LSU GAME PREVIEW – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

September 2nd, 2010 by davidgiancaspro

LSU

Head Coach: Les Miles (51-15 in 5 seasons at LSU)

Famous LSU Alumni: Pete Maravich, Shaq, James Carville, Hubert Humphrey

Fun Facts:

1)      UNC’s not the only team in this matchup with a mascot derived from American military history. LSU’s nickname—“the Tigers”—comes from the name of a “rowdy” Confederate Brigade known as the Louisiana Tigers. But there’s a surprisingly un-Confederate beginning to the LSU story. The first Superintendent of LSU (in 1860) was actually William Sherman—the Union General infamous for his ruthless destruction of the Confederate States at the end of the Civil War.

2)      Both LSU and UNC feature some big-time “receiver underachievers.” North Carolina’s two, former five-star recruits at wide receiver—Greg Little and Dwight Jones— combined for just 5 receiving touchdowns in 2009, all by Greg Little. On the other hand, LSU’s three five-star recruits at wide receiver—Russell Shepard, Terrance Tolliver, and Rueben Randle—also combined for just five scores through the air in 2009, despite the fact that all three players were ranked as the #1 overall player at their position in high school!

3)      LSU’s “Tiger Stadium” holds 32,400 more fans than UNC’s Kenan Stadium, and once registered on the Richter Scale during a particularly loud 1980’s home game. But UNC filled its traditionally tame stadium with 6,790 more fans at its 2010 Spring Game than LSU, which brought just 22,710 fans to its final Spring scrimmage.

4)      The original LSU mascot—Mike the Tiger—cost just 750 dollars, but Mike VI, LSU’s current live Tiger mascot, lives in a 3 million dollar habitat on campus constructed in 2005.

5)      Mike VI eats approximately 15 pounds of meat daily—the equivalent of approximately 300 Chick-Fila chicken nuggets.

6)      Les Miles has gone 3-0 vs. the ACC since he came to Baton Rouge with wins against #9 Miami (2005), #9Virginia Tech (2007), and #14 Georgia Tech (2008)—two of which have come in Chick-Fila sponsored games. In these three southeast showdowns, the Bayou Bengals have Cool-Wrapped ACC opponents by an average score of 42 to 4, holding the ACC teams to an average of 205 yards of total offense.

7)      BUT! If the Tar Heels can somehow turn the tables and pick up a big lead on LSU, we’ll have the Georgia Dome to ourselves. The last time the Tigers trailed by 4 TD was against Troy in 2008. LSU rallied for an improbable 40-31 home victory, but did so with almost no Tiger fans remaining in the stadium. What was that about faithful SEC fans? And speaking of faithfulness and loyalty…

8)      The last time an LSU Coach lasted more than 5 seasons (other than Les Miles, who’s entering his 6th year under fire) was Charles McClendon who coached from 1962-1979.

Quotable:

“Last year was the most improper use of a freshman class i’ve ever seen. Les better wake the hell up.” —Isaac70065, posted on a YouTube video of Rueben Randle highlights

After back to back disappointing seasons, Les Miles isn’t on the hot seat; he’s in the tiger cage, covered in wounds (clock- management disaster at Ole Miss) and running out of time. But, “improperly used” sophomores Rueben Randle and Russell Shepard—as well as heralded redshirt freshmen Michael Ford, Sam Montgomery, Barkavious Mingo, and Kevin Minter—might have the talent to lift Les “Mad Hatter” Miles out of the cage and back into the good graces of LSU fans. A win against North Carolina would certainly help…

LSU Offense: Coordinator Gary Crowton

2009 Stats: 122.8 rushing yards/game (90th in the nation) + 181.8 passing yards/game (97th in nation) = 304.5 total yards per game (112th in the nation)

Scheme: Gary Crowton has been a part of some exceptional offensive teams, starting with Louisiana Tech’s explosive passing offense of the late 90’s. As Head Coach of BYU in 2001,       he presided over an offense that racked up 7,000 total yards and 80 touchdowns. He then helped turn Oregon’s offense into a top ten unit in 2004 and 2005. At LSU, Crowton has      engineered two of the four highest scoring seasons in Tiger history, including an unbelievably balanced offense in 2007 that won a national championship and, perhaps more impressively, racked up over 600 yards against a Bud Foster Virginia Tech defense early in the year. Schematically, Crowton’s offense reminds me of the Jimbo Fisher Florida                State offense we saw in Chapel Hill last season. It’s a multiple offense—meaning a lot of looks from the shotgun and I-formation—with a variety of wrinkles. Crowton relies on lots of pre-snap motion and misdirection to confuse defenses and get his skill players on the perimeter. Since he’s been at LSU, he’s busted out read-option, Wild-Tiger, and plenty of trick plays. Everett Withers will have lots of work to do to prepare for Crowton’s unit.

Quarterback:

JR—Jordan Jefferson (2166 passing yards, 62% completion, 17 TD, 7 INT; 137.2 passer     rating; 171 rushing yards, TD)

At 6’5 235 pounds, Jefferson looks like an NFL quarterback. He’s pretty mobile, too,  although sometimes his mobility hurts him more than it helps him. Jefferson’s been known to hang on to the football too long (leading to unnecessary sacks), due to his passiveness and his problems locating safeties in coverage. He doesn’t take a lot of risks (8 INT in 369 career attempts), but he doesn’t create a lot of big plays either. After a dreadful 8/23 performance in the LSU Spring Game, it’s still unclear whether the big 6’5 QB will be much better in 2010 than he was in his mediocre sophomore campaign.

JR—Jarrett Lee (16 of 40, 197 yards, TD; 92.9 passer rating)

Lee might be the most hated quarterback in the country (by his own fans), and not because of his unrivaled success on the gridiron. Jarrett “Pick 6” Lee set an NCAA record in 2008 for the most interceptions returned by opponents for touchdowns. If he ‘s forced into the game by a Jefferson injury, LSU will go into its offensive shell and probably not take many aerial shots at Carolina’s talented secondary.

MATCHUP:

UNC has struggled over the past three years to contain mobile quarterbacks such as       Christian Ponder (395 yards, 3 TD), Pat White (385 total yards, 3 TD), and Russell Wilson                  (539 pass yards, 6 TD, 0 INT in 2 games). Jefferson lacks the explosion and quickness that these quarterbacks had, but he’s mobile—and crafty—enough to cause UNC’s zone-heavy      defense problems in this game. If Carolina can knock Jefferson out of the game, Lee will struggle mightily for LSU, given his past troubles and his inability to throw on TULANE in            2009.

Running Back:

JR—Stevan Ridley (45 carries for 180 yards, 3 TD)

Ridley is a 5’11 235 lb former fullback with no 20 yard runs in 57 career carries. He got the bulk of the LSU carries towards the end of 2009, but was largely unable to capitalize on the     chances that he got, finishing with just 61 yards on 26 carries against Arkansas and Penn State combined. Much like Ryan Houston for UNC, Ridley doesn’t quite have the explosion to outshine poor offensive line play—which could be a big problem for LSU again in 2010.

SR—Richard Murphy (44 carries for 186 yards, 0 TD in 2008; long of 12 yards)

Murphy’s had a lot of injury problems over the years at LSU, and it’s kept him from emerging as anything more than a brief substitute for Jacob Hester, Charles Scott, or                           Keiland Williams. I don’t expect him to contribute much in this game, given that he’s never had more than 6 carries in a game during his LSU career and he’s recovering from his 2nd       ACL surgery. Still, Murphy wears #18, an honor at LSU reserved for the best all-around Tiger in the program (Jacob Hester and Richard Dickson were the last guys who had it) and he’s gotten a number of first team repetitions in practice this summer.

FR—Michael Ford (19 carries for 139 yards in LSU Spring Game)

Ford enters the season as the Tigers’ most interesting option at tailback. Rivals.com rated him the #59 overall recruit in the class of 2009, and it’s easy to see why. He’s an explosive    athlete who put up 100 yards in each of LSU’s 3 spring scrimmages while also posting a 42 inch vertical leap and bench pressing 425 pounds—more than anyone on LSU’s offensive line. Ford could be the guy to inject some life into a stagnant LSU running game, but I’m not sure that he will emerge as the number 1 guy this early in the season. He once rushed for 443 yards and 6 TD in a high school game.

