Game Time: Noon (Raycom Sports)
All-Time Series: North Carolina leads 56-53-4 (last meeting in 2008: Virginia won 16-13 in OT and has won 9 of the last 11 in the series)
Virginia (0-3; 0-0 ACC)
Head Coach: Al Groh (82-87; 3-2 in bowl games)
Famous Alumni: Katie Couric, Edgar Allen Poe, Woodrow Wilson, Georgia O’Keeffe, Tina Fey
Fun Facts:
1) UVa has a per student endowment of 191,000 dollars. That’s over 3 times the per student endowment of UNC-Chapel Hill (55,000) and highest among all public schools.
2) However, UVa is not well endowed on the offensive line or in the offensive backfield because the Cavs are 112th in the nation in rushing yards per game.
3) The Cavaliers were the best protectors in the ACC last year, giving up only 16 sacks. In three games this year though, they’ve already surrendered 13.
4) Al Groh has coached at UNC for one more year (Assistant Coach: 1973-1977) than Butch Davis has.
5) UVa cornerback Vic Hall compiled 13,770 total yards as a quarterback in high school. That’s just 603 yards—or approximately 300 Al Groh headset tosses short of what UVa’s offense totaled from 2005 to 2008.
6) Groh has a 9-5 record after bye weeks, a .648 winning percentage. He has a .544 winning percentage overall.
(Funny, Out of Context) Quotables:
“We keep on getting better, and obviously our hard work has paid off…”—Virginia CB Chase Minnifield, on the Hoos’ 37-34 loss to unranked Southern Mississippi, which dropped them to 0 and 3.
When asked how his Cavaliers looked during their bye week, Groh said Virginia “looks better on the practice field.” (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/28/AR2009092803226.html)
Without ever having seen the Cavs practice, I agree. Keep up the hard work against UNC this week, Cavaliers. Please!
Offensive Preview
2009: 89 yards rushing (112th in the nation), 190 yards passing (80th in the nation) = 278 total yards per game (111th in the nation)
2008: 96 yards rushing (108th in the nation), 203 yards passing (69th in the nation) = 300 total yards per game (105th in the nation)
UVa’s transition from 3 tight end, power football to Gregg Brandon’s wide open spread scheme has gone pretty poorly so far. The Hoos’ offensive offense ranks 111th in the nation—and that’s after games against an FCS school and two mid-major opponents. However, Al Groh and Brandon made some adjustments to the offense before the Southern Miss game, employing less empty backfield sets and more traditional shotgun looks. The changes improved the pass protection and helped the Hoos ring up a season high 390 yards and 4 touchdowns—2 by air and 2 by ground delivery.
This offense is weak at running back and wide receiver, but with an experienced quarterback, 4 returning starters on the offensive line, and the element of surprise on their side, they could give the Heels some problems in Saturday’s game.
Quarterbacks:
6’3 225 lb SR Jameel Sewell (41-81 512 yards, 4 TD 5 INT; 107.7 rating; 98 yards rushing, 3 TDs)
Jameel Sewell is a lot like ECU’s Patrick Pinkney. He’s been pretty unimpressive this year, but he’s crafty and experienced enough to worry UNC’s defensive coaching staff. Sewell is inaccurate (50.6% completions this year) and not a dangerous downfield passer (about 6 yards per attempt for his career), but he’s a pretty capable runner (11 rushing TDs in 19 games played) and he knows how to win close football games. In 2007, he led the Cardiac Cavs to 9 wins—an NCAA record 5 of which were won by two points or less.
MATCHUP:
Sewell takes lots of sacks (13 in 3 games), and is pretty average as a passer. However, after Gregg Brandon simplified the offense a little bit– he came into his own last week against a pretty good Southern Miss team. If Jameel plays extremely well, he could give us trouble, but I really don’t see that happening, especially given the lack of talent surrounding him.
One other thing to watch out for is the “Wild Cav” formation with CB Vic Hall—who finished 5th all time in high school history in total offensive yards. The option look out of this formation could be a problem for the Heels, especially considering how much the Heels struggled with Georgia Tech’s option last week. However, Hall has missed the last two games with a hip injury and is questionable for this Saturday’s showdown.
Running Backs:
6’0 195 lb FR RB Torrey Mack (5 carries 12 yards; 6 catches 38 yards)
Mack, a 4 star recruit who Tiki Barber has called the next great Cavaliers tailback, has seen limited action this season. That should change Saturday. He will probably see a lot of touches this week, especially if Simpson is still out. According to his recruiting profile on ESPN, he’s speedy but more of a “change of pace” type back due to his lack of big time strength. However, he’s a solid receiver out of the backfield, and certainly a future contributor for UVa.
6’1 200 lb SR RB Mikell Simpson (13 carries 64 yards; 8 catches 37 yards)
Mikell Simpson is a speed back who’s recovering from a gash to the shin suffered a few weeks ago. He’s very dangerous when healthy. In 2007, he replaced an injured Cedric Peerman and had some remarkable performances, running and catching the ball—including a 271 total yard, 2 TD showing at Maryland. Last year he was banged up, and was much less effective, averaging just 3 yards per carry.
