards, 0 TD)

Boone has been known to take direct snaps in the so-called wild turkey formation—which looks more like a wild rhinoceros—since he weighs nearly 290 pounds. He’s had a slow start this year, but he’s a dominating blocker and a capable receiver (278 yards in 2008).

MATCHUP:

This is another vastly improved offensive unit for Virginia Tech. All three of these receivers have made big plays in the vertical passing game this year. UNC CBs Charlie Brown and Kendric Burney should be able to defend these guys pretty well—-as long as Tyrod doesn’t have ten seconds to throw—but true freshman nickel corner Gene Robinson might have trouble against Virginia Tech’s 3 wideout sets. Robinson is filling in for the injured Jordan Hemby, who is listed as doubtful.

Offensive Line:

6’5 303 lb SOPH T Blake DeChristopher

6’5 301 lb SR T Ed Wang

6’2 300 lb SOPH G Jaymes Brooks

6’3 319 lb SR G Sergio Render (seen him go as early as the 1st round in NFL mock drafts)

6’3 277 lb JR C Beau Warren

MATCHUP:

This offensive line has played pretty well this season. Without a doubt, they are a huge part of Virginia Tech’s offensive resurgence in 2009. Nonetheless, they might struggle to control the line of scrimmage against UNC’s dominant defensive front. This is a strength vs. strength matchup; Virginia Tech wants to pound the ball right at you, and UNC wants to take the interior running game away. Both teams have done these things successfully all season long, but something has to give Thursday in Blacksburg. Despite throwing just 18 times per game, Virginia Tech is 95^th in the nation in sacks allowed. That’s bad news when DE Robert Quinn (12 TFL, 7 sacks) and the rest of this Tar Heel defensive line are coming to town.

Defensive Preview

150 rushing (76^th) + 167 passing (15^th) = 317 total yards allowed per game (31^st)

Bud Foster is the best defensive coordinator in all of football. Schematically, he runs an extremely aggressive defense that thrives at taking away the run and forcing quarterbacks into uncomfortable passing situations. He will blitz from anywhere at anytime, and his teams disguise coverage better than any other teams in the nation. It’s not all about the scheme though. His teams play tough, disciplined football, and it’s shown in their results. Foster’s defenses have finished in the top 6 nationally in each of the past five seasons.

Unfortunately for UNC’s inept offense, Foster had extra time to prepare for this Carolina offense. Foster could shut down this offense with two hours of preparation, so this is a major concern for UNC.

If there’s weak feather on the Hokie defense, it’s the run defense which has been exceptional and terrible, but never really in between. Miami, BC, and Duke were entirely unable to run the ball on VT while Georgia Tech, Alabama, Marshall, and Nebraska did so at will.

Also, looking on the slightly brighter side of things, this VT defense has not been creating as many negative plays as usual (63^rd in the nation in sacks, 33^rd in tackles for loss).

Defensive Line

6’2 240 lb JR DE- Jason Worilds (27 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 12 hurries)

Worilds has lower numbers this season, but he’s still probably one of the two or three best defensive ends in the ACC. He’s strong enough to blow tackles out of their stances, and quick enough to outrun them.

6’2 252 lb SR DE- Nekos Brown (31 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 2 sacks)

6’2 308 lb SR DT- Cordarrow Thompson (16 tackles, TFL, .5 sacks)

6’3 275 lb JR DT- John Graves (5 tackles)

MATCHUP:

The Heels ran for over 200 yards on Florida State last week, and it appears the (finally) healthy offensive line has gelled a bit. Starting center Lowell Dyer, who has been out since week 1, returns to the starting lineup as well. Still, Seth Greenberg has a better chance of blocking Yao Ming on a sky hook than this UNC offensive line has of consistently blocking this Virginia Tech front four.

Linebackers:

6’1 229 lb SOPH LB- Jake Johnson (46 tackles, 2.5 TFL)

5’11 202 lb SR LB- Cody Grimm (57 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 4 hurries, 3 forced fumbles)

Grimm is one of the most underrated players in the ACC. He’s fast, instinctive (his dad played in the NFL), and very familiar with Bud Foster’s defensive schemes. Without a doubt, Grimm is the leader of this young group of linebackers.