FR—Spencer Ware (5 star recruit in class of 2010)

Ware is a phenomenal athlete and a tough runner. Rumor has it he might see some snaps out of the Wild-Tiger formation to rejuvenate the LSU offense. Since he’s a former QB,             UNC will have to respect his ability to pass in those situations.

MATCHUP:

Murphy and Ridley don’t scare me at all, though Ridley’s power could pose problems for the inexperienced defensive tackles of UNC. Ford, on the other hand, has apparently been          pretty impressive after redshirting in 2009. Given the Tar Heels’ exceptional front 7, you’d have to give the edge to UNC against the LSU running game, which finished 90th in the              nation last fall. That being said, I sure hope that Crowton and Miles lean on unspectacular    experience—meaning Murphy and Ridley—early and often vs. UNC because Ford looks            like LSU’s best chance at establishing the running game in 2010.

Wide Receiver/Tight End:

6’5 206 lb SR—-Terrance Tolliver (53 catches, 735 yards, 3 TD; former 5 star recruit)

Tolliver has played second fiddle to Brandon LaFell over the past two seasons, and in 2010 will be expected to emerge as the Tigers’ top receiving option. He hasn’t scored much (3  TD in 2009, 1 TD in 2008) at LSU given his enormous frame and strong leaping ability. Still, he’s a pretty dangerous receiver against UNC’s dominant, but diminutive defensive backs.

6’4 201 lb SOPH—Rueben Randle (11 catches, 173 yards, 2 TD; former 5 star recruit)

Randle underachieved a bit in 2009, catching only 11 passes after being the nation’s #1 recruit at wide receiver. Like Shepard, he played QB in his senior year of high school and                  struggled to adjust to the receiver position at the SEC level. He elevates well and started to come on later in the season with two crucial touchdown receptions against Ole Miss.

6’1 188 lb SOPH—Russell Shepard (5 catches 34 yards; 45 rushes 277 yards, 2 TD; former 5 star recruit at QB)

Shepard came out of high school in 2009 as the nation’s top quarterback, according to Rivals.com, but was converted to wide receiver last fall. Gary Danielson has called him a        “Percy Harvin-type athlete,” so it’s fair to expect him to get 10 touches per game in Gary Crowton’s offense in 2010. Surprisingly, Shepard has yet to throw a pass at LSU, but he                    has run the read option (as both a running back and QB) as well as a variety of QB draws  and sweeps. He’s extremely fast, but unproven as a downfield wide receiver, so expect most of his action in the passing game to come on middle and jailbreak screens. That’s not to say that Shepard won’t be a deep threat as well though, given his speed (4.36 in the 40  yard  dash) and leaping ability (41.5 inch vertical leap).

TE 6’4 240 lb JR—DeAngelo Peterson (5 catches 82 yards, 2 TD)

Peterson was a receiver coming out of high school—and a good one at that—-but he’s not yet proven himself as a blocker. Still, he scored against Alabama last year and has the            route-running skills to cause lesser linebackers a bit of a problem in coverage.

TE 6’5 265 lb JR—Mitch Joseph (2 catches 18 yards)

Joseph is a powerful blocker without a lot of speed or smooth route running skills. Most likely, Joseph won’t get too many targets vs. UNC, but he could be LSU’s answer to Robert  Quinn. Watch for LSU to use Joseph to chip Quinn at the line of scrimmage to slow down his relentless pass rush.

MATCHUP:

This group has underachieved in the past, but I wouldn’t expect that trend to continue this year. Tolliver is a huge receiver with proven talent while Randle has similarly intimidating      stature and an increasing comfort with the LSU offense. New receivers coach Billy Gonzales, fresh from U of Florida, has experience using multi-purpose athletes at receiver               (Percy Harvin) and should be able to turn Russell Shepard into a more important part of the LSU offense. My main concern with this group is its size—both Tolliver and Randle will           have 6-7 inches of height on Tar Heel cornerbacks Kendric Burney and Charlie Brown.

Offensive Line

LT- Joseph Barksdale (SR)—26 career starts

LG- Josh Dvoraczyk (JR)—13 career starts

C- P.J. Lonergan (SOPH)—2 career starts

RG- Will Blackwell (JR)—no career starts

RT- Alex Hurst (SOPH)—no career starts

MATCHUP:

LSU ranks 10th in the SEC with just 41 returning starts along the offensive line. The Tigers lose a four year starter at left tackle in Ciron Black, a 2nd team All-American, as well as                 starting center T-Bob Hebert. Experienced RT Joseph Barksdale slides over to fill in for Black, but that means the right side of the line will feature zero returning starts, which is                  a bad, bad sign when lining up against Carolina defensive ends Robert Quinn, Quentin Coples, Donte Paige-Moss, and Michael McAdoo.

Offensive Game Plan:

Bad offenses tend to limp to the huddle, barely getting plays off and giving defenses a perfect chance to jump the snap and disrupt plays. (We Carolina fans know this from                          experience). LSU OC Gary Crowton wants to speed up the Tiger offense in 2010, and that means Jefferson getting out of the huddle faster. Crowton will try to use quick snaps, as                  well as some speed option plays from Shepard to resuscitate LSU’s lifeless running game. In passing situations, LSU will try to chip Robert Quinn with tight end Mitch Joseph and                 whatever running back is in the game at the time. Chances are, we’ll see Murphy, Ridley, and Ford carrying the rock for LSU.

LSU Defense: Coordinator John Chavis

2009 Stats: 133.4 rushing yards allowed/game (46th in the nation) + 194.2 passing yards   allowed/game (29th in the nation) = 327.6 total yards allowed per game (26th in nation)

36.7% 3rd down conversions allowed (8th in the SEC)

Scheme: 4-3

“We’re going to stop the run with numbers, we’re going to get more people in the box than they can block. And we’re going to rush the passer with speed.”

Defensive Line:

DE- Kendrick Adams (JR) and Barkavious Mingo (r-FR)

DT- Lazarius Levingston (SR) and Michael Brockers (r-FR)

DT- Drake Nevis (SR) and Josh Downs (SOPH)

DE- Lavar Edwards (SOPH) and Sam Montgomery (r-FR)

DL- Ego Ferguson (FR.)

MATCHUP:

If you’re looking for an explanation of LSU’s defensive drop off since the 2007 season, look no further than the defensive line, which finished 9th in the SEC in sacks in 2009. This              year’s unit returns some solid defensive tackles in Nevis (50 tackles, 11 TFL) and Levingston (8 TFL), but will depend on smaller, quicker and younger defensive ends to spark the pass rush. Sam Montgomery (4 star recruit, UNC target), Barkavious Mingo (4 star recruit) and Michael Brockers (4 star recruit) could very well be up to the challenge, especially when you consider how UNC’s offensive line struggled with smaller front fours(UConn, Florida State) in 2009.

Linebackers:

MLB- Kelvin Sheppard (SR) (110 tackles, 8 TFL, sack, INT; All-SEC first team); has played all three linebacker positions and is, according to Chavis, one of the smartest players he’s ever coached

OLB- Ryan Baker (JR) (17 tackles)—BROKEN JAW (might be back for this game)

OLB- Stefoin Francois (JR) (8 tackles)—former safety

Also: LB Kevin Minter (FR)—14 tackles in the Spring Game

MATCHUP:

Both of UNC’s outside linebackers—Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter—have more  consecutive starts than LSU’s outside linebackers have combined tackles in 2009. LSU                    loses Coleman, Riley and Cutrera (combined 260 tackles, 20 TFL, 5 sacks), and will have  a tough time replacing their experience. John Shoop might try to capitalize on LSU’s young LBs by using even more misdirection than usual, although Sheppard is fantastic at diagnosing run or pass.