6’1 245 lb SR RB/FB Rashawn Jackson (8 carries 17 yards; 3 catches 44 yards)
Jackson was listed as a fullback in the preseason (much like being listed as a wide receiver for Georgia Tech’s offense), but he ascended the depth chart after injuries to Simpson and Dominique Wallace and the transfer of Keith Payne. He’s big and powerful, but a bit of a misfit in the spread offense.
MATCHUP:
Yet again, the Cavaliers are struggling to stay healthy in the backfield. But, as UVa founder Thomas Jefferson once said, “bodily decay is gloomy in prospect, but of all human contemplations the most abhorrent is body without mind.”
Well, these guys will get a great education at UVa, so they’ve got that going for them—which is nice.
What’s not nice for the Cavaliers is that their running backs match up very poorly with North Carolina’s defense. Mack is talented, but his lack of experience will certainly have an effect on play-calling and blitz pickups. Jackson is a power back and will also have trouble getting much going against a tough Carolina defensive line. Simpson is an injured speed back, and that doesn’t bode well for his chances, especially against the fastest linebackers in the ACC.
Wide Receivers:
5’11 190 lb SOPH WR Kris Burd (12 catches 133 yards, TD)
5’11 175 lb FR WR Javaris Brown (5 catches 113 yards, TD)
6’0 175 lb FR WR Tim Smith (4 catches 102 yards, 2 TD)
Smith is a 4 star recruit who’s shown some explosiveness in the early going this season.
6’2 180 lb SOPH WR Jared Green (8 catches 58 yards)
Jared Green is the son of NFL Hall of Famer, Darrell Green.
6’5 250 lb JR TE Joe Torchia (1 catch 15 yards)
Torchia, also a former 4 star recruit, is a holdover from UVa’s conservative, 3 tight end power football days. He’s not much of a factor in the Cavaliers’ passing game this year.
MATCHUP:
We know all about the difficulties of throwing the ball effectively to freshmen and sophomore receivers. Virginia will have that problem all day Saturday, especially against experienced cornerbacks Charlie Brown and Kendric Burney.
Offensive Line:
6’7 275 lb SOPH OT Landon Bradley (1 appearance in 2008)
6’7 320 lb SR OT Will Barker (started 40 straight games)
6’7 315 lb SOPH OG Austin Pasztor (8 starts in 2008)
6’6 305 lb JR OG BJ Cabbell (12 starts in 2008)
6’5 285 lb JR Jack Shields (11 starts in 2008)
MATCHUP:
This is a good offensive line that held UNC to just 1 sack last fall. They struggled in the first two games with the wide splits of the Gregg Brandon spread scheme, but they’ve looked more comfortable as the offense has moved to a more traditional shotgun set up. These guys are enormous and experienced enough to give Sewell time. However, I don’t think they’ll be able to pave running lanes for the young Cavalier tailbacks. Look for DEs Robert Quinn and Quentin Coples to give weak link Landon Bradley some trouble at the right tackle spot.
Defensive Preview
2009: 181 yards allowed per game rushing (102nd in the nation), 164 pass yards allowed per game (25th in the nation) = 344 total yards allowed per game (58th in the nation)
2008: 150 yards allowed per game rushing (72nd in the nation), 184 yards passing allowed per game (26th in the nation) = 333 total yards allowed per game (42nd in the nation)
Al Groh is the big cheese of the defense, and his units have actually been pretty strong in the past. He relies on a 3-4 scheme straight out of Bill Parcells’ playbook. This year’s defensive unit features some fresh faces at linebacker after the departures of Clint Sintim, Jon Copper, and Antonio Appleby.
The Wahoos are a little bit undersized in the front 7—especially for a 3-4 defense, and it appears to be a problem for them in the running game. Nonetheless, depth and talent in the secondary, plus great overall defensive discipline make this a pretty decent unit.
Defensive Line:
6’2 290 lb SR DE Nate Collins (17 tackles, 1 TFL, sack)
6’7 270 lb SOPH DE Matt Conrath (19 tackles, 2 TFL, sack)
6’3 285 lb SOPH NT Nick Jenkins (17 tackles, TFL, sack)
MATCHUP:
All three of these guys saw a lot of time last year and were fairly effective. Against the Tar Heels, they were unable to get much penetration, allowing Shaun Draughn to rush for a career high 138 yards. However, they buckled down in the red zone and they did not allow Draughn any big plays. Against UNC’s erratic offensive front, I can see this line keeping UNC’s running game between 3 and 4 yards per carry.
Linebackers:
6’4 245 lb SR LB Denzel Burrell (15 tackles, TFL, sack)
6’5 245 lb SR LB Aaron Clark (7 tackles)
6’1 230 lb SR LB Darren Childs (21 tackles)
6’2 225 lb FR Steve Greer (24 tackles, 1.5 TFL, sack)
MATCHUP:
Burrell and Childs have seen plenty of game action in the past while Greer and Clark were both sought after, 3 star recruits. This unit has talent, but also the benefit of playing for one of the best linebacker coaches in the country. I can see Draughn and Houston giving these guys problems.