6’0 230 lb SOPH LB- Barquell Rivers (59 tackles, 3.5 TFL)

MATCHUP:

These guys had some trouble with misdirection and play action passes against Alabama, but they’ve since improved quite a bit. In 2008, Virginia Tech’s linebackers combined for 12.5 sacks, but this year, they’ve mustered as many sacks as I have (less if you include my intramural flag football sack). If the Hokie defense were a Thanksgiving meal, these guys would be the dark meat—they’re still quite good, but just not as good as the mashed potatoes, stuffing, and white meat on the table beside them.

Secondary:

5’10 192 lb JR CB- Rashad Carmichael (30 tackles, .5 TFL, 3 INT)

5’11 189 lb SR CB- Stephan Virgil (21 tackles, 5 TFL, sack, INT)

Virgil, like Flowers (Kansas City Chiefs), Harris (Philadelphia Eagles), and Hall (Washington Redskins) before him has blossomed into a dominant boundary corner for Virginia Tech. He’s strong in run support, and almost impossible to throw on.

5’11 212 lb SR S- Dorian Porch (31 tackles, 1.5 TFL, sack, INT)

6’4 226 lb SR S- Kam Chancellor (42 tackles, 2 TFL, INT)

MATCHUP:

Ranked teams (Alabama, Nebraska, Miami, and Georgia Tech) have completed just 36 of 102 passes for 1 TD and 5 INT on this defensive secondary. In other words, Virginia Tech’s pass efficiency defense against these four formidable foes is 11 points better than Florida’s pass efficiency defense, which leads the nation. As if this matchup couldn’t get any worse for UNC, the Hokies also boast 3 of their 13 sacks from the secondary.

I’d really like to see Erik Highsmith make some plays in this game. After huge outings against ECU and Georgia Tech, Highsmith has finished with just 16 yards receiving in the last 3 games.

Special Teams:

K Matt Waldron (9 of 11 FG)

P Brent Bowden (44.1 yards per punt)

KR  Dyrell Roberts (41 yards per return, TD)

PR Jayron Hosley (8.2 yards per return, 1 TD)

MATCHUP:

Roberts leads the nation in kick returns while Bowden and Waldron are solid performers in their own right. Due to the inconsistency of UNC kicker Casey Barth and the lack of big plays in the Tar Heel return game, I have to give the big advantage here to Virginia Tech.

UNC Game Plan:

If I’m John Shoop, I continue to call a lot of reverses to the UNC wide receivers. Last year, Carolina’s receivers rushed for 61 yards on just 5 carries against the VT defense. Additionally, I try to pound the ball and run the clock with Ryan Houston and Shaun Draughn to set up the play action passing game. In obvious passing situations, I’d max-protect to avoid major lost yardage on QB sacks.

Last season, UNC’s defensive ends rushed up field and stayed at home to force Tyrod to throw the football through a 7 man zone. Tyrod Taylor has certainly improved, but I’d still like to put the pressure on his shoulders to throw the ball consistently down the field. The top priority for Everett Withers’ defense is to take away Ryan Williams. Whether requires massive blitzing from the linebacker position or just good penetration from the defensive line, UNC needs to take away Williams to have a chance.

VT Game Plan:

If I’m Bryan Stinespring (now that’s a scary thought), I stick with what’s worked all season long: the power running game and the roll-out passing game. If the offensive line wins the line of scrimmage, UNC cannot win this game.

Defensively, Virginia Tech should throw every blitz and stunt and coverage in the playbook at UNC. If I’m Bud Foster, I alert my players to the prevalence of the reverse in the UNC playbook because frankly, it’s one of few plays UNC has run successfully this season. I’d also want to press UNC’s young receivers at the line of scrimmage to test their strength.

Outcome:

All things considered, I don’t feel terrible about this game. I’m coming into it with pretty low expectations, and I’m coming out of it with at least a few bowls of chili and brownies from the ol’ family tailgate.

I can see UNC winning this game a few different ways. If the Heels win the turnover margin and score on defense or special teams, they could win. If Tyrod Taylor gets injured with UNC in the lead, they could win. If Lane Stadium collapses before the game, forcing the teams to decide the outcome in Cassell Coliseum, the Heels win.

Otherwise, too much Bud Foster, Ryan Williams, and (yes) Danny Coale for UNC to handle.

Prediction:

#13 Virginia Tech 17 North Carolina 9

There are lots of folks out there ( almost all smarter than me ) second guessing the style of play of  the Tar Heels. This is a fun conversation for the fan base to have. On defense the Heels seem to play it safe on almost every play. On offense they just are not “streching the field” this year. And many point to that style of play as the reason the Heels lost to Fla State.