Secondary:

CB- Morris Claiborne (SOPH) (only appeared in 7 games in 2009)

Claiborne doesn’t have a lot of game experience at cornerback, but he’s blessed with top end speed, and an All-American mentor at CB in teammate Patrick Peterson. A former 100            meter dash state champion (10.76), Claiborne will get picked on quite a bit when opponents choose to pass.

CB- Patrick Peterson (JR) (52 tackles, 2 INT; top CB prospect for NFL draft)

At almost 220 lbs, Peterson runs a 4.2 40 yard dash and has a 39 inch vertical. Plus, he’s a phenomenal cover-corner and a great open-field tackler. In other words, there won’t be a lot of throws in Peterson’s direction.

FS- Jai Eugene (SR)—(2 starts in 2009, both at CB)

SS- Brandon Taylor (JR)—(10 starts in 2009)

S- Craig Loston (5 star recruit in class of 2008)

MATCHUP:

The secondary looks like the strength of the LSU defense. Peterson is the best cornerback in the nation, and Claiborne, Taylor and Eugene have the speed and coverage skills to        blanket UNC’s relatively young wide receivers. UNC won’t throw at Peterson, so if   Claiborne can take away Boyd or Highsmith in man coverage, the Heels will have an awful                passing performance in the Georgia Dome. If Greg Little doesn’t play, UNC will need Josh Adams or Dwight Jones to step up big time!

Defensive Game Plan:

LSU’s defense struggled in 3rd and medium situations last fall, so to avoid those situations, the Tigers need to create some negative plays on first and second down. That means run- blitzing to take away Houston and Draughn and playing tight man-to-man coverage to force Yates (or Renner) to throw down the field (as opposed to higher percentage throws like WR bubble screens). Chavis has the talent and experience in the secondary to mix up coverages, but I expect him to stick with mostly man-to-man defense, relying on the speed of his young front four, the talent of his secondary, and the play recognition of his star   linebacker Kelvin Sheppard to cripple Carolina’s offensive strengths.

Special Teams:

K- Josh Jasper (17 of 20 FG; 6-8 from beyond 40 yards; long of 52 yards)

P- Derek Helton

KR-Ron Brooks

PR- Patrick Peterson

MATCHUP:

Carolina’s special teams will benefit from the returns of co-captains Ryan Taylor and Matt Merletti, both of whom missed 2009 with injuries after starring on special teams in             previous years. LSU and Carolina both have outstanding punt return and punt coverage teams, while neither team has particularly strong kickoff units. LSU’s kicker has more             range than Barth, but the Tigers suffer two enormous losses from their 2009 units in the departures of Trindon Holliday (18.9 yards/punt return) and Chad Jones (21 yards/punt                return). Explosive star CB Patrick Peterson could bring similar skills to the return game, but it seems that LSU is getting worse on special teams while UNC, who finally has some depth   on the roster, is getting faster and better.

OUTCOME:

LSU returns All-America candidates Patrick Peterson and Kelvin Sheppard on defense, but they lose a ton of talent from the 2009 team, including:

-  4 out of their top 5 tacklers

-  11.5 of their 21 sacks

-   7 out of their 13 interceptions

-   7 out of their 10 forced fumbles

-  13 out of their 22 QB hurries

So who makes the plays for the Tiger defense in 2010? The stars (Recruiting stars, that is) say that LSU’s redshirt freshmen will , but we Carolina fans know that young, highly touted      freshmen often don’t live up to the hype in the early going. If young players don’t deliver immediate results—especially at the linebacker position—Carolina’s offense could control     the clock and the game.

Offensively, LSU OC Gary Crowton has lots of toys to play with (Shepard, Tolliver, Ford),  but can’t seem to get them to shine behind an inconsistent offensive line. Fortunately      though, he’ll be throwing his usual curve balls and trick plays at what should be a very inexperienced Tar Heel defense that could be missing its top 6 players.

PREDICTED SCORE:

LSU 23 UNC 14

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Know Your Coastal Division Enemies- Virginia – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

September 1st, 2010 by davidgiancaspro

It would be easy to write the generic, 2010 UVa football preview. At the beginning, I would tell you how “prickly” coach Al Groh wore out his welcome after 9 years of moderate success in Charlottesville. Then, I’d introduce new coach Mike London, emphasize his youthful, optimistic personality, and mention his FCS national title as a University of Richmond coach. Lastly, after spending a moment discussing London’s switch from Groh’s 3-4 defense back to a more traditional 4-3 look, I’d tell you something like this: the Cavaliers are on the right track, but 2010 will be a rebuilding year for UVa. Yawn.

Instead, I want to play Devil’s advocate, since I didn’t exactly play Blue Devil’s advocate in my last preview, a wholesale (well, not entirely—I did compliment Cutcliffe and Duke’s receivers) dismissal of the Duke football program. Today, I’m going to give you a list of reasons why this Virginia team might not roll over like Cavalier teams of the past—and why a quick dismissal of the Cavaliers’ 2010 season might be unwise, at least at this point in the summer.

Let’s start with head coach Mike London, skipping through all the extraneous information. When London led Richmond to an FCS national title, his Spider teams dominated both lines of scrimmage behind big, mean tailbacks like Josh Vaughan and fast, feisty defenses. Groh might have been a connoisseur of the 3-4, but most of his teams lacked the necessary toughness on the lines to cut off the pulse of opponent’s running games in the 4th quarter. In the last ten seasons, Virginia Tech, however shaky its offensive line had been throughout the season, almost always managed to will rushing yards against Virginia, and that could be a reflection of Groh, an uptight, uninspiring presence on the sideline. London, if nothing else, comes to Virginia with a résumé full of tough football teams, and that’s huge for what’s been a Tempurpedic soft Cavalier program.

On the defensive line, the Cavaliers return 4 experienced, somewhat productive players, although Cam Johnson will be making the switch from 3-4 outside linebacker to 4-3 defensive end. In 2009, these guys—all just sophomores at the time—managed to slow down some pretty effective offenses, such as Clemson’s (CJ Spiller**) and BC’s (Montel Harris**FACT CHECK**). We North Carolina fans know from experience that the Cavaliers’ line (often called the “Maginot Line” by Techsideline writer “Bourbonstreet”), along with a linebacker corps headed by excellent sophomore Steve Greer, is capable of playing tough, inspired run defense. In 2009, they held our offensive line, which admittedly, was suffering through the worst rash of injuries imaginable, to a mere —– yards on the ground and 3 points on the scoreboard.

In what’s expected to be an offense-heavy ACC season, the Cavaliers could have one of the conference’s strongest defensive backfields. Ras-I Dowling (2nd team all-ACC) teams up with Chase Minnifield to make quite a duo at cornerback while Rodney McLeod and Corey Mosley return as starters at free and strong safety, respectively. If new starters Tucker Windle (what a UVa name!) and Jared Detrick develop into solid contributors at linebacker alongside Greer and the defensive line can stay fresh later into the season, I expect this Cavalier defense to actually be pretty tough, possibly top 40 or 50 in the nation.

Offensively, Cavalier fans should expect to see old-school, power running—or at least an attempt at it. They’ll return three massive, pretty steady offensive linemen in Landon Bradley, Austin Pasztor and BJ Cabbell and a couple of solid-blocking tight ends as well in Joe Torchia and Colter Phillips. At running back, no one has really stood out so far, but sophomore Torrey Mack (SPRING GAME?), labeled by Tiki Barber as the UVa back of the future, was a Parade-All American and could have a big year. Dominique Wallace (info) and Perry Jones (info) will also see some carries.

Now, on to the part that I cannot possibly delay any longer: the quarterback position. Much-maligned  QB Marc “Vertical” Verica enters his senior season with little fanfare, and deservedly so. In starting duty in 2008, he threw 8 TDs and 16 INTs in what was a pretty poor season. Still, as UNC fans know from painful personal experience, Verica has his moments. In 2008, Verica led a lifeless Cavs’ offense 82 yards in the final 1:30 against UNC’s defense, ultimately leading the Wahoos to a dramatic comeback win. That same season, he defeated ECU (8 wins?) and Georgia Tech (in Atlanta), while narrowly missing out on a home-win vs. Miami. He won’t be in the top half of ACC quarterbacks this fall, but if he “manages” games and avoids a lot of turnovers, he could possibly—maybe, maybe—lead UVa to 5 or 6 wins this fall.