Secondary:
6’2 200 lb JR CB Ras-I Dowling (15 tackles, .5 TFL; 2nd team all-ACC in 2008)
6’2 210 lb SR CB Chris Cook (8 tackles, TFL, INT)
6’0 185 lb SOPH CB Chase Minnifield (13 tackles, TFL)
5’10 200 lb SOPH S Corey Mosley (24 tackles, TFL, INT)
5’10 185 lb SOPH S Rodney McLeod (19 tackles, 3 TFL)
MATCHUP:
The secondary is without a doubt the strength of this defense. Dowling is one of the best cover corners in the ACC while Cook and Minnifield are big, experienced starters with plenty of ACC talent. Groh does a pretty good job of scheming to take away a top receiver, and with this unit, I can see him effectively taking away WR Erik Highsmith. This matchup certainly favors Virginia.
Special Teams:
K Robert Randolph (2-2 FGs; long of 34)
P Jimmy Howell (42 yards per punt)
KR Chris Cook
PR Chase Minnifield
MATCHUP:
This is a unit that we just don’t know too much about at this point. Kickoff specialist Chris Hinkenbein averages kicking 4 yards deep into the end zone, but other than that, the Cavalier special teams aren’t strong. For starters, the kick coverage unit is giving up an average of 34 yards per return. (Although the Cavaliers haven’t been kicking off too much this season, for obvious reasons.)
Virginia Game Plan:
If I’m Al Groh, I start by finding a Bill Belichick, short sleeve UVa sweatshirt from a local thrift store (trust me; there’s practically a UVa football section of Fan-Tastic Thrift in Richmond when the Cavaliers are having a down year on the gridiron). I bust it out just before game time to give my players a little extra spark.
Then, I do what Georgia Tech did to UNC in the early going. I stack the line of scrimmage, and I take away the Tar Heel running game. When UNC is faced with lots of 2nd and 3rd and longs, they can be terribly ineffective in the passing game. I’d roll safety help over towards WR Erik Highsmith because frankly, he’s the only Tar Heel wideout who’s produced consistently this season.
On offense, I’d try to roll Sewell outside of the pocket as much as possible so when passing plays go awry, he can pick up 2-3 yards and keep the Hoos out of 2nd and 3rd and long situations. I’d shy away from the screen game which has not worked for anyone against Carolina this year, and I’d take some deep shots down the field in the early going. If the Hoos can complete a couple of them, this defense won’t be as aggressive as usual, and that’d be a major plus for the Cavs.
North Carolina Game Plan:
Butch Davis shouldn’t have any problems riling up the troops for this one. Just one year ago, the Tar Heels allowed UVa 3rd string QB Marc “Vertical” Verica to drive the Cavaliers 82 yards for a game-tying TD in the final minute of the game. One second, the UVa student section is grumbling about the cold weather, and the next second, they’re storming the field like the biggest fans in the history of college football. Unbelievable.
Anyway, if I’m Butch Davis, I would make sure that my starters know it: your starting spots are not guaranteed anymore. If RB Shaun Draughn does not produce in the early going (a disturbing trend for him), then I will not hesitate to put in Ryan Houston or even Jamal Womble. If it takes a few stern kicks to the rear to move this offensive offense out the tar, then so be it.
That being said, I would try to throw the ball more on first downs. Last week, we ran on 5 of the first 6 first downs, and then threw on all of the remaining first downs. That’s hardly an unpredictable offensive scheme, and against Al Groh’s sharp defensive mind, it will not succeed.
Defensively, I challenge UVa to run the ball on first downs. I just don’t think that they can do it. These guys couldn’t run on the Philadelphia Passion of the Lingerie Football League, so they really shouldn’t have much success against the Heels. Once the Cavs are in 3rd and long situations, I’d sit back in a zone (with ends in the “contain” position to neutralize the QB run) and make Sewell beat me with his arm.
Virginia Wins If…
- Jameel Sewell throws for 300 yards without turning the ball over
- The Cavaliers hold Shaun Draughn to under 40 yards rushing
- The Tar Heels turn the ball over 3+ times
(If Virginia Wins…)
- This blog will self-destruct.
- I will change my name and move to Iceland.
- UNC will not go bowling this year.
Score Prediction:
The Cavaliers are no strangers to bad starts. Last year, they started 1-3 before reeling off 4 consecutive wins and (temporarily) seizing control of the ACC Coastal Division. In 2007, they lost to Wyoming in the opener before winning 7 consecutive games and making an appearance in the Gator Bowl. To Al Groh’s credit (and deserving of another contract extension in my opinion)—the Hoos have done a great job of never giving up.
This game will come down to the intensity and execution of the Tar Heel offensive line. If these guys knock some Cavalier defenders off their horses (or if the Cavaliers just fall off of their horses), then the Tar Heels win in convincing fashion. If not, this one will be very, very close.
At this point, I still have faith that LT Kyle Jolly and QB TJ Yates can turn this offense around this week, leading the Tar Heels to a big win.
North Carolina 24 Virginia 13