I look at it another way.

Carolina’s strategy was working great against the Noles. Rush 4 guys and play solid defense. Don’t make mistakes. Use a little trickeration on offense but don’t make mistakes.

What changed.

Two plays that were not “conservative” lost the game.

Play #1. Yates throws a risky pass downfield to the end zone trying to make a big play. INTERCEPTION. No points.

Play # 2. Instead of a conservative defensive play with the Noles backed up on their own 1 yard line, the Heels got a little too agressive , made a mistake, and gave up a 99 yard TD.

It almost felt like to me that the players wanted to do something dramatic. Just winning the game wasn’t good enough.

The safe and smart decision on both of those plays in my mind would have kept the Heels in control of the game. With momentum on their side I say the Heels would have won that game.

Sure, Fla State would have had a good chance to drive the field and score a couple of times but that would have burned up the clock, amd at least would have given the defense a chance to stop them or get a turnover.

Momentum is a big thing. And when you give it up by trying to do something that you are not accustomed to doing the risk is too great.

I believe that this years team has limitations. But in the Fla State game they were running the ball. They were scoring. They were getting 1st downs and keeping possession. What in God’s name is wrong with that?

This week the Heels have another chance to win a crucial game. And they are playing a team that gets criticized for being conservative on offense. I say the Heels must stay conservative.  Do not put the team in a position to give up a big play to the Hokies. Throw safe passes that only our guys have a chance to catch.  Let Shoop get creative again and use the speed of the Hokie defense against them somehow. Keep the game close until the 4th quarter.

I do agree with many that we should blitz an extra player more often. Our defense can be predictable and there has to be a way to send a player on a blitz without too much danger of giving up the big play.

And this time on Thursday night…..don’t make mistakes and get a victory.

MrTarHeel

www.mrtarheel.com

Florida State Preview

All Time Series: Florida state leads 14-1-1; last meeting in 2004: Florida State won 38-16

Florida State

Head Coach: Bobby Bowden (353-121-4; 21-10-1 in bowls)

Famous FSU Alumni: Burt Reynolds, NC Senator Kay Hagan, Jim Morrison, Richard Simmons, Lee Corso.

Fun Facts:

1)      Last season, UNC played Rutgers and Georgia Tech with extra days to prepare. The Heels averaged winning those two games by a score of 36 to 10.

2)      Florida State was also 2-0 when they had extra time to prepare last season, averaging wins by a score of 28 to 19.

3)      UNC is 4-2 in ESPN Thursday night games, and is one of four ACC teams (Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College are the others) to have a winning road record on Thursday nights*.

4)      In 2008, FSU led the nation in tackles for loss (8.4 per game). In 2009, they’ve dropped to 99^th in the nation with just 4.33 TFL per game.

5)      In 2008, UNC was 80^th in the nation in tackles for loss (5.23). In 2009, they’ve improved to 2^nd in the nation with 9.33 TFL per game.

6)      Florida State QB Christian Ponder, despite having played 4 ranked teams in 6 games, has the 24^th best passer rating in the country, ahead of early Heisman picks Colt McCoy and Jevan Snead as well as ACC golden boys Russell Wilson and Thaddeus Lewis.

7)      Since Bobby Bowden came to Florida State, UNC has had 6 head coaches.

Not at all fun fact:

8)      Through six games in ’09, the Tar Heels’ best starting field position against an FBS opponent has been their 28-yard-line**.

*Thanks to Tarheelblue.com for this factoid

**And thanks to Scout.com for this one.

Quotable:

“Thriller was still two years from being released the last time Florida State University was not invited to a bowl game.” (http://floridastate.raycomsports.com/blog/2009/10/14/a-defense-that-only-their-parents-can-love/?keepThis=true&TB_iframe=true&height=650&width=850)

Andrew Brady of the Florida State blog
Overall:

Coming into this season, experts predicted Florida State to take the next stop towards being “back” at the top of ACC football. I thought that these predictions were wise because all signs pointed to the emergence of a superb FSU offense in 2009.

All that the Seminoles needed then to make a run at the top 10 this season was a traditional Mickey Andrews’, intimidating defense. Despite the return of just 5 starters there, I went ahead and assumed that Andrews would field a great defense again this fall. After all, intimidating Florida State defenses are almost a constant in Tallahassee.