So where, you might be asking, are those 5 or 6 wins on the UVa schedule? Well, I think the Cavaliers will probably beat a rebuilding Richmond team that London knows like the back of his hand, as well as dreadful FCS bottom-feeder VMI. That’s two! They will also defeat Ron English’s winless Eastern Michigan team, bringing them to 3 (unimpressive) wins on the season, and Ralph Friedgen’s walking-dead Maryland Terrapins, bringing them to 4. Additionally, due to the strength of their pass defense and a potentially respectable running game, I think Virginia could pick up another win at Duke’s Wallace-Wade Stadium, especially if Duke QB Sean Renfree struggles in the passing game this fall.

As for the sixth win, that gets a little bit more difficult to find. Still, considering that the Cavaliers held UNC to 3 points last fall in Chapel Hill and have beaten North Carolina 14 straight times in Scott Stadium, it’s not that farfetched to see UVa picking up another W in that matchup, as well. Lastly—and remember, I’m describing the Cavaliers’ perfect season here—you can’t discount the home match-up with Atlantic Division favorite Florida State, which might be looking ahead to its next game at Miami. Virginia has a strong passing defense which could slow down Christian Ponder and the ‘Noles. Plus, the Cavs have some big wins vs. FSU in the storied (ha) football history of  Scott Stadium (and not just the 1995, Warrick Dunn game). If FSU’s defense (15 underclassmen in its two deep) doesn’t show major improvement early in 2010, the Cavs’ might even be able to run the ball and control the clock against Jimbo Fisher’s defensive unit.

Virginia will not go to a bowl game, and will probably max out at about 5 wins this fall—only 3 of which will come against FBS opponents. Still, a tougher, more energetic, Cavaliers squad—featuring a pretty decent defense, good special teams and a solid offensive line, will surprise some people this fall. You heard it here first.

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Know Your Coastal Division Enemies- Virginia Tech – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

August 31st, 2010 by davidgiancaspro

For the first time since Bryan Randall’s junior year (2003), it appears that the Virginia Tech offense—not the defense or special teams—might carry Frank Beamer’s squad in 2010. In senior QB Tyrod Taylor (1st in ACC in passing efficiency), the Hokies have perhaps the nation’s best dual-threat quarterback, whose late-game heroics against a superb Nebraska defense demonstrated his unbelievable elusiveness and creativity in the passing game.

Still, Taylor might not be the most explosive player in his own backfield, thanks to running back Ryan Williams, a sure-fire first round draft pick with good hands, vision, and speed. After carrying the ball almost 300 times in 2009, Williams will split time with Virginia Tech’s last freshman sensation at tailback, Darren Evans, a power back (233 lbs) who also rushed for over 1,000 yards in his first year in Blacksburg before tearing his ACL in summer camp last August.

If the Hokies can rebuild the left side of the offensive line—which loses veteran talents Ed Wang (draft pick) and Sergio Render (draft pick), Evans and Williams could both hit the 1,000 yard mark, marking the first time a pair of Hokie tailbacks have reached that milestone since Kevin Jones and Lee Suggs did in 2002—though this offense will be far more balanced than the 2002 edition. Without a doubt, Evans’ return will give the Hokies’ a more physical presence in the running game. However, from a Carolina point of view, I’m glad that Evans—a solid but much less elusive tailback—returns to the backfield because whenever he touches the ball, that’s one carry less for Williams, who’s the more dangerous of the two runners.

It’ll be interesting to see if Virginia Tech offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring will try putting both backs on the field at the same time, especially from a shotgun, 2-back look. Even if he doesn’t, the Hokies’ I-formation and Shotgun-split sets will still feature 3 very capable runners—Taylor, Evans or Williams, and fullback Josh Oglesby (335 yards), a strong runner shifted away from the backlog at tailback to provide some burst to the fullback position. Look for Stinespring to call some triple option plays out of the 2-back shotgun formation—ala Rich Rodriguez—to take advantage of this abundance of running talent.

Taylor, who improved markedly as a passer in 2009, will throw to a group of receivers that could be the best, or at least the deepest, in school history. Jarrett Boykin (835 yards, 20.9 yards per catch), Danny Coale (614 yards, 20.5 yards per catch), and Dyrell Roberts (390 yards) have speed and experience, while younger wideouts Marcus Davis (80 yard TD in 2009) and Xavier Boyce have shown tons of potential as well. In many ways, this group reminds me of another Hokie foursome at wide receiver: Eddie Royal, Josh Morgan, Josh Hyman, and Justin Harper, three of whom now play on Sundays.

Defensively, Bud Foster has a lot of work to do to turn this lineup into the usual, dominant Hokie stop-unit after key players Stephan Virgil, Kam Chancellor (5th round pick), Cody Grimm (12.5 TFL, 7 forced fumbles), Nekos Brown (6.5 sacks), and Jason Worilds (2nd round pick)have moved on. If I were a Virginia Tech fan, I’d be most concerned about the front 7, which lacks the depth (freshmen are listed #2 on the depth chart at both defensive end spots) and cat-quick pass rushers typical of Foster defenses. Defensive tackle John Graves is the only proven commodity on the interior line, where defensive line Coach Charley Wiles will probably use only 3 players this fall.

At linebacker, Barquell Rivers (96 tackles) returns to the starting lineup—although after tearing his quadriceps in March, he might not be back at full strength at the beginning of the year, which could open up a major opportunity for former 4 star recruit Bruce Taylor. Lyndell Gibson (5 starts) didn’t see a ton of snaps last fall, but he played significant minutes late in the season, so at least 2 out of the three linebacker spots should be solid. Jeron Gouevia-Winslow or Alonzo Tweedy will man the third spot after having played very little in their first seasons in Blacksburg. If that’s the case, the Hokies will start 3 sophomore linebackers.

In the secondary, there’s a lot of experience, and little need to worry. Kam Chancellor, arguably Virginia Tech’s best athlete on defense last year, struggled to cover quicker slot receivers throughout his career and has moved on to the NFL. His replacement, Eddie Whitley (6’1, 191 lb) is faster and quicker and might be an upgrade for the defense at free safety in 2010. At cornerback, senior Rashad Carmichael (6 INT) will become the next in a long line of dominant defensive backs at Virginia Tech, following in the footsteps of DeAngelo Hall, Brandon Flowers, Macho Harris, and Stephan Virgil. The rest of the defensive backfield—headed by rover Davon Morgan—should be very fast and very athletic. Jayron Hosley, who takes over at the difficult boundary corner position, and Cris Hill are two of the fastest players on the team.

Virginia Tech faces an extremely unbalanced schedule in 2010. They’ll start off with a pseudo-home game at FedEx Field in Landover, MD against #3 Boise State, which could be the toughest game they play all season.

Boise State returns the most accurate quarterback in the nation, three dynamic tailbacks (two who have reached 1,000 yards in a season and another one who scored 15 touchdowns last fall), a fullback who caught 3 touchdowns in a game, two all-conference receivers (each with double digit touchdowns in 2009), and the Fiesta Bowl MVP in tight end Kyle Efaw—all of these playmakers will line up behind an offensive line that surrendered only 5 sacks in 2009 and returns all five starters! Boise State also will bring loads of trick plays to FedEx Field, which will test a young and inexperienced Hokie defense. To compete with Boise State, Virginia Tech might have to lean on its offense—which will face a smallish Boise State defense that returns 10 starters (including a DE with 9 sacks)—because Boise State could have a significant edge on special teams as well, as they feature a fantastic return game (Avery, Harper # of TDs) and a solid kicking game, too. (Virginia Tech, on the other hand, will start a new kicker and punter in this game).

If the Hokies can pull out a win against Boise State, they will be 3-0 heading into their next difficult game at Boston College where they have not played well in recent years. A date with NC State the next weekend could be a shootout, given NC State’s explosive offense and the Hokies lack of a proven pass rush and inexperience in the back 7. After that game, the Hokies enjoy three more freebies—home dates with Central Michigan, Wake Forest and Duke—before heading into the meat of their schedule, which will determine the success of their 2010 campaign.

Fortunately for Virginia Tech, five cupcake encounters up to this point—JMU, ECU, CMU, Wake Forest, and Duke—should give the team plenty of time to grow before this trying stretch that starts with a home date vs. Georgia Tech and ends with critical trips to Chapel Hill and Miami.

Bryan Stinespring, who’s been the brunt of more explosive anger in Blacksburg than Lee Corso’s rental car, has finally crafted a terrific offense in 2010. Once again, the patient Frank Beamer can say, “I told you so” as he watches Stinespring’s offense threaten to become one of a handful of teams in college football that average 200 yards through the air and on the ground per game. If Nick Becton plays well at left tackle, expect the Hokies to reach that milestone and finish in the top 30 in the nation in total offense.

Defensively, Virginia Tech loses too many playmakers to have a typical top 10 defensive season. Foster loses his best tackler (Cody Grimm), his best pass-rushers (Nekos Brown and Jason Worilds), his most experienced and athletic defensive back (Kam Chancellor) and his best cornerback in Stephan Virgil. The replacements should be solid but I don’t know that they can survive Boise State, a two game road trip to Boston and Raleigh, and the three consecutive matchups with Coastal contenders in Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Miami. I expect Virginia Tech to lose two to three games this fall—one to Boise State, and two out of the five games (@ NCSU, @ BC, GT, @ UNC, @ Miami) in a trying ACC stretch. Still, it’ll be another double-digit winning season for Frank Beamer and the Hokies.

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Know Your Coastal Division Enemies- Miami – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

August 28th, 2010 by davidgiancaspro

Once again, school’s out for the summer, the weather’s gotten steamy hot, and Miami football is “back.” Yawn.

Just like they were back last year (9 wins, Champs Sports Bowl loss). Just like they were back the year before (7 wins, Emerald Bowl loss). Just like they’ve been back many times since the 2002 BCS National Championship Game loss vs. Ohio State—a game that signaled the rise of Tressel’s Buckeye program and the fall of a once invincible Miami Empire.

This time though—it’s not just Hurricane players throwing up arrogant U’s and Brent Musburger spewing out animated ‘wow’s—legitimate publications such as the Sporting News have placed Randy Shannon’s squad in the preseason top 5. But can Miami deliver on the hype this time? Or will the Hurricanes spin off harmlessly again, losing all of their preseason storm surge during a brutal three-game trip inland?

Miami QB Jacory Harris had a good, but not great, season in 2009, tossing 24 touchdowns and leading Miami to its best record since 2005. Harris, who had some Heisman momentum in the early going last fall, is considered a front-runner for the award once again this fall—not only will he be playing under the same offensive system for the 2nd straight year (after playing in different systems his first two years), he will also be throwing to the same talented group of receivers once again, in what’s expected to be an offense-heavy ACC.

But Miami’s offense has its share of concerns as well. No one doubts Harris’ talent, but after throwing 17 interceptions last fall, including 4 crucial interceptions in a loss to North Carolina, the junior quarterback showed he’s not quite polished in the passing game. Additionally, Harris took 35 sacks in 2009, a scary figure for Miami fans given Harris’ bean-pole build, the Hurricanes’ lack of experience at the backup quarterback positions, and the unproven offensive line—which will start an underclassmen in at least one tackle position this fall. With games against the dominant defensive lines of North Carolina, Clemson, Ohio State, and Pittsburgh—most of which will be played early in the season—that could be very bad news for Mark Whipple’s Miami offense, even if one of those young starters at tackle is super-star offensive line recruit Seantrel Henderson—considered the best recruit in the nation by many scouts— who recently decommitted from USC.

Most skill position players return, including the ACC’s best WR group in Hankerson, Byrd, Benjamin and Collier, but the few losses will hurt. The ‘Canes lose mismatch tight-end Jimmy Graham (6’8, 4 TD), as well as top RBs Graig Cooper (knee) and Javarris James. I’d guess that the running game will once again be shaky. Damien Berry (stats) ran effectively late in the season, but was behind Cooper and James on the depth chart for a reason; he lacks the burst that those backs brought to the draws and screens so important in Whipple’s offensive playbook. As usual, there’s plenty of young running back talent behind Berry (especially aptly named Storm Johnson), but Shannon has been reluctant to use freshmen backs in recent seasons.

Defensively, Miami should be solid, if it can stay healthy. If not, I’d expect the “year of the offenses” to take its toll on a defense that surrendered over 22 points per game last fall, including 27 points per game in ACC play! Allen Bailey, Marcus Robinson, and Marcus Forston lead what should be the ACC’s deepest defensive line. At the linebacker position, Miami returns plenty of speed, talent, and experience as well. Interestingly, some have pegged Miami’s secondary as the strength of the defense, but I’m not sure I agree. In 2009, the Canes surrendered 207 yards per game in the air and 14 touchdowns, while snagging just 9 interceptions. They do return three starters, including 2nd team All-ACC cornerback Brandon Harris, but I’m not convinced that this unit can stop some of the better passing attacks in the ACC—unless the return of Owomo (who missed 2009 with a jaw injury) provides an extra burst to the Miami pass rush.

After a breeze of a warm-up vs. Florida A&M, Miami travels to the Horseshoe to take on Ohio State and one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the country. If they want to prove Miami football is BACK, that’s the game to do it in, since OSU has won 10 or more games in five straight seasons. Next, they’ll travel to Pittsburgh to take on a powerful Pittsburgh squad with a mean pass rush (1st in nation in sacks in 2009) and an even meaner running game headed by sophomore stud Dion Lewis. Then, it’s off to Clemson—who knocked off the Hurricanes in Coral Gables last fall—before the 4 game gauntlet ends with a visit from Jimbo Fisher’s Florida State Seminoles.

Miami isn’t “back” and probably won’t ever be in such a competitive Coastal Division—but they should have an excellent season. An excellent season with this schedule though might mean only 8 or 9 wins. Troubles in the secondary and the offensive line will cause Miami to trip up a few times, probably in the early going. But if the offensive line doesn’t develop quickly or Harris gets injured, this team could peak at just 7 or 8 wins, which would make for some major tropical depression in Coral Gables.

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Know Your Coastal Division Enemies- Georgia Tech – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

August 27th, 2010 by davidgiancaspro

With one more year of data in the books, it’s starting to look one rumor about GT’s option offense is true, at least partially—the more time you have to prepare for it, the better you can defend it. Georgia Tech has posted a 2-4 record in two seasons against teams who had more than a week to practice before playing the Rambling Wreck (i.e., 1st game on Sep. 4th, the 2nd game vs GT on the 18th), as opposed to their 18-3 record when opponents played their previous game 7 days before or sooner.

Unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets’ opponents, usually only two or three lucky teams get extra time (or bye weeks) before facing Georgia Tech each year, and even for those teams there’s no guarantee of a W—just ask Georgia, who gave up 400+ rushing yards to GT in 2008 after having two weeks to prepare for their innovative triple-option attack.

Although you might have a better chance against GT with extra time to prepare, cocky GT Coach Paul Johnson’s right when he says you won’t get better at defending his offense the more you’ve seen it—Virginia Tech, UNC, Duke, and Virginia all struggled to contain the quirky option attack in 2009 after holding it in check in 2008. Last fall, Clemson managed to shut down the Jackets for the second half of their game in September, only to give up 39 points and a boatload of yards when they played again in a wild and crazy ACC title game.

Hopefully, for the sake of the ACC Coastal Division defenses, Johnson’s wrong when he says the loss of all-star B-Back Jonathan Dwyer (accolades here) will be minimal for the methodical machine that is his mind-numbing, hair-pulling triple option attack. But history, in Johnson’s case 29 years of successful option football, says he’ll be right.