Unfortunately, the replacements for last year’s defensive playmakers just haven’t filled in well. The disaster of a defense has singlehandedly threatened to end the Seminoles’ streak of 27 straight bowl appearances.

Florida State Offense:

129 rushing (83^rd) + 298 passing (13^th) = 426 total (27^th)

Florida State’s impressive offensive performance this fall has gotten lost in all the talk about Bobby Bowden and the struggles of the defense. Make no mistake about it; this is one of the best offenses in the country. In typical, unpredictable Florida State fashion, the offense has been better against teams with winning records. Aside from its 11 lost fumbles and the slight drop off in the running game (4.8 ypc in 2008, 4.0 ypc in 2009), this is an extremely dangerous FSU offense reminiscent of a 1990’s Seminole attack.

Quarterbacks:

6’2 217 lb JR Christian Ponder (67.7% completion, 296 yards per game, 9 TD, INT; 149.4 rating)

When Florida State lost in 2008, all tomahawks pointed at quarterback Christian Ponder, who tossed 1 TD and 9 interceptions in those 4 games. In 2009, the junior quarterback from Colleyville, Texas is not to blame for the Seminoles’ losses, tossing 7 TDs and just 1 INT in those games. Ponder is smart, accurate, and surprisingly mobile (he rushed for 144 yards against Miami last year). In his press conference Monday, Butch Davis compared Ponder to Brett Favre, so you know this guy’s an outstanding quarterback.

That being said, Ponder needs to help this offense cut back on its fumbling problem. Florida State has already lost 11 fumbles in 6 games. Against Georgia Tech, a Ponder fumble put the brakes on a crucial late game drive, and when you’re playing for a defense as weak as Florida State’s you can’t afford mistakes like that.

MATCHUP:

Ponder is by far the best passing quarterback that UNC has faced this season. He should see some moderate success in the passing game, but I don’t expect he will be able to run on us due to our speed at the linebacker position.

Running Backs:

6’1 190 lb SOPH Jermaine Thomas (175 yards, 3.9 ypc, 2 TD)

Jermaine Thomas had an excellent year in 2008. I expected him to hit the 1,000 yard mark for the first time at Florida State since Warrick Dunn. Unfortunately for Thomas, he’s been on and off the trainer’s table this fall. The good news for FSU fans is that Thomas ran like a train last week, finishing with 140 yards and 2 touchdowns against Georgia Tech and silencing doubts about his recovery. If he can produce like that on Thursday, the Heels are in for a long night.

5’11 203 lb SOPH Ty Jones (228 yards, 5.0 ypc, 4 TD)

Jones has seen a lot of carries due to Thomas’ injuries, but other than 108 yard performance against the holy (get it?) defense of BYU, he’s been pretty ineffective. Jones has missed the last two games due to injury but could be back this week against UNC.

MATCHUP:

North Carolina’s front 7 might be the best in the ACC, and that does not bode well for Jermaine Thomas. Thomas struggled against a similarly talented Miami front, ending up with just 21 yards on 10 carries. He will struggle to put up more than 60 yards on this Tar Heel defense.

Wide Receivers:

6’0 191 lb SR Richard Goodman (355 yards, 13.1 ypc, TD)

6’0 183 lb SR Rod Owens (226 yards, 11.3 ypc, TD)

6’3 223 lb SOPH Jarmon Fortson (244 yards, 11.6 ypc, 2 TD)

5’11 165 lb SOPH Bert Reed (364 yards, 13 ypc, 0 TD)

5’11 186 lb SOPH Taiwan Easterling (221 yards, 14.7 ypc, TD)

MATCHUP:

Shockingly, after a troubled offseason at the position, Florida State’s wide receivers appear to be the strength of the team. 3 FSU receivers have had 100 yard games already, and the other two contributors at the position have each had at least 60 yards in a game this year. This position group lacks a proven “go-to guy” but that doesn’t really matter. They have a unique blend of size (Fortson) and shifty quickness (Reed, Easterling, Givens) that could cause problems for UNC. Kendric Burney and Charlie Brown match up well with these guys, but UNC nickel backs Jordan Hemby, Gene Robinson, and Mywan Jackson could struggle to cover these guys when Florida State goes to four or five wide receiver sets.