Don’t be surprised if new-B-back  6’0 239 lb senior back Anthony Allen (stats) who averaged almost 10 yards per carry in 2009, has better production in 2010 than Dwyer had last fall; Allen has better speed (82 yard TD vs. Clemson) and more experience running on the perimeter. He’ll be taking the bulk his carries from the chest of the ACC’s toughest player, senior QB Joshua Nesbitt, who has ducked, weaved, and bowled over ACC defenses to the tune of 2,000 yards in 2 years of triple option-football. There’s no QB (or any back for that matter) in college football over the last 5 years—barring maybe Tim Tebow—who I’d rather have on a third or fourth down and short situation.* Yes, Nesbitt is that good at what he does.

Nesbitt, who will be running behind an experienced offensive line, might also have a more statistically productive year in 2010 due to the early departure of big-play wide receiver DeMaryius “Georgia Tech’s Entire Passing Game” Thomas, who was responsible for a higher percentage of his team’s passing yardage than any other player in the country. No GT receiver will have the kind of season Thomas had last year, but no one will need to, either. Stephen Hill and Tyler Melton, both good athletes in their own right, should be able to fill in well enough for Big #8. Speedy A-backs Embry Peeples (8 catches for 244 yards, TD) and Roddy Jones (19.8 yards per catch in 2008) have been effective (if not prolific) catching and running out of the A-back position and should have pretty strong junior seasons as well—even through the air, where they’ve combined to average over 20 yards per catch during their careers.

Defensively, the Jackets played terribly in 2009, surrendering almost 25 points per game against a mediocre offensive conference. This year, the pressure’s on new defensive coordinator Al Groh to tighten up the Jackets’ proverbial sweatshirt with his new 3-4 defensive system. Many analysts, me included, have forecasted the year of the offense in the ACC, and if Groh can’t get this defense ready, the Jackets could get torched by potent offenses at VT, NCSU, Miami, and Georgia. The defense does return 8 starters—9 if you count 2008 starter Cooper Taylor—although I’m not sure if that means a whole lot given the switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defensive scheme, the poor play of the defense in 2009, and the loss of the Jackets’ two best defensive players in DE Derrick Morgan and S Morgan Burnett. Still, at the very least, Georgia Tech will have a better defensive coordinator (Groh), a more experienced back 7, and another strategic complexity (the 3-4 defense) that will require extra time and attention from opposing coaching staffs—time that won’t be spent developing more anti-triple option defense systems (ATODS) in defensive war rooms.

Georgia Tech squeaked out more than a few close games in 2009, and in 2010, I think the magic runs out. Virginia Tech (11 days), Middle Tennessee State (11 days), UNC (14 days), Georgia (14 days) and NCSU (9 days) have bye weeks or extra time to prepare before playing Paul Johnson’s team—no doubt that was a popular scheduling request this offseason—and as the statistics show, that’s a bad sign for Georgia Tech. (Don’t count out an upset by Middle Tennessee State either. They won 10 games in 2009 and have given some of Groh’s UVa teams all they can handle). Additionally, games at Clemson and vs. Miami could be problematic, as both teams played the Jackets’ very well in 2009. Ultimately, I think Georgia Tech wins anywhere between 7 and 9 games, depending on the growth of the defense and the health of Nesbitt, who’s taken a beating over the past two seasons.

Paul Johnson’s team might dip a bit this season—but as the team continues to adjust to Groh’s 3-4 defense, they will only become MORE annoying to play in years to come.

For Christmas this season, I think we should give Georgia Tech to the SEC East—our conference prestige might drop off a bit, but I don’t think defensive coordinators (and the knees of our defensive players) would mind a bit!

*other candidates, for the sake of fun: Jacob Hester, LSU (2007); Steve Slaton, WVU (2007); LenDale White, USC (2006); Jovorskie Lane, Texas A&M (2007)

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Know Your Coastal Division Enemies: Duke – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

August 25th, 2010 by davidgiancaspro

When Duke jumped out to a 5-3 start last fall, I almost, almost believed that David Cutcliffe had the coaching know-how to turn Durham’s gridiron Dust Devils into a perennial—or at least occasional—bowl team. Unfortunately for Thad Lewis and Duke, an utter lack of defensive talent and overall team size and speed undid the Devils in 2009, sending them to four consecutive losses vs. UNC, GT, Wake Forest, and Miami to close Cutcliffe’s 2nd season. When the dust settled, all Duke had to show for its “breakthrough” year was a 5-7 record and another extra long, football-free winter break.

If 5-7 is a “breakthrough” season at Duke, you can imagine what “rebuilding years” are like in Durham. After the graduation of super QB Thad Lewis, DT Vince Oghobaase, LB Vincent Rey, and DE Ayanga Okpokowuruk, David Cutcliffe is about to find out first hand just how hard it is to rebuild such a perennially shanty program without the SEC lumber he’s used to having at his disposal.

But the offense, if sophomore QB Sean Renfree (4 star recruit) recovers well from ACL reconstruction surgery, shouldn’t need much rebuilding, at least in the passing game. Austin Kelly, Donovan Varner, and Conner Vernon—all of whom snagged 50 or more passes in 2009—form one of the ACC’s best receiving units—-although without Lewis tossing them the potato, who knows how they’ll play in 2010? Sustaining their 2009 success depends on avoiding injuries (all three have been nicked up in summer camp) and the development of Renfree, who almost certainly will not play at Lewis’ level. Also important will be the growth of the nation’s worst rushing offense, which averaged just 63.5 yards per game last fall.

The Devils’ pass-happy one-back offense, modeled in some ways after the Colts’ offense, doesn’t need a 1,000 yard, or even a 500 yard back, to be an effective ACC attack. What it does need, however, is a running game that can break open just enough draws, stretches  and counter plays to keep a defense honest the way Donald Brown and Joseph Addai—who averaged a meager 3.5 to 4 yards per carry in 2009—have been able to do for Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts. In 2009, Duke’s longest run after 8 games (not including their game vs. 2-6 FCS squad, NC Central) was 17 yards, which is to say the Devils couldn’t run on a treadmill, let alone an ACC defense. When they faced tougher Coastal Division foes, this lack of balance sent them careening down the stairs towards the ACC Coastal Division cellar, where, thanks to Virginia, they landed on the second to last step.

At tailback, Duke features diminutive scatbacks Desmond Scott, Jay Hollingsworth, Patrick Kurunwune and Joshua Snead, a fleet footed freshman coming into Durham with a 4-star rating from Rivals.com. As I said last year, Duke’s running backs would all be pretty effective third down backs, but when it comes to grinding out yards against a tough defensive front 7, forget about it. Unless Snead is hiding a lot of power in his 168 pound frame, that won’t change this fall. Balance doesn’t always matter for offenses, especially in the college game, but it’s hard to imagine a first-time starter like Renfree having a good season with zero running game to fall back on.

Duke does return 4 starters on the offensive line (as well as two talented tight ends in Brent Huffman and Brandon King), but, like the tailbacks, they’re somewhat undersized and physically overwhelmed against powerful defensive fronts that KNOW the pass is coming. Center Bryan Morgan (255 lbs) and RG Brian Moore (275 lb) have been fairly effective pass blockers, but both players lack the power to make up for the 30+ pounds they will give up against elite Coastal Division defensive tackles like UNC’s Marvin Austin.

Defensively, Duke also lacks the size and power to compete for a Coastal Division title. Even with Oghobaase and Rey—two of the best defensive players in school history— the Devils gave up 164 rushing yards to unspectacular UNC tailback Ryan Houston in a 19-6 loss in Chapel Hill last fall. Without these two defensive anchors, expect Virginia Tech, Miami, UNC, Georgia Tech, Navy, Alabama (I can’t wait to watch this game), and Boston College to have similarly dominant performances against Duke’s defensive front this fall.

Cutcliffe’s Devils have certainly improved since his arrival. Not only do they have a trio of talented wide receivers that could start almost anywhere, they also have one of the best special teams units in the ACC. Still, because of their smaller, weaker lines, Duke’s talented receivers and defensive backs will not produce at the level they are capable of. When opposing defenses don’t have to honor the running game, QBs get pounded and receivers have less time to get open. When a defense can’t stop the run, defensive backs have to creep towards the line of scrimmage, opening up the vertical passing game for your opponents.

With a schedule that includes games vs. defending national champion Alabama, rapidly-improving Army, powerful Miami, consistent BC, and defensive-minded UNC—as well as a trip to Blacksburg (VT) and two road games vs. brutally effective triple option offenses—Anapolis (Navy) and Atlanta (GT)—Cutcliffe’s rebuilding Duke squad will be lucky to escape this fall with 5 wins.

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Carolina Football Preview Part 8: Special Teams – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

August 23rd, 2010 by davidgiancaspro

2009 Grade: C

2010 Grade: B-

K- Casey Barth- Barth has put up some impressive numbers at Carolina (84% FG in 2009), but he just doesn’t inspire confidence in me the way his older brother did. He lacks the leg strength to be effective outside of 45 yards (his career long is 42!), and all of his closer field goals seem dangerously low, like the one that NCSU blocked late in 2009.

P- Grant Schallock- Other than an unbelievable neck tackle on Virginia Tech’s Jayron Hosley, Schallock had a pretty forgettable season. Many of his punts turned over—horizontally—making them difficult to return (no one seemed to want to catch these wobbling attempts), but also short (average of 40.3 yards) and difficult to place.

PR- Da’Norris Searcy- Searcy finished in the top 5 in the nation in punt returns last fall, averaging 14.6 yards per return.  He also averaged 23 yards per kickoff return.

KR- Charlie Brown/Greg Little- I’d like to see the coaching staff insert some new faces   here—to try to inject some explosiveness into the return game AND to avoid a potentially  devastating injury to Greg Little or Charlie Brown. I think Jheranie Boyd and Hunter Furr (who finished 1 and 2 in the NC high school 100 m dash in 2008) could make for a dynamic          returning duo.

Kick Blocking

After blocking 4 consecutive punts (that HAS to be an NCAA record—maybe even a record for the sport of football—in general!) in 2008, Bruce Carter didn’t get a hand on a kick this past fall. One of the big defensive linemen got a paw on a field goal vs. ECU, but other than that, the Heels didn’t block any kicks in 2009.

Two of our kicks—one punt and one field goal—were blocked in 2009, although both blocks came in key rivalry games. Duke smothered a punt early against Carolina while NCSU knocked down Casey Barth’s attempted game winner in the regular season finale. I have to think that this is an area where four years of Butch Davis recruiting starts to come in handy. Better athletes, better chances to block a few kicks in 2010.

Kick Coverage:

One underrated storyline this fall will be the return of special teams captains Ryan Taylor and Matt Merletti to the punt and kickoff units. Both had spectacular 2008 seasons on special teams and should provide an immediate boost to the team. Their injuries in 2009 afforded players like Shane Mularkey and Hunter Furr (perhaps the fastest player on the team) great opportunities to develop into strong contributors on special teams as well.

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Carolina Football Preview Part 7: The Defensive Backfield – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

August 22nd, 2010 by davidgiancaspro

2009 Grade: B+

2010 Grade: A-

Much like Carter and Sturdivant, defensive backs Kendric Burney, Charlie Brown, and Deunta Williams were forced into action as freshmen in 2007. The results, at times, were ugly, as the young defensive backs got torched by strong quarterbacks like Patrick Pinkney, Matt Grothe and Riley Skinner throughout the season.

Three years later, though, I’m sure that all three relish the opportunities they had to hone their skills on the real field, in game situations. Burney (52 tackles, 5.5 TFL, sack, 5 INT, 200 INT return yards) and Williams (47 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 6 INT) have used their early experience to grow into All-ACC selections, while Brown (66 tackles, 3 TFL, 3 INT) has also become a formidable part of the defensive backfield and a likely NFL draft pick. These three players, two of whom will be starting for the 4th straight season, are joined in the secondary by another senior, safety Da’Norris Searcy (35 tackles, TFL, INT) who has ample playing experience (14 starts) in his own right.

Burney, Brown, Williams and Searcy have locked down starting spots—but there are still plenty of opportunities for other defensive backs to contribute this season for Carolina. In showdowns with ECU (which is installing a Texas Tech style, 4-5 wide offense under Ruffin McNeil), Florida State (QB Christian Ponder had 390+ yards passing @ UNC in 2009), NCSU (Russell Wilson + 3 dangerous receivers), Duke (3 very talented receivers in Varner, Kelly and Vernon), and Virginia Tech (using a lot of shotgun, 3-wide looks in recent years), Carolina will use its nickel and dime packages frequently. Matt Merletti, a special teams contributor recovering from an ACL tear, as well as sophomore Mywan Jackson will be battling sophomore cornerback Gene Robinson (who saw some experience as a true freshman last fall) for the nickel cornerback job. A few incoming freshmen might work their way into the nickel package as well.

Just as I expect Okakpu, Guy and Brown to see a lot of snaps at linebacker, I expect Everett Withers to give young defensive backs Jackson, Robinson, and Josh Hunter every chance possible to get some experience this year— (don’t expect this experience to come in close game situations, at least not at the main cornerback spots). If these guys don’t see the field much this fall, we’ll be in trouble in 2011 after the departure of all four starters in the secondary!

As good as this unit was in 2009, there’s still clear need for improvement. Florida State tomahawked the Tar Heel secondary to the tune of 395 yards, while NC State’s Russell Wilson diced the Heels’ back 4 for four touchdowns and no interceptions. Given their experience, as well as their NFL aspirations, I don’t think the UNC secondary will give up any performances like that in 2010.

2010 Projected Statistics:

CB- Burney- (50 tackles, 4 TFL, 4 INT)

CB- Brown (47 tackles, 3 TFL, 3 INT)

S- Williams (40 tackles, 6 INT)

S- Searcy (36 tackles, 5 INT)

CB- Jackson (3 INT)

ACC Coastal Defensive Back Rankings

1)      UNC

2)      Miami

3)      Virginia

4)      Virginia Tech

5)      Georgia Tech

6)      Duke

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Carolina Football Preview Part 6: Linebackers – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

August 20th, 2010 by davidgiancaspro

2009 Grade: A-

2010 Grade: A

In 2007, Butch Davis and the defensive coaching staff put then-freshman Bruce Carter on the field to give a desperate defense a much-needed dose of athleticism. Three years later, a smarter, much more experienced Carter (65 tackles,7.5 TFL, 2 sacks, INT—26 straight starts ) has blossomed into a 2nd team All-ACC linebacker and perhaps the best athlete at any position in the nation.

ESPN.com’s Bruce Feldman, citing Carter’s 4.39 40, 40.5 inch vertical leap, and 440 lb bench press, recently selected Bruce as college football’s top athlete, the second Tar Heel linebacker to be honored by Feldman in the past two years. The other such linebacker, junior Zach Brown (47 tackles, 4 TFL, INT—named by Feldman as one of college football’s top ten athletes last fall) —a sprinting champion at 220 lbs)—doesn’t even start after losing his spot  to sophomore Kevin Reddick (45 tackles, 5.5 TFL) who has since moved to inside linebacker.

Oh, and the third starting linebacker? Well, that’s just senior linebacker and 4 year starter Quan Sturdivant (79 tackles, 12 TFL, sack, FF) who led the nation in solo tackles in 2008, before earning All-ACC honors at the outside linebacker spot last fall. Like Carter, Sturdivant has been pegged as a potential first round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

As you can tell, there’s no shortage of talent in the middle of the field for Butch Davis and the Tar Heels. But with so much returning experience at the position, how will the position be different in 2010?

I expect to see a few changes for the linebackers in 2010.

1)       More blitzing! Since his arrival in 2008, Defensive Coordinator Everett Withers has grown steadily more comfortable with his linebackers’ command of the blitz packages. UNC blitzed a lot more in 2009 than in 2008, and with two extremely experienced linebackers leading the unit in 2010, expect the number of blitzes to go up even more.

2)      More negative plays! Carter, Sturdivant, Reddick and Brown combined for 29 TFL last season. As these guys (especially the younger Reddick) become more comfortable with the defensive system this year, expect even more tackles for loss and sacks to come from the linebackers. Also, given the strength of the pass rush and the secondary, teams will try to run at Carolina more this year, leading to even more opportunities for negative plays.