Tight End:

6’7 271 lb SR Caz Piurowski (182 yards, 14 ypc, 2 TD)

Offensive Line:

6’7 283 lb SOPH OT Andrew Datko

6’5 288 lb SOPH OT Zebrie Sanders

6’2 285 lb JR OG Rodney Hudson (1^st team all-ACC; was not flagged for a single penalty in his first 1,024 collegiate snaps!)

6’5 285 lb SOPH OG David Spurlock

6’3 282 lb JR C Ryan McMahon

Offensive line Coach Rick Trickett, imported from Rich Rodriguez’ dominant spread offenses at West Virginia, made some major progress with this group in 2008. However, the Seminoles’ rushing canoe has run aground this season. Last year, Florida State averaged 4.8 yards per rush, and this year that number has dropped down to 4. Additionally, despite the return of the entire 2008 offensive line and tight end, the Seminoles rank 65^th in the nation in sacks allowed. That being said, we must remember that this offensive line has incredible potential and has helped key the Seminoles’ impressive offensive numbers this season.

MATCHUP:

As with most of Trickett’s offensive lines, these guys are smaller and lighter on their feet. I expect UNC defensive end Robert Quinn to continue his sack-scapade through ACC play with at least 1 sack against left tackle Andrew Datko. I think that UNC defensive tackles Marvin Austin and Cam Thomas should hold their own against Florida State’s guards, limiting the Noles to about 3 yards per rushing attempt.

Florida State Defense:

173 rushing (93^rd) + 253 passing (102^nd) = 426 total (107^th)

Florida State Defensive Coordinator Mickey Andrews is as much a part of Florida State football as the Tomahawk Chop or Chief Osceola. His defenses are traditionally extra-aggressive, keyed by a veritable cupboard full of speedy defensive linemen. Much like Virginia Tech’s defense, their defensive strategy revolves around creating negative plays in the running game, and then overwhelming quarterbacks with heat and disguised coverages in the passing game. The 2008 version of Florida State’s defense finished 15^th in the nation, allowing just 295 yards per game.

This year, after the departures of dominating defenders Neefy Moffett, Everette Brown, Myron Rolle, and Derek Nicholson, Andrews’ defense has been tomahawking itself with mental errors. The Noles have been unable to create negative plays, but they have created some super-positive plays for opposing offenses. On the season, this unit has allowed plays of 30, 31, 31, 36, 37, 38, 40, 40, 42, 44, 59, 60, 62, 69, 73, 73, 77 and 80 yards! That’s 18 plays averaging 51 yards each. Ouch.

To put that in perspective, 36% of FSU’s yards allowed have come on just 5% of their total defensive plays! FSU cannot afford to give up big plays against the inept UNC offense, or they will lose big.

Defensive Line:

6’0 241 lb SR DE Craig Yarborough (4 tackles)

6’4 261 lb JR DE Markus White (15 tackles, 2 TFL, INT)

6’2 271 lb SR DT Kendrick Stewart (9 tackles)

6’0 267 lb FR NT Jaccobi McDaniel (11 tackles, 3 TFL, sack)

MATCHUP:

This unit lacks the depth of last year’s dominant defensive line. It has been unable to create negative plays in the backfield. It is a fast line, but it is also one of the smallest Florida State lines in recent memory, something that could work to the advantage of the UNC offensive line. As always, Florida State still has immense talent here, so you have to think that these guys will hold the UNC running game under 125 yards. I do think that UNC can establish enough of a running game against this line to keep them honest.

Linebackers:

6’2 235 lb SOPH Nigel Bradham (35 tackles, INT)

6’2 226 lb SR Dekoda Watson (32 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks)

6’1 230 lb JR Kendall Smith (40 tackles, TFL)

MATCHUP:

This is an extremely talented and athletic position group, but it hasn’t mattered much in the early going this season. Smith and Bradham have struggled to adjust to starting roles, and Watson, while productive, has been unable to lead this defense to key stops this fall.

Secondary:

5’10 188 lb JR CB Ochuko Jenije (13 tackles, 2 INT; 4 star recruit class of 2006)

5’11 194 lb SR CB Patrick Robinson (14 tackles; 4 star recruit class of 2006)

6’1 235 lb FR S Nick Moody (15 tackles, .5 TFL, .5 sack; 4 star recruit in class of 2008)

6’2 188 lb SR S James Robinson (35 tackles, 2.5 TFL, sack)

Also watch out for: CB Greg Reid (13 tackles, 2 INT; 27^th ranked recruit in class of 2009)

MATCHUP:

Yet again, this unit is extremely talented (4 of the top 5 players were either 4 or 5 star recruits), but they’ve underperformed big time this season. As I mentioned before, they’ve given up a ton of big plays in the passing game. UNC freshman wide receivers Erik Highsmith and Jheranie Boyd could beat these guys downfield for some big plays.