3)      More depth! Zach Brown, Ebele Okakpu, and Dion Guy will see more snaps this year for a few reasons: first of all, they’re older, smarter, and more qualified to see the field; second of all, they’ll help keep Carter, Sturdivant, and Reddick fresh for the end of the season; third of all, by playing these guys this fall, the transition to life without Bruce and Quan will be a lot smoother in 2011!

If there’s a weak link (or weakER link, I should say)in this position group, it’s Reddick, who mans the middle for UNC. He’s done well so far, but, due to the speed of Carter and Sturdivant on the outside and the relative inexperience of the backup defensive tackles, I expect teams to run right down the middle—right at Reddick— in the early going this year. If he holds up well, as I think he will, then this defense could be the best in the country.

2010 Projected Statistics

LB- Sturdivant (85 tackles, 10 TFL, 3 sacks, INT)

LB- Carter (68 tackles, 8 TFL, 4 sacks, 2 INT)

LB- Reddick (60 tackles, 6 TFL, sack)

LB- Brown (40 tackles, 3 TFL)

ACC Coastal Linebacker Rankings

1)      UNC

2)      Miami

3)      Georgia Tech

4)      Virginia Tech

5)      Virginia

6)      Duke

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Carolina Football Preview Part 5: The Defensive Line – David Giancaspro of Tarheeltds

August 19th, 2010 by davidgiancaspro

Defensive Line

2009 Grade: A-

2010 Grade: A-

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that UNC Defensive Line Coach John Blake—despite his current debacle with the NCAA—has been almost as big of a factor in Carolina’s football resurgence as Head Coach Butch Davis. Three years ago, the burly Blake hauled in some of Carolina’s key recruits including Marvin Austin and Greg Little. Since then, he’s signed a number of other key Carolina players—too many to list here—and established himself as one of the best recruiters in the country.

As defensive line coach, Blake has turned what was once a slow, out-of-shape front four into the heart of the Carolina football program. This boisterous group, often seen dancing around during pre-game warm-ups, is deep, dominant, and bursting with NFL potential.

The Carolina defensive ends might be the best in the country. Speedy, 6’5 junior Robert Quinn racked up 19 TFL and 11 sacks in 2009, good enough to earn first team All-ACC honors. At the other starting end position, junior Michael McAdoo (4 sacks, INT in the Spring Game—7 TFL in 2009) brings size and impressive athletic ability as well; his diving interception of a tipped pass in the Spring Game was incredible. Two other scary defensive ends will see plenty of work in John Blake’s substitution-heavy rotation: 6’6 junior Quentin Coples (6.5 TFL, 5 sacks), a lanky and disruptive force with quite a bit of experience, as well as sophomore Donte Paige-Moss (5 tackles, 2 sacks), a former 5 star recruit and pass-rushing specialist rated by Rivals.com as the 16thbest high school player in the nation in 2008. Quinn, Coples, and McAdoo all saw big improvements in their sophomore years (after playing as true freshmen), and I expect similar growth this year from Paige-Moss who disappointed a bit in 2009 but has added 35 pounds of muscle since coming to UNC.

The only concern for the ends could be the power running game—2009 graduate, 290 lb. EJ Wilson (12 TFL, NFL draft pick) didn’t provide much of a pass rush last fall, but he was a bigger, much more powerful run-stopper than Coples (280 lb), McAdoo (245 lb) and Moss (260 lb) have been so far early in their careers, although McAdoo and Moss have bulked up in the offseason.

At the defensive tackle position, Carolina is also strong, although not nearly as deep. Massive senior tackle Marvin Austin (42 tackles, 6 TFL, 4 sacks; Mel Kiper’s #1 rated DT) demands constant double teams, while co-starter Tydreke Powell (4-star recruit in 2007; 24 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 sacks in 2009) has loads of talent and experience as well. Powell is best known for forcing a fumble by Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams that led to the Heels’ upset win in Blacksburg last fall.

Backing up Austin and Powell will be a talented but far less experienced group, a group that will struggle to match the production of recently graduated buffet-busters Cam Thomas (5th round pick) and AlericMullins, who successfully plugged the middle of the field over the past few seasons. The loss of Mullins and Thomas is undoubtedly a big blow to the defense; if Carolina also loses Marvin Austin to NCAA violations, defensive tackle could go from a position of extreme strength in 2009 to a liability in 2010—much like Roy Williams’ frontcourt. But coaches have given DE Quentin Coples, now up to 280 lbs, tons of reps at defensive tackle to prepare for a possible Austin suspension. He won’t be completely inexperienced at the position either, since coaches had already penciled him in as a pass-rushing defensive tackle in the Heels’ nickel package.

Redshirt freshman Jared McAdoo (4 star recruit—facing some disciplinary action for having a bibi gun on campus), junior Jordan Nix (3 star recruit—transfer from Oklahoma), and true freshman Brandon Willis (4 star recruit) will also see time in the nose tackle and defensive tackle positions, respectively. Willis, a former Tennessee commit who picked Carolina when Lane Kiffin left Knoxville for USC, enrolled early for Spring Practice and could be inserted as a smaller, pass-rushing defensive tackle in obvious passing situations.

There’s good news and bad news for this unit in 2010. The good news? Two out of the starting front four will likely be drafted in the first round this spring—and, most likely, due to the closing of Cluck University Chicken on Franklin St., the unit will show up at camp in exceptional physical condition. However, if Austin misses this season and Nix, Willis and Jared McAdoo don’t develop quickly— defensive tackle is one of the hardest positions to play without experience— Carolina’s all-star defense might have a bit of a problem on its hands.

Carolina returns tons of pass-rushing prowess and secondary experience this year, much like Florida’s heralded defense last fall, which returned its entire two deep from its 2008 National Title run. But, as Florida fans know, its primary strengths (pass defense, pass rush) forced teams right at its primary weakness (interior run defense), ultimately leading to the Gators’ blowout loss to power-runner Mark Ingram and the Alabama Crimson Tide. Expect teams to avoid Carolina’s speed at end and linebacker by running up the middle, especially when Austin and Powell have rotated out of the game. When Moss sees time at end, offensive coordinators will likely run at him as well, due to his slight frame and even slighter experience.

Aside from developing overall depth(in anticipation of the 2011 exodus of defensive talent), I think the most important issue for this year’s defense is developing depth, specifically behind Austin and Powell.  In a Coastal Division featuring powerful interior runners such as Josh Nesbitt, Anthony Allen, Darren Evans, and Ryan Williams, depth at defensive tackle will be hugely important.  If we don’t find some reliable defensive tackles, you can bet tougher opponents will cram the ball right up the middle, melting the clock, eliminating the risk of big plays by our talented secondary, and forcing Carolina’s offense to score without help from turnovers in the passing game.

Outcome/Predictions:

This group will be the best in the conference and possibly the best in the nation. At least one out of the three inexperienced DTs will emerge as a powerful backup. I wouldn’t be surprised if McAdoo or Coples finishes the season with more TFL and sacks than Quinn, who will face double and triple teams almost every play.

Projected 2010 Statistics (defensive ends):

DE- Quinn (50 tackles, 14 TFL, 7.5 sacks)

DE- McAdoo (51 tackles, 12 TFL, 8 sacks)

DE- Moss (25 tackles, 7 TFL, 5 sacks)

DE- Coples (40 tackles, 11 TFL, 3 sacks)

ACC Coastal DE Rankings

1)      UNC

2)      Miami

3)      Georgia Tech

4)      Virginia Tech

5)      Virginia

6)      Duke

Projected 2010 Statistics (defensive tackles):

DT- Powell (30 tackles, 4 TFL, 3 sacks)

DT- Austin (44 tackles, 7 TFL, 3 sacks)

DT- Willis (14 tackles, 2 TFL)

DT-McAdoo (11 tackles, 4 TFL)

DT- Nix (11 tackles, TFL)

ACC Coastal DT Rankings

1)      Miami

2)      UNC

3)      Virginia Tech

4)      Georgia Tech

5)      Virginia

6)      Duke

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