Special Teams:

K Dustin Hopkins (7-12 FG; 16 of 20 PA)

P Shawn Powell (40 yards per punt; 9 of 21 punts inside 20)

KR Greg Reid/Taiwan Easterling

PR Bert Reed/Greg Reid

MATCHUP:

Much like the rest of Florida State’s team, these guys are hard to pin down. Kicker Dustin Hopkins has missed 4 extra points and 5 field goals, but he has hit from as far out as 52 yards. In other words, if this guy’s attempting a long, game winning field goal, my heart will be in my throat.

Florida State Game Plan:

If I’m FSU offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher, I come out with 4 or 5 wide receivers from the get go, and I challenge UNC’s young cornerbacks. I roll Christian Ponder out as much as possible away from dominant defensive end Robert Quinn. I would not try to balance the run with the pass because FSU is overmatched against UNC’s front 7. Instead, I would mix in the rare draw or option play to keep the Carolina defense guessing.

Defensively, I don’t try anything complicated. I simplify the scheme for the young Seminole defense, and I let them focus on attacking Carolina’s 117^th ranked offense. I attack on first down to put UNC in long yardage situations, and from there, I use the Seminole speed to come after Yates in the passing game.

UNC Game Plan:

Avoid second and third and long situations, and mix up the first down play calling! Florida State has not tackled well, so I think it would be wise to try quick wide receiver screens as our first down “runs,” instead of trying to ram Draughn up the middle. If we are going to run the ball on first downs, I’d give Ryan Houston the carries because he has had more success pushing the pile at the end of the play. If that works, it would really open the play action game as well.

Defensively, I’d do whatever it takes to make FSU’s offense all pass and no run.

Florida State wins if…

-          Christian Ponder throws for 300+ yards and has 0 turnovers

-          Florida State rushes for 150+ yards

-          UNC turns the ball over 3+ times.

-          Former Florida State student and Doors’ lead singer Jim Morrison comes back from the dead and gives the Seminoles’ defense an impassioned pregame speech. Morrison lights their fire, and the defensive line “breaks on through” to the other side of the line of scrimmage, disrupting the Tar Heel offense and finishing with 10 or more tackles for loss.

Predicted Outcome:

Florida State is an utterly unpredictable team. In consecutive weeks, they nearly lost to FCS Jacksonville State and then traveled to #7 BYU and won by 4 touchdowns.  Which Seminole team shows up will determine the outcome of Thursday night’s game.

On the other hand, UNC’s performance this season has been quite predictable. We know every week that the defense will be outstanding and the offense will be far from it.

All Florida State needs to do to knock off UNC is protect the football and limit UNC’s offensive big plays. UNC has forced almost no turnovers against FBS teams, and has produced very few big plays on offense. Those two factors—plus the desperate status of Florida State’s bowl hopes—make me think that Bobby Bowden’s boys leave Chapel Hill with the victory Thursday night.

Florida State 24 UNC 17

What does Butch Davis bring to Tar Heel football?

Hope. Excitement. Good recruiting classes. Better facilities.

Big Games on National TV!

I like all of that. Now, to go with that I and most Tar Heel fans want one more thing. TO WIN THE BIG GAME!

The Thrilla in Chapel Hilla is a Thursday night spectacular!( sorry if I have cheapened the word “spectacular” for you ). Yes, FSU isn’t what is used to be. Yes, UNC’s season is getting scary with their injuries and problems on offense.

But isn’t that what a Thrilla is all about?

This game could go either way. FSU has looked fantastic to me at times. Too bad for them the team they are playing usually looks better. At 2-4, Florida State really needs this game. Lose this game and we could see some dramatic statements coming out of Seminole Country asking for some coaching changes.

I feel good about where the Heels are right now though. They have had some extra time to heal and to prepare for this game. They are playing at home and at night which could give them an extra boost. And I really like our defense.

If Carolina gets this win then Tar Heel fans can really look forward to the rest of the season.

Go Heels!

 

MrTarHeel

www.mrtarheel.com